Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

When I make short term forecasts on stocks and they don't move the way I expect in the time frame I expect, then I'm faced with the decision of whether to take a loss or wait. Short term means about an hour or so. My normal decision is to take the loss. But occasionally I will make a decision to hold overnight and wait, or to wait even longer. This isn't the normal course of action, but I do that on occasion. I do that when it becomes more apparent that the outcome I have forecast will come to pass, but it's just taking longer than normal.

With my longer term forecast that the stock market is going to zero, I had forecast that over the much longer time frame of about 2011 to 2016.
Using the same decision-making process as for short term forecasts above, I evaluated whether the forecast was entirely wrong and I should move on, or whether the forecast will still come to pass, but will take longer than originally anticipated (of course, we know the stock market will go to zero at some point in the future, but it may take centuries or even longer to do so, but that's not what I am evaluating here). As above, I believe that the probability that the stock market will go to zero is actually increasing, but it is taking longer than originally forecast.

[aeden]

https://mises.org/library/pretense-knowledge
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/why-m ... or-fed-act
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B8aH4cRdplE

[Higgenbotham]

https://mises.org/library/pretense-knowledge

Hayek told them, but they refuse to listen.

If man is not to do more harm than good in his efforts to improve the social order, he will have to learn that in this, as in all other fields where essential complexity of an organized kind prevails, he cannot acquire the full knowledge which would make mastery of the events possible. He will therefore have to use what knowledge he can achieve, not to shape the results as the craftsman shapes his handiwork, but rather to cultivate a growth by providing the appropriate environment, in the manner in which the gardener does this for his plants. There is danger in the exuberant feeling of ever-growing power which the advance of the physical sciences has engendered and which tempts man to try, "dizzy with success," to use a characteristic phrase of early communism, to subject not only our natural but also our human environment to the control of a human will. The recognition of the insuperable limits to his knowledge ought indeed to teach the student of society a lesson of humility which should guard him against becoming an accomplice in men's fatal striving to control society — a striving which makes him not only a tyrant over his fellows, but which may well make him the destroyer of a civilization which no brain has designed but which has grown from the free efforts of millions of individuals.

Jerome Powell: (49:02)
After the financial crisis, we started a new whole division of the Fed to focus on financial stability. We look at it from every perspective. The FOMC gets briefed on a quarterly basis. At the board here, we talk about it more or less on an ongoing basis. So, it is something we monitor, but I don’t know that the connection between asset purchases and financial stability is a particularly tight one, but again we won’t be just assuming that; we’ll be checking carefully as we go. And by the way, the kinds of tools that we would use to address those sorts of things are not really monetary policy; it would be more tools that strengthen the financial system.

The first paragraph is 99.7th percentile thinking.

The second paragraph is 97th percentile thinking.

It seems to be a constant in human affairs that The 97th Percentile will refuse to listen to those who know better than them because The 97th Percentile thinks they are the smartest guys in the room.

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=a3J9Dsgt
viewtopic.php?p=55631#p55631
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dp3Q5_9FMC8

thread: amos

A good friend noted out of the reach of the head lights as His promise is to us for some time that is to be.
Truly He tells us the gifts are given at times alone for whom can see the goodness of Truth.
He is coming back for a Bride that will be without spot or blemish.
He is calling His Church to clean up their act and allow His Holy Spirit to begin this deeper sanctifying work in their lives.

However, the choice is up to each individual believer.
I was allowed to see my end and the peace that will be in it until the day.
In time it will be.
All error is mine alone.
When the just rise we will remember why it was thus so.
Galatians 5 tells the us also clearly while you get to the light.
The fight is just beginning and the adversary knows the cost.

[aeden]

The apprehension may be considered as a disease, for which there can be found no cure in the resources of argument and reasoning.
The Federalist Papers : No. 28

America's Economy Cannot Survive Another Lockdown, And The Cult Of The Reset Knows It.

[Higgenbotham]

https://mises.org/library/pretense-knowledge

Hayek told them, but they refuse to listen.

If man is not to do more harm than good in his efforts to improve the social order, he will have to learn that in this, as in all other fields where essential complexity of an organized kind prevails, he cannot acquire the full knowledge which would make mastery of the events possible. He will therefore have to use what knowledge he can achieve, not to shape the results as the craftsman shapes his handiwork, but rather to cultivate a growth by providing the appropriate environment, in the manner in which the gardener does this for his plants. There is danger in the exuberant feeling of ever-growing power which the advance of the physical sciences has engendered and which tempts man to try, "dizzy with success," to use a characteristic phrase of early communism, to subject not only our natural but also our human environment to the control of a human will. The recognition of the insuperable limits to his knowledge ought indeed to teach the student of society a lesson of humility which should guard him against becoming an accomplice in men's fatal striving to control society — a striving which makes him not only a tyrant over his fellows, but which may well make him the destroyer of a civilization which no brain has designed but which has grown from the free efforts of millions of individuals.

Jerome Powell: (49:02)
After the financial crisis, we started a new whole division of the Fed to focus on financial stability. We look at it from every perspective. The FOMC gets briefed on a quarterly basis. At the board here, we talk about it more or less on an ongoing basis. So, it is something we monitor, but I don’t know that the connection between asset purchases and financial stability is a particularly tight one, but again we won’t be just assuming that; we’ll be checking carefully as we go. And by the way, the kinds of tools that we would use to address those sorts of things are not really monetary policy; it would be more tools that strengthen the financial system.

The first paragraph is 99.7th percentile thinking.

The second paragraph is 97th percentile thinking.

It seems to be a constant in human affairs that The 97th Percentile will refuse to listen to those who know better than them because The 97th Percentile thinks they are the smartest guys in the room.

I was surprised to find a link with extensive data which supports this view.

It's from an organization called the Triple Nine Society, which only admits people with IQs proven to be above the 99.9th percentile, and they did an extensive survey of political views among members. It turned out that their members support neither a Democrat nor Republican agenda, but rather lean strongly Libertarian toward very limited government. For example, 94% are in favor of gun ownership at the same time 60% are in favor of minimal restrictions on prostitution.

http://milesresearch.com/tns/summary.htm

So while it may be true that The 97th Percentile tends to support socialism and consider themselves qualified to tell the rest of society what is good for them, those rare individuals with IQs more than one standard deviation above The 97th Percentile do not support those views.

It should be noted, though, that about 150,000 adults in the US would be qualified to join this organization, but it only has about 350 members, so there could be some bias in the results due to the type of person among the high IQ population who would tend to join such an organization.

The majority of survey participants support the status quo for the Federal Reserve, but the survey was done in the early 2000s (October 2000) before the Fed went off the rails or, alternatively, didn't have an extensive history of having gone off the rails. Greenspan was a bit off the rails at the time.

65 __ Federal Reserve Board: Rate on a scale of 1-5
(1= Abolish the Fed, 3= Status quo, 5= Maximum control of interest rates, the money supply and other economic parameters)

Federal Reserve Board
1= 12%
2= 19%
3= 63%
4= 5%
5= 0%

[Higgenbotham]

Biden has named Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary.

The choice was applauded by Wall Street and "progressive" "left-leaning" groups.

According to what I've heard over the years, Yellen as Treasury Secretary would mean:
* Fiscal Stimulus to the max, with further exponential increases in debt and deficits
* Coordination with the Fed to promote massive counterfeiting of money for Wall Street, including direct purchase of stocks
* Slight increases in interest rates only if inflation rages out of control; otherwise, rates pegged at zero as far as the eye can see
* A collapse in the dollar

In other words, more of the same, just on steroids.

[Higgenbotham]

According to what I've heard over the years, Yellen as Treasury Secretary would mean:
* Fiscal Stimulus to the max, with further exponential increases in debt and deficits
* Coordination with the Fed to promote massive counterfeiting of money for Wall Street, including direct purchase of stocks
* Slight increases in interest rates only if inflation rages out of control; otherwise, rates pegged at zero as far as the eye can see
* A collapse in the dollar

Supporting info below.

Ex-Fed Chair Janet Yellen says extraordinary stimulus is needed so long as the pandemic presents an economic threat

Oct. 19, 2020, 01:42 PM

The $2.2 trillion CARES Act and other spending measures were "impressive" and played a major role in starting the US economic recovery, Yellen said on Bloomberg TV. Yet that fiscal relief has expired and the Fed "has already done a huge amount" to keep its support in place. Congress needs to pick up the slack to ensure the nation's rebound stays on track, Yellen said.

"There are some limits [to monetary policy] and it's important for fiscal policy to fill in that gap," the former Fed chief said. "While the pandemic is still seriously affecting the economy, we need to continue extraordinary fiscal support."

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029694850

Yellen says the Fed doesn’t need to buy equities now, but Congress should reconsider allowing it

PUBLISHED MON, APR 6 2020

Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen thinks the central bank is not in a position where it needs to buy equities but thinks lawmakers should give it more leeway for the future.

“It would be a substantial change to give the Federal Reserve the ability to buy stock,” Yellen told CNBC’s Sara Eisen on “Squawk on the Street.” “I frankly don’t think it’s necessary at this point. I think intervention to support the credit markets is more important, but longer term it wouldn’t be a bad thing for Congress to reconsider the powers that the Fed has with respect to assets it can own.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/06/yellen- ... ng-it.html

Yellen’s exit would be good news for the dollar

PUBLISHED TUE, OCT 3 2017

KEY POINTS

The fact that Janet Yellen no longer appears to be a top contender to chair the Fed for another term is positive for the dollar.

The two leading candidates, Kevin Warsh and Fed Gov. Jerome Powell, are viewed as more hawkish than Yellen, and that could mean interest rates would rise, as would the dollar.

https://www.cnbc.com/2017/10/03/yellens ... ollar.html

Wall Street is salivating at the idea of this nut job being at the helm. She's been campaigning for the job all year, saying what Wall Street wants to hear.

You can see how seriously goofy Yellen is when she said during the coronavirus crisis that it's not time for the Fed to buy stock just yet, but we should get everything set up to do it when she takes the helm. She wants to be the first to go down the road of buying stock - that's how nutty she is. She really thinks she can make a name for herself that way. "Just get the crack pipe ready so I can be the first Treasury Secretary to take a hit of crack."

[John]

** 24-Nov-2020 World View: Janet Yellen

> You can see how seriously goofy Yellen is when she said during the
> coronavirus crisis that it's not time for the Fed to buy stock
> just yet, but we should get everything set up to do it when she
> takes the helm. She wants to be the first to go down the road of
> buying stock - that's how nutty she is. She really thinks she can
> make a name for herself that way. "Just get the crack pipe ready
> so I can be the first Treasury Secretary to take a hit of
> crack."

If your core belief is MME ("modern monetary theory"), which says that
the government can borrow an infinite amount of money and never have
to pay it back, then this isn't nutty at all.

Milton Friedman planted the seed for MME, it was taken up and expanded
by Ben Bernanke, and Janet Yellen is simply driving it to its natural
conclusion. As I've written many times, Milton Friedman has been
proven wrong, but nobody wants to believe that. There's nothing
deadlier than when a conservative icon promotes a liberal idea that's
wrong. It's the worst of all possible worlds. You can't blame Yellen
for having a "crack pipe," when the crack pipe is Milton Friedman.

[aeden]

No one questioned the narrative when it comes to nazi-fascism socialism fueled by wall street other than Sutton, which is striking considering that it is written basically by comms and progressives, the same ones that are now trying to strip you of natural rights to even defend yourself. As numbers did indicate more died from 1945 to 1955 as a million was a statistic in Soviet logic just as Xiden47 conveyed only what matters today. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qu7Zrp0gkbQ

https://www.richmondfed.org/~/media/ric ... 700603.pdf
Yet the historical evidence is unambiguous; there was no liquidity shortage and no failure by the Fed to do its job as a banker’s bank. Indeed, the six thousand member banks of the Federal Reserve System did not make heavy use of the discount window during this period and none who presented good collateral were denied access to borrowed reserves. Consequently, commercial banks were not constrained at all in their ability to make loans or generate demand deposits (M1). But from the lofty perch of his library at the University of Chicago three decades later, Professor Friedman determined that the banking system should have been flooded with new reserves, anyway. And this post facto academician’s edict went straight to the heart of the open market operations issue. stockman

The interest of taxpayers matters nothing. Lie Cheat Steal is what they are.
Agency's are compromised and no we do not matter to them or really ever did.
There is no spoon just the deceived and foxholes converts.