Financial topics

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
aeden
Posts: 12353
Joined: Sat Jul 31, 2010 12:34 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by aeden »

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/next-gamma-squeeze
vin
dication on your puts
march of the penguins

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=60415&hilit=chariot#p60415

thread: c3st4AD69-0

richard5za
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

On an hourly chart the Nikkei has been making a series of lower highs since the beginning of April. In the past the Nikkei has been reasonably predictive of global markets

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 20-Apr-2021 World View: Seven weeks
richard5za wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:21 am
> On an hourly chart the Nikkei has been making a series of lower
> highs since the beginning of April. In the past the Nikkei has
> been reasonably predictive of global markets
A panic later this month would fit into my speculation about the panic
that occurred on October 28, 1929. Why did it occur then, rather than
a few months earlier or later? I've speculated that it was because
that date was seven weeks after the end of the third quarter, and so
third quarter earnings were being announced, and those seven weeks
were enough for investors to understand that stocks were not going to
continue going up.

So we're now approaching seven weeks after the end of the first
quarter, so the same speculation might apply.

richard5za
Posts: 893
Joined: Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:29 am
Location: South Africa

Re: Financial topics

Post by richard5za »

John wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:33 am
** 20-Apr-2021 World View: Seven weeks
richard5za wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 10:21 am
> On an hourly chart the Nikkei has been making a series of lower
> highs since the beginning of April. In the past the Nikkei has
> been reasonably predictive of global markets
A panic later this month would fit into my speculation about the panic
that occurred on October 28, 1929. Why did it occur then, rather than
a few months earlier or later? I've speculated that it was because
that date was seven weeks after the end of the third quarter, and so
third quarter earnings were being announced, and those seven weeks
were enough for investors to understand that stocks were not going to
continue going up.

So we're now approaching seven weeks after the end of the first
quarter, so the same speculation might apply.
October 28 is 28 days after September 30 so I think you meant to write 4 weeks? Its a good speculation and probably the best one ever advanced. I have always put it down to the mystery of herd behaviour; one sheep causes the whole lot to flee

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 20-Apr-2021 World View: Seven weeks
richard5za wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:01 am
> October 28 is 28 days after September 30 so I think you meant to
> write 4 weeks? Its a good speculation and probably the best one
> ever advanced. I have always put it down to the mystery of herd
> behaviour; one sheep causes the whole lot to flee
Yikes!! Where did seven weeks come from? The seven weeks comes from
the fact that the Dow reached a peak on 9/3/1929, then fell steadily
for seven weeks until the panic.

** Great Depression and Dow Jones Industrial Average
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... i.djia.htm


I completely forgot about all that stuff , and it probably means that
the same speculation does not apply to the current situation, or at
least has to be reanalyzed. Sorry about that.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

John wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:43 am
** 20-Apr-2021 World View: Seven weeks
richard5za wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 11:01 am
> October 28 is 28 days after September 30 so I think you meant to
> write 4 weeks? Its a good speculation and probably the best one
> ever advanced. I have always put it down to the mystery of herd
> behaviour; one sheep causes the whole lot to flee
Yikes!! Where did seven weeks come from? The seven weeks comes from
the fact that the Dow reached a peak on 9/3/1929, then fell steadily
for seven weeks until the panic.

** Great Depression and Dow Jones Industrial Average
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... i.djia.htm


I completely forgot about all that stuff , and it probably means that
the same speculation does not apply to the current situation, or at
least has to be reanalyzed. Sorry about that.

Here's another way to look at it.

As you said, the Dow reached a peak on 9/3/1929. Last year, the S&P 500 reached a peak on 9/2/2020. In both cases, there was a low in late October. In 1929 it was a crash low and in 2020 it was a correction low.

After that, in both cases, the market rose until April. In 1929 it was a correction of the crash, reaching a secondary high on April 17, 1930. In 2020, it was a continuation of the bull market, possibly reaching a final bull market high on April 16, 2021.

The commonality is that in both 1929/1930 and 2020/2021 the two highs are the same number of days apart, provided the April 16, 2021 high holds.

Image

Image
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

There's another feature of the first move down from the April 1930 secondary high that is interesting, that being that it ended on May 5, 1930. It was a pretty big move down from April 17 to May 5, 1930 - about 20%.

80 years after that drop to May 5, 1930 there was the Flash Crash of May 6, 2010. That came 14 months after the March 6, 2009 low, which was the end of the 2007 to 2009 bear market.

On March 23, 2020 there was also a low and the market burst higher in a similar way to after the March 6, 2009 low.

This leads me to believe that there might be a crash sometime in May.

Also, the recent comments on the World View News thread indicate World War III may be starting in May.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Higgenbotham wrote:
Fri May 29, 2020 10:55 am
The 90% of the population is confused by propaganda such as "Who Moved My Cheese?" where they are told that if their cheese (jobs) gets moved, they just need to get off their lazy asses and find more cheese.
Higgenbotham wrote:
Sat Dec 22, 2012 12:27 pm
When life sustaining productive jobs are moved out of the country, someone can write a book called "Who Moved My Cheese?" and it sells a lot of copies and people are convinced that they don't need productive jobs, just "cheese", when they really do need productive jobs.
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021 ... telligence

Article entitled "The Repressive Politics of Emotional Intelligence"

In this article, the author explains how the book "Emotional Intelligence" is more propaganda designed to keep the bottom 90% in line. It came out about the same time as "Who Moved My Cheese? and appears to have been put out for similar reasons. The author points out that when Americans are pissed off due to poverty, lack of job opportunities and other mistreatment, one of the standard lines in the toolkit of the privileged class is more name-calling - that these justifiably pissed off individuals lack "emotional intelligence".

I always thought "Emotional Intelligence" was written and adopted solely to give stupid managers and others in the privileged class cover. Even though their IQs are obviously too low for them to be in the positions they are in, they imply they are there (and you're not) because they have this absolutely essential hard to define quality called EQ (consider the idiot Barack Obama as an example of this) which is so much more important than IQ. I remember one incompetent goldbrick manager telling me that I couldn't possibly ever understand the nuances of all the politics that she so adroitly dealt with.
It is a vision of personal freedom achieved, paradoxically, through constant self-regulation. “Emotional Intelligence” imagines a world constituted of little more than a series of civil interactions between employer and employee, husband and wife, friend and neighbor. People are linked by nothing more than, as Foucault summarized, the “instinct, sentiment, and sympathy” that underwrite their mutual success and their shared “repugnance for the misfortune of individuals” who cannot get a grip on their inner lives.

The concept of emotional intelligence arose when the global economy was undergoing a sharp structural transformation, with the decline of manufacturing and the expansion of the service sector in the world’s largest markets.

Reference:
John wrote:
Sun Oct 28, 2012 12:42 pm
I believe that what Obama said is that he can't solve a quadratic
equation no matter how much time he has, even with his daughter's
textbook in front of him.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

John
Posts: 11479
Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
Contact:

Re: Financial topics

Post by John »

** 20-Apr-2021 World View: Macro- and Micro-Patterns
Higgenbotham wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 2:52 pm
> Here's another way to look at it.

> As you said, the Dow reached a peak on 9/3/1929. Last year, the
> S&P 500 reached a peak on 9/2/2020. In both cases, there was a low
> in late October. In 1929 it was a crash low and in 2020 it was a
> correction low.

> After that, in both cases, the market rose until April. In 1929 it
> was a correction of the crash, reaching a secondary high on April
> 17, 1930. In 2020, it was a continuation of the bull market,
> possibly reaching a final bull market high on April 16, 2021.

> The commonality is that in both 1929/1930 and 2020/2021 the two
> highs are the same number of days apart, provided the April 16,
> 2021 high holds.
When we try to map current financial trends to historical trends,
I try to look at a longer picture.

I start from two "facts" that I believe that are now pretty firmly
established:

First: There's this paragraph from Galbraith's book:
> "A common feature of all these earlier troubles
> [[previous panics]] was that having happened they were over. The
> worst was reasonably recognizable as such. The singular feature
> of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen.
> What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have
> been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously
> designed to maximize the suffering, and also to insure that as few
> as possible escaped the common misfortune."
So I try to puzzle out what this means. It means that if you're going
to have a serious panic and crash, then you're probably going to have
a series of false panics, previous panics from which recovery was
fairly rapid and painless, but which convinced everyone that a serious
panic had become impossible. So by today we've certainly had several
such panics. And how many times did I read in the 2000s that a new
Great Depression was impossible because of laws that had been passed
in the 1930s (even though those laws were mostly repealed in the
1990s).

For example, the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933 mandated two different
kinds of banks: Investment banks that could issue securities, and
commercial banks that could lend money. Savings banks that offered
homeowner mortgages were another category. That act was repealed in
1999, and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac turned seriously into structured
finance, resulting in the real estate crisis.

Finally, today the universal religion is Modern Monetary Theory (MMT),
which says that a stock market crash is impossible, because the stock
market can always be bailed out by printing out unlimited amounts of
new money creating massive amounts of debt that would never have to be
paid back.

Second: We have the 58-Year Hypothesis of Generational Dynamics, which
has now proven true in so many different contexts that it could be
called the 58-Year Rule.

Thus, the major false panics of the last two cycles were the false
panic of 1914 (58 years after the panic of 1857) and the false panic
of 1987 (58 years after the panic of 1929).

The "58-Year Rule" requires an event so catastrophic that it affects
the entire population. Everyone above age 5 who experiences the
catastrophe carries the experience around as a shared generational
feeling, not shared by younger generations. After 58 years, there's a
false panic among the people who shared the experience, who are now
all retiring or dying, and realize that the younger generations are
too dumb to realize that it's going to happen again, so they panic.

When I was growing up, there was universal fear of a new Great
Depression. My mother, who had suffered terribly during the Great
Depression after her father's candy business went bankrupt, always
feared a repeat. Starting when I was in college, she kept asking me
if we were about to have a new Great Depression, under the assumption
that I, as an MIT student, could give an authoritative answer. I
remember having such a conversation with her during the 1980s.

But after the false panic of 1987 and its recovery, everything changed.
There was no longer a fear of a new Great Depression, because the quick
recovery proved that the new regulations passed in the 1930s were
working to prevent it.

So then, as the survivors of the 1930s Great Depression all
disappeared, there was the tech bubble in the late 1990s, and the
Nasdaq correction in the early 2000s. Similarly there was a stock
market bubble in the late 1910s, and a stock market correction in
1921.

Then we come to the financial crisis of 2008 and the Lehman bankruptcy,
which should have triggered something like the panic of 1929. That's
what I was expecting, but something happened that I didn't expect --
the massive quantitative easing program and MMT, which prevented
a panic. This was a significant difference between 2008 and 1929.

So now we're on a different path, a unique path that's never been seen
before. The underlying bubble has not been resolved -- to the
contrary, it's grown into the most massive bubble in history. But MMT
has kept it from imploding so far.

So that shows how the macro pattern following the panic of 1929
is similar to the macro pattern following the panic of 1857,
with a divergence after 2008. We've shown how a large panic
is followed by generational changes that lead to false panics,
and then to a new large panic. That's the Generational
Dynamics paradigm.

But here we're talking about something different -- a "mini-pattern"
or "micro-pattern" that explains the timing of a new panic.

The speculation is that has something to do with end-of-quarter earnings
reports, though obviously it has to be more complicated than that.

During the Roaring '20s (1920s), the stock market grew rapidly because
everyone believed that everyone could get rich by investing in the
stock market. But starting on September 3, 1929, something changed.
All of a sudden, people began to lose faith. It was too early for
third quarter earnings, but maybe it had to do with 2nd quarter
earnings. Or maybe there were other financial reports that proved to
be more negative than expected.

I had been thinking that the October 28 panic was caused by
disappointing third quarter earnings. But maybe I was looking in the
wrong place. Maybe the September 3 loss of faith was caused by
disappointing second quarter earnings.

So my speculation is that October 28, 1929, was not some date
magically determined by Divine Providence, but was driven by events,
and I believe that those events were some kinds of financial reports.
Something happened that caused the public mood to change on September
3, 1929, resulting in a total panic 7 weeks later.

If we could figure out what those financial reports were, then we
might be able to look for similar reports today, and get a 7-week lead
on the next crash.

But wait!! Richard has discovered that the Nikkei has been gradually
falling for the last few weeks. There's no Law of Nature that says
that the next panic has to begin on Wall Street and spread to the rest
of the world -- and, in fact, the Panic of 1857 began in Hamburg and
spread to Wall Street. There's no reason why the next panic couldn't
begin in Tokyo and spread to the rest of the world.

So maybe Richard's discovery is the key. If the Nikkei began falling
on April 3, then the Tokyo Stock Exchange panic should occur on May
28. And that could spread to Wall Street and the rest of the world.
Higgenbotham wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 3:18 pm
> This leads me to believe that there might be a crash sometime in
> May.

> Also, the recent comments on the World View News thread indicate
> World War III may be starting in May.
LOL!

Higgenbotham
Posts: 7436
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm

Re: Financial topics

Post by Higgenbotham »

Here's a news article about the April 2000 panic and the reason given for it: inflationary fears based on "Friday's plunge came after the government said prices at the consumer level showed surprising strength last month."

Earnings, while good, were not good enough to attract buyers after the inflation news was reported, despite having attracted buyers earlier.

Bleak Friday on Wall Street

April 14, 2000: 5:49 p.m. ET

Unnerved investors rapidly unload stocks amid inflationary fears

By Staff Writer Catherine Tymkiw

NEW YORK (CNNfn) - U.S. stocks plummeted Friday, capping off five days of stunning losses that handed the Nasdaq composite index its worst weekly performance of all time and the Dow Jones industrial average its steepest one-session point loss in history. The Dow tumbled more than 600 points, trouncing the previous record and triggering circuit breakers at the New York Stock Exchange. The sell-off gave the Nasdaq its biggest point loss of all time, topping the last No. 1 plunge set just five days ago. But the statistical standout could be this: the Nasdaq fell more than 25 percent this week, trouncing the 19 percent fall that began Oct. 21, 1987, Black Monday.

Friday's plunge came after the government said prices at the consumer level showed surprising strength last month, triggering fears that the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates more aggressively. The Nasdaq composite index shed 355.61 points, or over 9 percent, to 3,321.17, its biggest one-day decline on record. At one point during the trading session, the Nasdaq was down 411 points. The index lost over 1,000 points this week and is now off more than 34 percent from its record high set March 10 - well beyond the 20 percent decline Wall Street sees as the beginning of a bear market. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones industrial average skidded 616.23 points to 10,307.32, off over 5 percent, but an improvement from its 722-point drop in the last hour of trading. The broader S&P 500 index fell 83.20 to 1,357.31.

"They're selling the good with the bad because they can. They're throwing everything out the window and that's irrational," Brian Finnerty, head of Nasdaq stock trading at C.E Unterberg Towbin, told CNN's Street Sweep. "But that's also when a bottom is formed." Still, analysts say little fresh fundamental news was behind the week's losses. Instead, months of greed that fueled one of the greatest bull markets in history turned to fear on changing sentiment that the highest flying technology stocks rose too far, too fast.

Gail Dudack, market strategist at Warburg Dillon Read, told CNN's Street Sweep that some of the losses could be linked to investors who, faced with losses, sold stocks to meet their brokers' margin account requirements. (392K AIFF) (392K WAV) As investors dump overpriced stocks to either meet margin calls or take profits before the highflying technology leaders plummet any farther, bargain hunting may be on the horizon. "I think you'll see healthier and broader advances in the market. Now is the time for optimism," said Bill Meehan, chief market analyst with Cantor Fitzgerald.

Decliners outpaced advancers on the New York Stock Exchange 2,702 to 386 as more than 1.1 billion shares changed hands. Losers beat winners on the Nasdaq 4,018 to 511 on volume of more than 2.4 billion shares. The dollar weakened against the euro and the yen. Treasury securities edged lower.

Economic data sparks sell-off

Analysts said a move by the Federal Reserve to aggressively implement rate hikes could strengthen inflationary fears in an already unnerved market. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates five times since last June -- each time just a quarter point -- bringing its benchmark Fed funds lending rate to 6 percent. Aggressive sell-offs on the Nasdaq had attracted buyers over the past few months but pervasive nervousness has sent investors running for the sidelines. So far in April, they have sold into any strength and refused to buy on the dips. "The question becomes, when exactly does the U.S. have an inflationary market," Jim Bianco, president and research director of BiancoResearch.com, told CNNfn's Before Hours. "We've got almost a nine-year high in the inflationary market." In Friday's major economic indicator, consumer prices jumped 0.7 percent in March, or 0.4 percent excluding often-volatile food and energy prices, according to the Commerce Department. The overall rise was the biggest since April 1999 and exceeded Wall Street forecasts.

Strong earnings not enough to attract buyers

Bank stocks, which rallied earlier in the week after some strong earnings reports, were among the biggest losers. J.P. Morgan (JPM: Research, Estimates) slid 9-7/16 to 122-1/16, Citigroup (C: Research, Estimates) lost 4-13/16 to 57-3/4, and American Express (AXP: Research, Estimates) dropped 12-1/4 to 133-3/4. Solid earnings have lifted individual stocks, but failed to support entire sectors, causing wild sell-offs instead of attracting a surge of bargain hunters. "One stock's good earnings isn't going to be enough to save the day," Larry Wachtel, market analyst with Prudential Securities, told CNNfn's market coverage. Sun Microsystems (SUNW: Research, Estimates) rose 1/4 to 78 after reporting third-quarter earnings that rose 44 percent to 26 cents a share, up from the year-ago's 18 cents, and exceeding the expected 23 cents. But other technology leaders didn't benefit from Sun's positive results. Cisco Systems (CSCO: Research, Estimates) fell 4-1/8 to 57, Dell (DELL: Research, Estimates) dropped 4-1/16 to 47-5/8, and Oracle (ORCL: Research, Estimates) shed 9-7/16 at 62-1/2. Still, Peter Cardillo, director of research at Westfalia Investments, said the worst may be over. (229K WAV) (229K AIFF).
https://money.cnn.com/2000/04/14/market ... s_newyork/

John wrote:
Tue Apr 20, 2021 8:28 pm
So my speculation is that October 28, 1929, was not some date
magically determined by Divine Providence, but was driven by events,
and I believe that those events were some kinds of financial reports.
Something happened that caused the public mood to change on September
3, 1929, resulting in a total panic 7 weeks later.

If we could figure out what those financial reports were, then we
might be able to look for similar reports today, and get a 7-week lead
on the next crash.
There are already a lot of people saying that an inflation spike (whether thought to be transitory or not) is certain right about now. Seems like Jeff Gundlach is one who has said that. The report released on April 13, while hot, was not enough to trigger a panic. Maybe next month.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/13/us-cons ... -2021.html
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests