Financial topics

[gerald]

2015 --- shall we begin the count from 1? --70-Year-Old Hedge Fund Founder Shot Dead By His Son

moments ago the WSJ reported that Thomas Gilbert, founder of the $200 million Wainscott hedge fund, whose success Gilbert said previously had come from investing in biotech funds, was found dead with a single bullet to the head in his Manhattan apartment this afternoon, allegedly shot by none other than his 30-year-old son. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-0 ... ad-his-son

Trust you money with other people? the continuing saga --

In an international mystery that has captivated Moscow’s investment community, the founder of Blackfield Capital, once one of Russia’s hottest hedge funds, is missing, allegedly along with the firm’s assets. http://www.wsj.com/articles/chaos-rules ... 2449299304

Place your bets gentlemen, place your bets.

[aedens]

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/ ... z3Nx7SDvmi

Taxpayers have no clue what these informations cults are up to on either side of the pond G.

[gerald]

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/ ... z3Nx7SDvmi

Taxpayers have no clue what these informations cults are up to on either side of the pond G.

aedens -- it is the same old same old, just a little more sophisticated or up to date as one would say.

Ancient Egypt had large libraries, some were secret and were only for the High Priests. In these secret libraries they had records of events going back hundreds or thousands of years --
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dating_creation -- in these records they had data regarding the stars the flooding of the Nile etc. So when the priests told the people the Nile would flood at such and such a date and it did, the ignorant masses, believed the priests were in communication with God. Hence the priests power over the people, like that's new.

Democracy = Dumbocracy

Dumbocracy http://stromatais.blogspot.com/2011/01/dumbocracy.html
There is no more sure means of destroying a civilization, a society, a religion or any other institution than by employing democracy. A lot of people go on and on about how great democracy is. They mention freedom and democracy together, as though freedom is gotten or ensured by democracy. But it has always been known that democracy is nothing more than the tyranny of the many over the few, the ignorant over the enlightened, the base over the excellent, the mean-spirited over the noble-spirited.

and where are we today?

[aedens]

I can assure you that only the packaging has changed.

http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/in ... trycode=XX let me know when it pulls out.....

anyways http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150105.htm we are passing into the jagged pill realm now as we noted before.

[gerald]

aedens -- if you are awake and your eyes are open, you will see things you should not see -- and that others will not believe.

cheers

[gerald]

Just in case anyone doesn't think Nature has ALL of the trump cars --- Potential of dangerous asteroid to hit the Earth on January http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-0 ... hree-weeks

Let's start by having everyone answer five questions:

1) Do you really want to live?

Then, if you do want to live, and setting aside the fact that luck or fate play a big role in one's individual chance for survival:

2) Are you willing to commit murder and/or steal (the same as murder in many survival situations) in order to survive?

3) Are you going to stay put, or go somewhere?

4) How do you rate your chances of surviving 24 months?

5) What is the number one thing you could do in the next three weeks to dramatically increase your odds of surviving 24 months?
-------------------------------

cheers --- from the "four horseman"

[John]

> anyways http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc150105.htm we are
> passing into the jagged pill realm now as we noted before.

That's a very interesting analysis. Hussman says that he's in the
camp of the people who believe that:

> the likelihood of a market loss on the order of 40%, 50% or even
> 60% in the next few years is quite high.

So Hussman faces the familiar problem that all investment counselors
have -- that they want to collect commissions, so they want people to
invest, even though they believe that investing at this time will
"inevitably end in tears."

One thing that I find very interesting is that today, even after 85
years, we still don't know what triggered the 1929 panic. Some people
claim that it was triggered by a speech by Irving Fisher, but that
speech was not significantly different from other speeches he's given,
and so does not provide a real explanation. The fact is, we really
don't know what makes August 28, 1929, different from other days in
1929, although we do know that Black Monday was preceded by several
weeks of extreme volatility -- something that we see today as well.

Hussman seems to be trying to answer that question with the
following paragraph, which he has in bold:

> "In short, the near-term outcome of speculative, overvalued
> markets is conditional on investor preferences toward risk-seeking
> or risk-aversion, and those preferences can be largely inferred
> from observable market internals and credit spreads. The
> difference between an overvalued market that becomes more
> overvalued, and an overvalued market that crashes, has little to
> do with the level of valuation and everything to do with investor
> risk preferences. That, right there, is the primary lesson of our
> own challenging experience in recent years."

In other words, the panic occurs when investor preferences switch from
risk-seeking to risk-aversion. In other words, the panic will occur
when investors decide to sell. In other words, the panic will occur
when the panic occurs.

So Hussman's article is an interesting analysis, but it still doesn't
tell us what triggered the 1929 panic, or what will trigger the next
panic. The only (very weak) indicator that I know of is that
volatility precedes the panic.

[gerald]

John -- have you ever witnessed the reactions of a crowd? They are like an unthinking herd, if properly ( poor choice of words ) stimulated they will do what they thought they could not.
Hence the mob. --- stay away from crowds.

And you wonder why I like the desolation of nature, I know what to be prepared for , humans not so much.

cheers

[John]

John -- have you ever witnessed the reactions of a crowd? They are like an unthinking herd, if properly ( poor choice of words ) stimulated they will do what they thought they could not.
Hence the mob. --- stay away from crowds.

And you wonder why I like the desolation of nature, I know what to be prepared for , humans not so much.

cheers

Yes, but exactly when does the unthinking herd start to move? What stimulation is required?

[gerald]

John -- have you ever witnessed the reactions of a crowd? They are like an unthinking herd, if properly ( poor choice of words ) stimulated they will do what they thought they could not.
Hence the mob. --- stay away from crowds.

And you wonder why I like the desolation of nature, I know what to be prepared for , humans not so much.

cheers

Yes, but exactly when does the unthinking herd start to move? What stimulation is required?

Having witnessed and been in the herd -- a seemingly unimportant action can start the stampede ( a person becomes one with the herd ) --- and then all reason goes out the window. it becomes like an uncontrollable force that sweeps people into it ( what is that trigger ? it depends, illogical as that may be ) stay away from crowds as stimulating as they can be, for they can turn on a dime, and you will be trampled. -- Lemmings -- Humanity

cheers