Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

> When I read this news, my first thought was that it reminds me of
> Ohio Life August 24, 1857. Or maybe NH Wolfe August 11,
> 1857.

There's also the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. The Fed responded
by flooding the markets with liquidity. Presumably, we can expect the
BOE to do something similar in reaction to the Carillion collapse.
The question is whether central banks are running out of bullets.

What made me think of 1857 is that this is not a bank or a financial institution and that's where it gets interesting. We know they didn't do bailouts in 1857 and so far we know that when Carillion asked for a bailout from the British government over the weekend they were told no. We also know (I'm pretty sure I have this right) that the Fed told the banks (a few years back) that they will not get a bailout next time and that was the reason for the stress tests. I haven't read the BOE will align with the Fed on that, but it's been my assumption. What we don't know is what they will really do if this spreads, depending on how it spreads (actually my guess is it stays contained for now).

[aeden]

Yea, we utilized the solar cycle for the Alfalfa to get root since as we see on this ending cycle as another bitter cold effects
we know for our region. Imagine that working, again...
We approached -8 as a warm-up and normal in this cycle, and another three years or so years since two is rounded lag effect
of the pacific trends we fly overs trend also. The locals note in March maybe the upper air stream moves for us where it belongs.
As for the market we will see soon enough how the dialectical forces consume any is much spillover as commodity price
headwinds are factored in. Avoid debt since it is never about the tax payer as the effective tax rate papered over
recent affairs and I think the 19th is the budget for the MICswampsters and PC Marxist cults orgy.

[John]

> What made me think of 1857 is that this is not a bank or a
> financial institution and that's where it gets interesting. We
> know they didn't do bailouts in 1857 and so far we know that when
> Carillion asked for a bailout from the British government over the
> weekend they were told no. We also know (I'm pretty sure I have
> this right) that the Fed told the banks that they will not get a
> bailout next time and that was the reason for the stress tests. I
> haven't read the BOE will align with the Fed on that, but it's
> been my assumption. What we don't know is what they will really do
> if this spreads, depending on how it spreads.

Well ... yes ... but, but, but .... when faced with a major crisis,
won't that "no" turn to a "yes"?

[aeden]

The affairs have been scripted since fiat has one purpose only as first use asset management.
Taxpayers have as much rights as Marxist counting fruit to tax before its picked.

[Higgenbotham]

> What made me think of 1857 is that this is not a bank or a
> financial institution and that's where it gets interesting. We
> know they didn't do bailouts in 1857 and so far we know that when
> Carillion asked for a bailout from the British government over the
> weekend they were told no. We also know (I'm pretty sure I have
> this right) that the Fed told the banks that they will not get a
> bailout next time and that was the reason for the stress tests. I
> haven't read the BOE will align with the Fed on that, but it's
> been my assumption. What we don't know is what they will really do
> if this spreads, depending on how it spreads.

Well ... yes ... but, but, but .... when faced with a major crisis,
won't that "no" turn to a "yes"?

My first thought there is that goes back to my comment on the contango in the stock index futures markets. That may be a lot more serious than anyone realizes. The reason a stock index futures contract a year out is normally in contango (priced higher) is because interest rates exceed the dividend yield of the index. But right now they don't so what is this telling us? Might it be that there is a possibility of a massive spike in interest rates? So that may be what they are grappling with. The possibility that more bailouts will cause a panic in the bond market, whereas there is no evidence of an impending panic in the stock market.

To see if the no might turn into a yes we would probably need to watch interest rates as stocks fall. And if long term interest rates don't fall, that no might continue to be a no.

[Higgenbotham]

I should also say I am not in my best element here. Back in 2007, having been involved in real estate, I understood how the speculation in the real estate market would spill over into the stock market when most people didn't. The current situation not so much.

How much they can press the bailouts without causing the bond market to collapse I have no idea. Or whether interest rates can still fall as stocks fall or fall enough I have no idea. All I know is that long term interest rates have been going up and people are nervous about it.

[Higgenbotham]

10 year US Treasury Note yield has doubled in the past 18 months from a long term low. Looks like it could break out to a new short term high.

[aeden]

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01- ... der-minute

The only thing we seen is the effective tax rate we mentioned of around 22 percent and the ignored paradise papers.

The spillover from south america could be a large shock as the brits fade into diaspora since even the isles will not survive the

upcoming wheat from the chaff events more than few contend. I cannot eliminate China from the debt vortex just as we cannot escape

ours going into budget in a few days from now.

As we noted the second rail of China One is being laid and last time the event failed was dated 1202 AD when the west was cut out.

All we have done is maintain energy joint cluster nodse to keep things stable given political discord since we know malice and stupidity

are only measured as opportunity costs in real time managements.

[Higgenbotham]

Yea, we utilized the solar cycle for the Alfalfa to get root since as we see on this ending cycle as another bitter cold effects
we know for our region. Imagine that working, again...
We approached -8 as a warm-up and normal in this cycle, and another three years or so years since two is rounded lag effect
of the pacific trends we fly overs trend also. The locals note in March maybe the upper air stream moves for us where it belongs.
As for the market we will see soon enough how the dialectical forces consume any is much spillover as commodity price
headwinds are factored in. Avoid debt since it is never about the tax payer as the effective tax rate papered over
recent affairs and I think the 19th is the budget for the MICswampsters and PC Marxist cults orgy.

One thought I've had is perhaps the solar cycle hasn't taken hold yet because human activity and emotion mostly correlates to the temperature effects which may have been neutralized by warming effects. Again, I am out of my element on this one, which is why I didn't take action in accordance with the sunspot cycles, but it would be my inclination to think that if a Maunder or Gleissberg minimum overtakes the warming effects causing more quickly than historical temperature changes as we've seen in the past month perhaps, then the slide in the stock market could be steeper due to that effect.

[aeden]

Rates are ike Michael Cimino's 1978 Vietnam War classic "The Deer Hunter" as the back channel chatter needed to keep the natives entertained with a twist of cold fact. Both know status quo keeps them swimming since the Keynesian Veil was the velvet rope needed to keep commodities
flowing. Wage arbiters always run out fuel as compromise consumes both value and our time.

Always reminds me of John's picture of the egg fried in the pan as the ideological mutants suffer the rest.

http://www.carbonated.tv/news/venezuela ... ttle-rocks

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDK0xdiHBcQ