"There was 10.9 million in SPY 10 minute volume to the downside on the release of the Chicago PMI, the highest since May 18. The Chicago PMI has been down 3 months with the moving average down 2 months. When the PMI and the moving average are down 3 months this has forecast 7 out of 7 recessions, with the recessions starting in an average of 6-8 months."
Now here are the notes I took Friday (June 29) on the release of the Chicago PMI:
"Today the Chicago PMI was released. From the Chicago Purchasing Managers website:
June 2012 Today the Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the business barometer stabilized just above May's 33 month low. The short term trend of the Chicago Business Barometer fell for the third month. The three month moving average of each Business Activity Index, except Employment, fell.
The S&P futures sold off a couple points on the release of this report, making a low 11 minutes after the release, then continued higher all day, rising 16 points from that low."
Chicago business index at lowest level since 2009
May 31, 2012|Jeffry Bartash
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - An index that meaures business conditions in the Chicago region fell in May to the lowest level since September 2009. The Chicago Business Barometer dropped 3.5 points to a seasonally adjusted 52.7 in May from 56.2 in April, according to the Chicago Purchasing Managers. While any number above 50 signifies that businesses are still expanding, the Chicago PMI has fallen three straight months. The production index fell 7.1 points, following a 11.5 drop in April. New orders declined 4.5 points to 52.9. The compilers of the report noted that three consecutive declines in the monthly PMI or the three-month rolling average have occurred before each of the last seven recessions, with a lead time of about six to eight months. The rolling average has only fallen two straight months, however.
I believe you can all read between the lines here.Chicago PMI inches higher in June
June 29, 2012|Steve Goldstein
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A measure of Chicago-area manufacturing conditions in June edged higher, according to ISM-Chicago. The Chicago PMI increased to 52.9% from May levels of 52.7%. Economists polled by MarketWatch anticipated a reading of 53.0%. There was a sizable rebound of production, a slight deterioration in new orders and a further decline in order backlogs as well as an improvement in employment and slower supplier deliveries, the group said. Any reading above 50% indicates expansion.