Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

I keep reading that there is no current bubble in the US economy. The standard commentary is that there was an internet bubble in 2000, a housing bubble in 2007, and no current bubble; therefore everything is great and it really is different this time.

I mean, you've got to be kidding.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGCCSAQ027S#0

https://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0006 ... -care-oecd
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

John
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Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 18-Aug-2019 The Bubble
Higgenbotham wrote: > I keep reading that there is no current bubble in the US economy.
> The standard commentary is that there was an internet bubble in
> 2000, a housing bubble in 2007, and no current bubble; therefore
> everything is great and it really is different this time.

> I mean, you've got to be kidding.

> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FGCCSAQ027S#0

> https://www.pgpf.org/chart-archive/0006 ... -care-oecd
This has been a bubble since 1996. It's amazing how long a bubble can
last before it bursts. Analysts don't call it a bubble because their
"historical" models go back only 20 years, so that's why everyone is
panicked when the bubble bursts.

PS: Watch out for that St Louis fed graph of an exponential value
on a linear scale, which leads to a misleading chart.

Higgenbotham
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Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Even Gary Shilling said in June that there is no current bubble in the proportions of 2000 and 2007 (Real Vision interview publicly available). And he has been at this game for 40-50 years.

He did, however, say that the US is already in recession but it would be a standard run of the mill recession with the S&P bottoming out at about 200 points below the December 2018 low before it moves onward and upward during the next recovery.

In addition:

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2019-0 ... ummary.pdf

And there are many more charts providing evidence that this is a larger bubble than 2000 or 2007, or that there are larger shortfalls (pension funding, for example).
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 18-Aug-2019 The Bubble
Higgenbotham wrote: > Even Gary Shilling said in June that there is no current bubble in
> the proportions of 2000 and 2007 (Real Vision interview publicly
> available). And he has been at this game for 40-50 years.
I've really come to the conclusion that everyone on TV is lying,
because otherwise they wouldn't be on TV.

People on the left say that a recession is coming, so that Trump will
be defeated. People on the right say that people predicting a
recession are fear-mongers who are trying to bring the President down.

It's obvious to anyone who took Economics 1.01 that we're in a bubble,
and that it's going to burst, leading to a recession or worse, no
matter what Trump or the Fed do.

People on the left can't say that because that would mean they can't
blame Trump. People on the right can't say that because it would mean
that Trump is powerless.

I have the news on tv most of the day (BBC, RFI, MS-NBC, Fox,
Al-Jazeera, CNBC, Bloomberg, FBN), but I find myself hitting the mute
button more and more because everything they say is utter nonsense.

So Gary Shilling is saying that there's no bubble? Well, that's just
his way of getting on tv. Say what people want you to say, and you're
recognized as a genius. Say what's actually going on, and you're
shunned. That's how the world works today.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote:** 18-Aug-2019 The Bubble

So Gary Shilling is saying that there's no bubble? Well, that's just
his way of getting on tv. Say what people want you to say, and you're
recognized as a genius. Say what's actually going on, and you're
shunned. That's how the world works today.
My thought is that when somebody like Shilling won't even say it's a bubble (who's next, David Rosenberg?), then a graph of number of economists saying it's not a bubble versus time has reached bubble proportions.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

The equity premium puzzle refers to the inability of an important class of economic models to explain the average premium of a well-diversified U.S. equity portfolio over U.S. Treasury Bills observed for more than 100 years.

The puzzle has led to an extensive research effort in both macroeconomics and finance. So far a range of useful theoretical tools and numerically plausible explanations have been presented, but no one solution is generally accepted by economists.


Since G‑d created his world with symmetry, everything that exists on the positive side has a negative counterpart.
The equivalent of Moses was Balaam it was said later.

We live with nothing new under the Sun as noted. The betters of our life are convinced they are correct.
Balak's anger was measured in payments to make a problem go away.
I do not consider Fiat with us in the middle a choice to gauges of sentiment since as we have seen only one at a time
they may regain sanity only.
Futures in Asia suggested two day clam. As we both have conveyed also correct no clue.
We are unlucky enough to be correct more than few want to admit.

First sort
FCFY (Free Cash Flow Yield) is an indicator that compares free cash flow and market cap.
It is a representation of the income (free cash flow) created by an investment.

FCFY = Annualized Free Cash Flow per Share / Market Capitalization

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

DB equity is the instruments that is the expectation for first use money.
https://store.mises.org/Human-Action-Th ... -P119.aspx
Taxpayers are just bonus ought toys.
---- Hume on "Is" and "Ought". It is a part of his saying that morality is derived from sentiment, rather than reason. Morality is not (according to Hume) independent of perception; it is essentially an emotional reaction to things rather than something located in the things judged to be moral or immoral. ---
GE was expecting the same treatment as it was looted. Pirate Jack the looter knew if the change outside is greater
then the inside its already been over.
Short it until if vomits blood after they stuff fiat into its very dark places ordained by Kalergi logic.

Symptoms of excess debt and fundamental problems. Those problems will not go away as it is a feature.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/19/the-ceo ... ctive.html
$31million plus options is the pay of one of its algo crew handlers.
No we do not hold bank stocks its infected with a special disease and no cure will ever be available.
AI and Girard's theory cover the framework. They are looting plain and simple.

Several types of AI technology are available and they are already obsolete and simply looters.

https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792 ... g%2019.jpg

As with the script and H being spot on the accurate flutter observation do not run and if your in the middle of the herd simply walk slowly to a ridge away from the herd would be basic and and correct. t notes correctly as my view also over time the lower we grind, the more needs to be
sold creating a virtuous feedback loop which lasts at least as long as there is no adverse tweet.
That sentiment of hot money is being looted and yes the adherents news cult will not find a solution after the moneys gone since it will be pumped in back door to the essence of the issue they developed in the place. IP theft and it looks like The office may be addressing this issue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-G8KmNF-xc4

aeden
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Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »


aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

retrogrades

That was my thought after I heard leftists seemingly coordinated in their enthusiasm for a recession last Wednesday.
That was my thought after I heard rightist seemingly coordinated in their enthusiasm for a recession last Wednesday.

It is only a spoiled, misbehaving child hoping somehow to still have dessert. June 12th, 2016

July 2019 Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 164,000 in July, and the unemployment
rate was unchanged at 3.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported
today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and technical services,
health care, social assistance, and financial activities.

He will lead them to springs of living water, and God will wipe away every tear from their eyes.

Convert, pay or die.

As watchers on the wall they will not leave us be.
As we know the two will come in His time now.

aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

Sunday, 31 October 2004 admin

And nobody sends troops against poor settlements, but the people, their families, and their infrastructure are destroyed just the same. Consider some current revelations concerning life in poverty-stricken areas of Appalachia, the Mississippi delta, backwoods subsistence farms, and urban ghettos. Consider the broken-down housing, substandard schools, insufficient police, shortened life spans, endemic diseases, family disintegration, and almost non-existent social services in some of these places. Isn’t the result about the same as if we had sent troops against them?

It’s time for America to wake up. It’s time for Christians to add economic justice to their lists of concerns for humankind. It’s time for churches to realize that more charity, good as it is, will not deal effectively with problems of poverty and destitution. It’s time for persons of faith to take up the prophetic imperative against injustice, oppression, inequity, lying propaganda, and social indifference, wherever they are found. It’s time for politicians to realize that they cannot continue to ignore the cries of the ever-increasing numbers of poor, homeless, and under-employed in the land of plenty if they hope to continue in power. And finally, it’s time for business to conclude that the god of efficiency is not all there is, and that if they continue to export jobs all over the earth, who then will buy their products and services?
Last Updated Saturday, 19 November 2005

11 year project sold and 5 years on that later the value added to china water reclamation application project shift from it.
Over 300 million lifted from dirt floors.
Last edited by aeden on Wed Aug 21, 2019 9:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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