Financial topics

[aedens]

STAGE 2. The Slippery Slope for the Optimistic Humans who's mental attitude interprets the situations and events as being best (optimized)
The economy goes into a slow but steadily increasing decline. Unemployment is on the rise. Ever increasing numbers of people receive government assistance in one form or another. People are paid not to work. Government spending has increased dramatically. The price of gold, silver, and other precious metals rise to prices unheard of just a few years earlier. Inflation reaches the double digit levels.
Primary Assets:
1.Cash
2.Precious Metals, Gold and Silver coins
3.Job Stability
4.Elimination of debt
5.Health Insurance
6.Home Equity
7.Automobile with good MPG
8.Acquiring secluded land more than 40 miles from densely populated areas

[John]

From the following article from April, 2008, on my web site:

** Investors back in full bubble mode, after concluding that the crisis is over
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 22#e080422

The LIBOR controversy

Libor -- the London Interbank Offering Rate -- is an international
bank to bank lending interest rates. Libor is determined each day by
the British Bankers Association (BBA) by doing a daily survey of
banks, asking them what interest rates they're charging each other.

A scandal broke out last week, when it was thought that banks were
lying to the BBA about what interest rates they were paying. They
were apparently understating the interest rates, in order to avoid
embarrasment. If this was true, it would mean that the Libor rate was
no longer credible.

On Wednesday of last week, the BBA announced that it would investigate
whether banks were distorting the Libor rate, and would punish any
offenders. As soon as that announcement was made, the Libor rate
spiked up to new highs.

The Libor rate is used by many financial institutions to set other
prices, including the interest rate for home mortgages. So an
increase in the Libor rate is expected to have wide fallout.

John

[OLD1953]

Effect of the healthcare act on business, especially small business - man oh man I'd hate to predict that one. Too many variables for me! I could easily see small business that already has workers insurance profiting by simply dumping it on the workers, which in many cases would be cheaper on the company, and I can easily see companies that have never had healthcare offered just folding rather than even looking at options. And the whole picture is distorted by WAY too much emotional reaction to discount the emotions flying around, I'm absolutely certain that within ten years you'll hear people say "I closed my business because of Obamacare and I'd have kept going if I'd known what I know now". That's a near certainty, emotional decisions are seldom in line with rational decisions. And how many will close shop to get their fifteen minutes of fame and maybe the success of the "guy who owned a plumbing business who didn't actually own a plumbing business but became famous because he had claimed to own a plumbing business"? When people are making rational decisions there are means to predict what the future is most likely to hold. There are no such means in this case, or in many similar cases at this time. Irrationality rules at this time, and has been elevated to the status of a god.

Irrationality rules in the markets as well. When markets rise and fall on the anticipation of free government money being handed out, then there are no real markets, only gamblers pits.

And that applies to almost everything. Beware bargains in anything, because they will very likely lead to losses in real terms. And real terms, in this mad day, can only mean comparison to how much of something else something can purchase.

And beware above all else, those who want to tell you why it's not their fault. When union leaders explain how they "were forced" to give up something, did they really get locked into a room and beaten? When corporate officials say "It's not our fault, we were driven to this by pensions and wages", are they implying the board has no say in wages or pensions or in the amounts set aside for the pension fund? When the President says he had "no choice", was there really no ink in that pen that could have been made to write VETO across a bill? Or are they merely excusing themselves for taking the easy road and the easy out and simply hoping you'll not notice the shenanagins in the background?

[Reality Check]

I'm absolutely certain that within ten years you'll hear people say "I closed my business because of Obamacare and I'd have kept going if I'd known what I know now".

Why would anybody choose to close there small business to avoid Obamacare ?

They will just fire employees to get below 50 employees, and thus be exempt from Obamacare.

Or they will break their business up into multiple businesses of less that 50 employees.

Small businesses are small. They will stay in business and survive. Just with fewer employees for each business.

It is the employees, not the business owners who will be screwed by Obamacare. Many employees will lose their jobs.

Millions of employees will lose their jobs and tens of millions will lose there current health care insurance and end up having crummy government health insurance that requires them to pay thousands of dollars more every year out of pocket for health care.

[Carl Lieberman]

Well, I am happy to say that I have met all 8 of Aedens preparedness list;--) John has said many times that Obamacare is mind numbingly complex and will never be fully implemented. Robert's "favorable" opinion makes it a certainty that it will collapse of its own weight. All of our complex systems are breaking down. After the fourth turning is complete, we will have a much simpler, universal and egalitarian health care system. The "friction" in the system is growing daily. Fewer people are producing wealth to support many more free riders. There was a wonderful blog piece from "of two minds" on zero hedge today that makes it crystal clear why employment is diminishing. John has been spot on concerning the criminality and lack of culpability of the Gen Xers. This guy Diamond from Barclay's has lowered the bar astonishingly. The rats are turning on each other as the ship goes down. We on this site are ever surprised that the system continues to function. The point of a panic, or black swan event, is that it is completely unpredictable. I'm not ready to sign on to a new dark ages of 1000 year infrequency. But a many sigma event is lurking. If John's speculation of just 1% of the interest rate derivatives being litigated is credible, that alone would be undigestible by the system. Just sitting here waiting for the world to change.

[OLD1953]

I'm absolutely certain that within ten years you'll hear people say "I closed my business because of Obamacare and I'd have kept going if I'd known what I know now".

Why would anybody choose to close there small business to avoid Obamacare ?

They will just fire employees to get below 50 employees, and thus be exempt from Obamacare.

Or they will break their business up into multiple businesses of less that 50 employees.

Small businesses are small. They will stay in business and survive. Just with fewer employees for each business.

It is the employees, not the business owners who will be screwed by Obamacare. Many employees will lose their jobs.

Millions of employees will lose their jobs and tens of millions will lose there current health care insurance and end up having crummy government health insurance that requires them to pay thousands of dollars more every year out of pocket for health care.

As I said, it will be due to irrational decisions. A rational decision would be to examine and exercise the most effective option in a given circumstance. Irrational decisions rule the day currently, and people who make such decisions will later regret them.

[aedens]

The spookes have it front covered to complexity risk matrix levels already. Thing got so complicated we had to x size to manage our risk both true and false in the same breath. Years a head of the dialog and you will see it released in media stream of context over time and intent to purpose. Guess what percentage already knows the course plan. Also family's are mailing drugs to family members in the paradise of the socialized euro zones and the senate here wants to follow the lemmenzones. Ungodly sinister to thinking men.
http://xevents.com/x-events-book/

Sun Jun 21, 2009 8:15 pm: European Union leaders met today in Brussels, to discuss the outlook for the European economies. Language in their resulting draft statement points towards a new approach to handling the downturn. "Further budget stimulus would not be warranted and attention should shift toward consolidation, keeping pace with economic recovery," the draft said. The language is a significant change from previous releases, as this is the first widespread acknowledgement of a potential turnaround in the E.U. economy.
Fundamental change indeed...

Soon the dialog will shift as I alluded to also in the corporate bond issues recently... John made the context clear a few days ago on the avenue forward.
The collapse of the Doha round after ten years of negotiation has called into question the credibility of the WTO and revealed the absence of a plan B. However, world trade is now advancing through alternative and complementary regional and bilateral agreements.

Bingo Old, Irrational decisions rule the day currently, and people who make such decisions will later regret them.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 900#p14253
Patience to see if the red or blue hang themselves or how long until taxpayers grow up. I do not expect the taxpayer to ever get it
but would illustrate how you will be treated, ask Greece on polarised politics without identity of purpose. A simple lesson of the old
book was equally yoked.

http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 910#p14257 yes, H this is a design of pure intent as we know.
Prepare we have since alot the the herd will enable Cognitive neuroscience crap soon. Meanwhile we have important work to do.
Same old stuff different day. How do we lessen health cost, put skin the game given the sign of the times and the Senate reads
bills later. Unreal as they vote this mindless towers of Babel. When do they understand more want to left alone than those who
take with no impunity.
http://www.opensecrets.org/overview/index.php
Too many variables for me! I agree but our duty is clear since if we have any bias at all, it's that we're pro-American.

[aedens]

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/ ... DL20120703
So it spreads.

With the American economy rapidly sinking, only fake economic data created by laundering fake money through US economy pretending that the US economy is growing, whole cities are declaring themselves bankrupt as there is no money left, because it’s al been STOLEN by the bankers and military spending. Bye, bye US economy. You have elected economic nut-jobs as leaders*, now you’re paying the price. * Keynesian economics DOES NOT WORK, NEVER HAS, NEVER WILL. Recorded from Sky News, 22 December 2011. http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=pl ... 3yeafBNLQo#!

As we have observed Private and especially public morality are equated with ‘rightly understood utility’, in the sense that the pursuit of virtue invariably results in lasting achievements. This is the lesson of history. circa 1797–1818 Sismondi
Today's interpetation of his work is a crime. To Covet, as I have seen and we know is not judged lightly.

[Reality Check]

I'm absolutely certain that within ten years you'll hear people say "I closed my business because of Obamacare and I'd have kept going if I'd known what I know now".

Why would anybody choose to close there small business to avoid Obamacare ?

They will just fire employees to get below 50 employees, and thus be exempt from Obamacare.

Or they will break their business up into multiple businesses of less that 50 employees.

Small businesses are small. They will stay in business and survive. Just with fewer employees for each business.

As I said, it will be due to irrational decisions. A rational decision would be to examine and exercise the most effective option in a given circumstance. Irrational decisions rule the day currently, and people who make such decisions will later regret them.

That is simply circular logic.

If you say people will do it because they are crazy, or irrational or whatever excuse, you are avoiding logic.

A certain percentage of small businesses fail every year. The life expectancy of a new small business has always been very, very short.

The statement that "I'm absolutely certain that within ten years you'll hear people say 'I closed my business because little green aliens from another dimession are going to invade and I'd have kept going if I'd known what I know now".

Could be just as easily defended by the same "irrational behavior" excuse.

What you are really saying is "there is NO REASON any rational person would close their small business for the reason you stated", and I agree with that.

[Higgenbotham]

http://www.businessinsider.com/citi-tom ... 007-2012-7

I've noticed this pattern too. Being 5 years closer to the crisis, it would seem the market would be unable to hold up as well as it did in late 2007. Yet, it is doing so.