OLD1953 wrote:Just out of curiosity, anyone besides me expecting a crash of 30 to 50% before the first of November? This last few days look awfully like the start of the final runup to a major drop.
Could be wrong, but this sure feels like the crap is about to hit the fan.
You may be interested in reading the following article title, "Seven More Years of Hard Times?" at
This is by the renowned Robert Schiller of Yale, who apparently is not familiar with "The Fourth Turning" or Generational Dynamics.
Schiller has always struck me as a smart man who isn't overly out-of-touch but of course, he is a Yale professor.
Shiller wrote:Moreover, there are reasons to suggest that this time really might be
different. I hate to say so, not wanting to commit the sin defined by
their “syndrome,” but this time might be different because all of the
modern examples of past crises came during a time when many economists
worldwide were extolling the virtues of the “rational expectations”
model of the economy. This model suggested that a market economy
should be left alone as much as possible, so that is what governments
tended to do.
According to “rational expectations,” bubbles simply did not exist –
which meant that actual bubbles were allowed to grow. But that mindset
is waning, and government and business leaders now routinely warn of
bubbles and adopt policies to counter them. So, this time really is at
least a little different.
Investment banks knew the cash flows from these loans wouldn't be there, but they went ahead anyway. Thus, they are responsible for widespread securities fraud. To keep it going, they created more complex securitizations and got more people involved to cover up the mounting losses that were coming down the pike. This was all known and knowable in advance.
I didn't "forsee" anything. I have no psychic ability. I'm not prescient. I am, however, an analyst, and I know my stuff. So did they. It was fraud.
So, just what sort of "civilization" is Munger trying to preserve?
John wrote:I would caution all but the most sophisticated readers to stay away from buying gold or silver, as metal prices appear to be in a bubble.
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