Financial topics

[John]

** 18-Nov-2019 Writing a best seller

> I'm continuing to smash the bots in the futures markets. For the
> past several months, I have averaged one or two losing days per
> month day trading the futures. However, as you know, I am also
> holding a large short position that is losing money. As a result
> of that, I am now down versus where I was in May, but not by
> much. Since May 3, the S&P futures are up 170 points and I have
> lost 7 points. But the rise has been slow and if it accelerates in
> blowoff fashion, my losses will steepen almost for sure.

> My broker (who has been in the business close to 3 decades) has
> told me several times that I am the only client he has ever had
> who can successfully day trade the market and there is nobody else
> he has seen try who has even come close. That's the real
> world. Successful day traders are extremely rare. And, like I
> said, I have not been able to beat the market and will not be able
> to unless it collapses while I am holding a large short
> position. That remains to be seen and I believe there is still a
> reasonable chance that they will take me out.

> If the markets crash big and I'm lucky enough to be on it when it
> happens (and have the proof to show in the book), I may write a
> book. Part of the book will deal with forum sentiment and how to
> use it to make money (other forums, not this one). The book
> probably won't sell enough copies to make it worthwhile.

I totally disagree. A book on how to day trade successfully would
interest millions of people who would see it as a way to make money.

You could include information on the best way to weather the coming
global financial crisis. You could base this on history of previous
crises, plus your own extensive knowledge of the markets.

You would have to resolve the ethical and moral issue that your
book would be appealing to gambling addicts. So you would have
to include guidance and advice on this subject.

If you got this book out quickly (i.e., before any major financial
crisis), then your book would appeal to day traders now, and later it
would appeal to people who are trying to survive the financial crisis,
and thereafter.

You have a unique set of knowledge that a lot of people would be
interested in.

[aeden]

Uncertainty Principle is based on a series of bank robberies, solved with the assistance of an Arkansas mathematician.
Pattern recognition is not impossible and book 4 yes was closed in since the model said so.

When you ignore facts you are still subject to them.
The value was book 4 lost .0412 if memory for the post rings correct.

The logic was sound and not binary.
When the do no harm principle was ignored the results was factually predicted.

The discussion with H was if you put 5 bucks in basically you can fund .05 into book 4
He posted the repo note results to confirm what we already knew that early is wrong
but as he posted what is actually running the show.

We know the behavior processes of the sheep pens and the principal of the wolves and sheep of GD also
as the sheepdogs have select areas to protect only in the first place.

Behold, I send you out as sheep in the midst of wolves. Therefore be wise as serpents and harmless as doves.

I cannot return to Rome since that was not my mission.

Book four was not a failure it was closed for local needs.
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 690#p48392

Book four will be reopened to refund other issues from dcf discipline.

[aeden]

Rule 5: I did not include the ghost or the 1953 spook files for brevity.

Associate - them - with unpopular titles such as “kooks”, “right-wing”, “liberal”, “left-wing”, “terrorists”, “conspiracy buffs”, “radicals”, “militia”, “racists”, “religious fanatics”, “sexual deviates”, pessimistic and so forth.

The politics of envy cover are they just lucky or good.
That is from the Stamford Philosophical Depository.

Book three I closed permanently was the option strategy indexed the vix notes.
It took over three years for it to implode and will look for the inception date as noted.

Yea it went boom from t h and ae files studies.
G had some crucial points and the fdic contagion files that pushed it forward also.

.99019 tracking trend on bot
hunter - seeker - inception date Mon Nov 16, 2009 7:13 pm Observation: Farming Culture -ALG's lucust's Vs. Hunter Culture - DCA seekers

The spread error "mine" since all math is wrong was a feature since the paper tiger files.

As we also consider as the four levels of thoughts into it as it relays to the point that Paul made it clear that there was one event that the believers could look for that had to happen before the "catching away of the saints" (in Greek it is called the harpazo). Since all seasons belong to Him we just attempted to humble our self to avoid the the consequences of avoiding what is actually being ignored going into this the judgement window.
No they will not understand since one point remains. Yes Daniel was told to seal that segment since if you cannot admit who Authored that view that still your issues and not His to events that we can understand as. I do not know and by faith we have avoided His direct wrath to date so far but understand no one is just as we learn his appointed times and actual seasons already written.
As we are reminded Paul uses three distinct features to make sure that we are talking about one, single event even in that time.

[aeden]

This problem was resolved through a carrot and stick approach. The stick is uncleared trades carry a capital charge, and the carrot is that the exchanges offer very attractive "netting". What netting means is that banks can give details of all their trades to a third party, and any circular trades can then be netted off thus requiring less margin.

As we have noted also we will have to wait and see what populates into April since we have a value of the ratio seen going into it H.
Last time the ratio was seen as who got the LME interest. It is always who, not what happened will stay the course for now.
I do not bark at caravans since it conveys segments only. I will read Bagehot instead.
Carry your book 4 and do feed it from dca as I will return to it also - over time.

[aeden]

Bill Cooper about Karl Marx. https://youtu.be/HuGJYNLHWMI

Ted Flynn, in his book "Hope of the Wicked" also discusses Karl Marx.
Two of Marx's own children and one son-in-law committed suicide. Ted Flynn also explains that Marx basically popularized the ideas of Adam Weishaupt.

They never seen even a candle in the darkness. As we conveyed the word was true to his afflictions. Pity not anger has to suffice to the body farm
for now.

Bezmenov: Deception Was My Job
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y3qkf3bajd4

[Higgenbotham]

** 18-Nov-2019 Writing a best seller

I totally disagree. A book on how to day trade successfully would
interest millions of people who would see it as a way to make money.

This is a massive industry with hundreds or maybe even thousands of people trying get a piece of it. From what I've been told, it's very difficult.

The most common way it's tried, of course, is through the newsletter service which became popular after the dissolution of Bretton Woods and was possible without the Internet.

But now, with the internet, there are:

Subscription chat rooms with real time commentary
Subscription services with several online updates per day
Automated trading systems that auto execute trades in your account when the bot (or human sometimes!) says to buy or sell

Probably not coincidentally, with the advent of the Internet, one of the most highly acclaimed short term trading books, written in 1996, hasn't even come out with a second edition despite the fact that a used copy of this book sells for $299 and the Kindle version is $199:
https://www.amazon.com/Street-Smarts-Pr ... 0965046109
Shortly after this book was published, Linda started operating a chat room. Around the year 2000, I wasn't trading like I do now, but you could get into her chat room for free one day per week. That may still be possible.

It's a long, long way from reading a book or a chat to becoming a consistently winning day trader. Having read a few books to get an engineering degree, I think that would be easier for most people than trying to become a consistently winning day trader.

I've never read a book on day trading, but most of what I know likely isn't in any book and I don't want to put it out there until after the fact.

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=eVL5dWjx

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOu07mxfmJk

[aeden]

https://geraldcelentesblog.blogspot.com/2019/

Free Corzine files.

[Higgenbotham]

The best way for a novice to short term trade, in my opinion, is the following.

Open a stock account with zero commission. As of this year, that is now possible for anyone.

Try to have no positions in your account at day end.

Before the market open, read the news that has impacted individual stocks since the previous New York close. It may be earnings news, changes in personnel, lawsuits, buyouts in the industry, or something else.

Look at the pre-market to see how the news has affected the stock. Most platforms won't give you charts of the after hours and pre-market but you will need them.

Now you will have to move fast before the New York open takes place. You will need to characterize each stock and quickly determine how the news should have affected the price. You are looking for stocks that are out of alignment with how the news should be affecting price. Buy or short the stocks that are most out of alignment very carefully. What you are looking for here is where the mindless bots have taken price several short term standard deviations from where it should be, and they do that. It may take several days for price to right itself so you may not even do anything the first several days. The herd can spend a long time mindlessly trampling a stock. A great recent example is ALGN - take a look. With some experience, you'll get a feel for that.

Most all of the bot smashing I did that was posted last year was done using this technique. As posted, my win rate was about 85% and dollar losses on any similar sized block averaged about twice dollar wins. In other words, when you're wrong, you have to pull the plug and to get a 85% you have to be a sniper. When a stock is moving 10 or 20 percent being off by 5 percent doesn't cut it.

As far as how I trade futures, that is completely different but I incorporate elements of that into trading individual stocks.

[Higgenbotham]

However, the most interesting thing is your observation that
the bots seem to be getting worse compared to humans. How could
that be happening?

Here's an example of how it happens. Let's say a piece of news hits during the market session: "It was announced today that Steve Jobs has cancer. Rumor has it that it is a rare form of pancreatic cancer." Right before the news hits, the stock is trading at $200 per share. The trader has to decide very quickly what this new information means for the value of the stock. In my experience, the bots have extreme difficulty making these estimates. The only thing they seem to understand is "down" or at best "down until it starts going back up a lot". Now let's say a similar piece of news hits a few months later involving a different level person at a different company. In my experience, the bots are unable to see the nuances between the 2 situations, I think partly because factors outside the actual news also come into play. With a greater percentage of trading volume being bot trading, there is more cluelessness in the market in these types of situations. It becomes difficult for the bots to even know whether a previous market response was appropriate in order to try to gauge what a future response should be.

The bots have really messed up the market.

With the breaking trade news or really any news that impacts the overall market but especially the trade news, it's the same type of thing. The market doesn't seem to be anchored to anything. When the crash comes, it will be horrific, in my opinion.