Sorry. I meant that if you think I would just use the magic gold making machine a couple times and not result in the value of gold dropping that you don't understand human nature. This is an amazingly powerful toy and humans will play with it.jdcpapa wrote:Vince,vincecate wrote:You don't understand human nature.
Talk about the kettle calling the pot black. You are "all in". I hope and pray it works for you.
John
Financial topics
Re: Financial topics
Re: Financial topics
Reminds me a little of what happened with Spain in the 16th century. They explored the new world, hoping to find great riches. They actually did find a fair amount of gold, but because it increased the supply, the actual value of it ended up plummeting.
-
Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7489
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
There are large waves of excess liquidity that are creating unprecedented volatility. This year the stock market moved down 20% in 12 trading days, then moved up 20% in 17 trading days. The net result of that volatility was about 4%, but the volatility was 5 times larger than the trend. This has never happened before that I know of under these types of conditions and I don't presently see any reason why the volatility will decrease and lots of reasons why it can increase, given its source. Conditions may change but even if they do, I'm not sure enough order can be restored to be comfortable betting 100% on deflation beyond mid year.John wrote:How would this work? Do you have any example of a country during theHiggenbotham wrote: > There could (probably will in my opinion) be too much disorder in
> the system to either have a true deflation ...
period 1929-45 that serves as a model?
John
Last edited by Higgenbotham on Fri Dec 30, 2011 10:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Re: Financial topics
So is this the model of deflation->hyperinflation that you'revincecate wrote: > When the US dollar went from 1 oz of gold to about 1/2 oz of gold
> in 1933 the price of international commodities about doubled. This
> is called a "hyperinflationary event" by some economists.
expecting will happen this time? Or do you have in mind some other
country that serves as a model in the 1929-45 time period to
illustrate your suggestion?
Re: Financial topics
Why would this volatility continue after a stock market crash?Higgenbotham wrote: > There are large waves of excess liquidity that are creating
> unprecedented volatility. This year the stock market moved down
> 20% in 12 trading days, then moved up 20% in 17 trading days. The
> net result of that volatility was about 4%, but the volatility was
> 5 times larger than the trend. This has never happened before that
> I know of under these types of conditions and I don't presently
> see any reason why the volatility will decrease and lots of
> reasons why it can increase, given its source. Conditions may
> change but even if they do, I'm not sure enough order can be
> restored to be comfortable betting 100% on deflation beyond mid
> year.
According to Galbraith, within two months after the 1929 crash, "Wall
Street [had] become as placid as a produce market."
Re: Financial topics
Perhaps, but it didn't stay that long for long. They kept thinking "The worst is over", just as they are now.
Re: Financial topics
The debt and deficit levels tend to get high during wars and so there are lots of hyperinflations during or after wars. Then the generation that lived through that is not likely to let it happen again soon. There may not be a good example of deflation->hyperinflation during the period you specify but there are outside that time. Like a few years before Germany had deflation then hyperinflation.John wrote:So is this the model of deflation->hyperinflation that you'revincecate wrote: > When the US dollar went from 1 oz of gold to about 1/2 oz of gold
> in 1933 the price of international commodities about doubled. This
> is called a "hyperinflationary event" by some economists.
expecting will happen this time? Or do you have in mind some other
country that serves as a model in the 1929-45 time period to
illustrate your suggestion?
-
Higgenbotham
- Posts: 7489
- Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:28 pm
Re: Financial topics
Wall Street may or may not; I'm not sure. I cited the stock market as a leading example. When stocks crash, the disorder is likely to transfer over to the regular economy and at that point things become messier. I see a lot of people thinking in terms of someone driving down to the store and picking up the same goods that have always been there and the prices are either up or down. Once the stock market crashes, I don't see that happening. I don't necessarily see the cars running, the store still there, or, if it is, many of the goods not able to get on the shelf. There will probably be alternative methods of obtaining goods and the prices are likely to be highly variable and not possible to characterize.John wrote:Why would this volatility continue after a stock market crash?
According to Galbraith, within two months after the 1929 crash, "Wall
Street [had] become as placid as a produce market."
Last edited by Higgenbotham on Fri Dec 30, 2011 11:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Volatility
Volatility
Each day I run a program that updates the table that appears on my
DJIA history page.
** Great Depression and Dow Jones Industrial Average
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 010.i.djia
When I was playing around with that program a few years ago, I had it
also compute a measure of "volatility" for each month.
For each day, it computes the "volatility" for the day according
to the formula:
> volatility = (high-low) / high * 100%
My program then prints out four numbers for each month:
* The average "volatility" for the month
* The number of days when it exceeded 1%, 1.5% and 2%
Here's the data for the latest run:
I'm not sure how useful this measure is, but it does seem to
correspond to the intuitive volatility we see in the news, and it has
the advantage that it's easy to compute and understand.
According to this measure of volatility, it was high from 1929-34, and
then, except for a brief spurt in 1937, remained low until the tech
bubble began in 1996.
John
Each day I run a program that updates the table that appears on my
DJIA history page.
** Great Depression and Dow Jones Industrial Average
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... 010.i.djia
When I was playing around with that program a few years ago, I had it
also compute a measure of "volatility" for each month.
For each day, it computes the "volatility" for the day according
to the formula:
> volatility = (high-low) / high * 100%
My program then prints out four numbers for each month:
* The average "volatility" for the month
* The number of days when it exceeded 1%, 1.5% and 2%
Here's the data for the latest run:
Code: Select all
192810 2.55 22 22 18
192811 2.73 20 20 16
192812 3.15 20 19 19
192901 2.51 22 22 19
192902 2.68 18 18 18
192903 2.83 20 20 16
192904 2.31 22 21 15
192905 2.63 22 22 20
192906 2.16 20 20 13
192907 2.18 22 21 19
192908 2.28 22 22 16
192909 2.65 19 19 18
192910 5.52 23 23 23
192911 5.53 17 17 17
192912 3.67 21 21 21
193001 2.05 22 20 11
193002 2.15 19 19 13
193003 2.18 21 21 18
193004 2.41 21 21 19
193005 2.67 21 20 15
193006 3.95 21 20 18
193007 2.60 22 22 19
193008 2.40 21 21 13
193009 2.59 21 19 14
193010 3.84 22 22 22
193011 3.51 18 18 18
193012 3.44 22 22 22
193101 2.72 21 21 19
193102 2.84 18 18 15
193103 2.82 22 22 22
193104 3.38 21 21 21
193105 4.00 21 21 21
193106 4.24 22 22 22
193107 2.99 23 23 19
193108 2.56 21 21 16
193109 4.64 21 20 19
193110 5.60 21 21 21
193111 4.35 19 19 19
193112 5.46 22 22 22
193201 4.28 20 20 20
193202 4.54 19 19 19
193203 3.62 22 22 22
193204 5.09 21 21 21
193205 5.15 21 21 21
193206 5.20 22 22 22
193207 4.61 20 20 20
193208 6.08 23 23 23
193209 5.46 21 21 21
193210 4.56 20 20 19
193211 4.08 20 20 20
193212 3.44 21 21 21
193301 2.80 21 20 17
193302 3.22 18 18 18
193303 4.00 16 16 15
193304 4.03 19 19 19
193305 3.54 22 22 22
193306 3.93 22 22 22
193307 4.85 20 20 20
193308 3.09 23 23 19
193309 3.23 20 19 18
193310 4.00 21 21 21
193311 3.10 20 20 17
193312 2.38 20 18 12
193401 2.23 22 21 12
193402 2.38 18 17 13
193403 1.95 21 16 8
193404 1.58 20 10 3
193405 2.34 22 18 12
193406 1.81 21 13 7
193407 2.05 20 12 7
193408 1.94 22 14 9
193409 1.82 18 10 5
193410 1.59 20 11 4
193411 1.52 19 7 2
193412 1.42 18 4 2
193501 1.40 18 5 2
193502 1.36 11 5 1
193503 1.75 20 14 7
193504 1.41 19 7 2
193505 1.64 21 12 5
193506 1.49 16 12 0
193507 1.28 18 4 0
193508 1.38 20 5 1
193509 1.53 20 10 1
193510 1.47 21 13 1
193511 1.85 18 14 6
193512 1.49 21 8 1
193601 1.46 21 8 3
193602 1.55 19 9 3
193603 1.71 22 17 3
193604 1.92 20 11 7
193605 1.42 17 7 2
193606 1.18 14 4 0
193607 1.31 20 4 0
193608 1.31 15 4 2
193609 1.13 16 1 0
193610 1.13 19 0 0
193611 1.48 18 6 2
193612 1.16 18 3 0
193701 1.24 17 4 0
193702 1.33 18 3 1
193703 1.54 22 12 1
193704 1.73 19 13 7
193705 1.33 13 5 3
193706 1.36 15 6 3
193707 1.19 16 2 1
193708 1.09 12 4 1
193709 2.75 21 19 14
193710 4.45 20 20 18
193711 3.26 19 18 18
193712 2.28 23 21 13
193801 2.13 21 19 10
193802 2.02 19 17 8
193803 2.65 23 19 13
193804 2.37 20 18 15
193805 1.90 21 16 8
193806 2.19 22 13 10
193807 2.18 20 17 12
193808 1.54 21 11 5
193809 2.19 19 15 7
193810 1.61 20 9 3
193811 1.48 15 7 3
193812 1.17 15 3 0
193901 1.40 16 9 4
193902 1.02 9 1 0
193903 1.57 17 9 5
193904 2.13 19 13 9
193905 1.34 20 6 3
193906 1.23 15 5 1
193907 1.29 12 5 2
193908 1.73 22 13 6
193909 2.69 20 18 13
193910 1.31 16 4 2
193911 1.16 15 4 1
193912 0.99 8 0 0
194001 1.01 7 3 0
194002 0.81 2 0 0
194003 0.76 3 0 0
194004 1.00 5 2 0
194005 3.02 16 16 14
194006 2.18 19 15 10
194007 0.93 6 2 1
194008 1.02 9 2 1
194009 1.22 13 4 1
194010 1.10 12 3 0
194011 1.60 16 7 3
194012 1.05 10 0 0
194101 1.03 9 2 0
194102 1.08 8 1 1
194103 0.86 4 1 0
194104 1.00 8 1 0
194105 0.89 5 1 0
194106 0.92 6 1 0
194107 1.00 9 1 0
194108 0.68 1 0 0
194109 0.86 4 2 0
194110 0.98 6 2 0
194111 1.22 16 1 0
194112 2.25 22 20 11
194201 1.23 14 4 1
194202 0.99 8 1 0
194203 1.27 15 5 2
194204 1.23 14 4 2
194205 1.15 13 2 1
194206 1.03 11 3 0
194207 1.07 9 3 1
194208 0.74 1 0 0
194209 0.68 2 0 0
194210 1.01 10 1 0
194211 1.03 9 1 0
194212 1.07 10 1 1
194301 0.92 6 0 0
194302 0.95 8 0 0
194303 1.01 9 1 0
194304 1.03 10 1 1
194305 0.96 8 0 0
194306 0.90 4 0 0
194307 0.96 6 3 2
194308 0.85 5 1 0
194309 0.68 1 0 0
194310 0.68 2 0 0
194311 1.06 9 1 1
194312 0.86 7 0 0
194401 0.65 0 0 0
194402 0.66 1 0 0
194403 0.70 3 0 0
194404 0.61 1 0 0
194405 0.59 0 0 0
194406 0.85 5 0 0
194407 0.80 2 0 0
194408 0.58 0 0 0
194409 0.66 2 1 0
194410 0.63 1 0 0
194411 0.67 1 0 0
194412 0.84 5 0 0
194501 0.86 5 0 0
194502 0.82 3 0 0
194503 0.92 7 1 0
194504 0.89 5 0 0
194505 0.87 5 0 0
194506 0.77 2 1 0
194507 0.92 6 1 0
194508 1.08 10 2 1
194509 0.90 5 0 0
194510 1.02 11 1 0
194511 1.07 13 0 0
194512 0.98 8 1 0
194601 1.20 18 4 0
194602 1.57 17 7 4
194603 1.10 12 1 1
194604 1.01 10 1 0
194605 1.11 12 2 0
194606 1.11 9 2 2
194607 1.05 8 3 2
194608 1.10 8 4 2
194609 2.73 20 19 13
194610 1.65 23 13 4
194611 1.52 17 7 1
194612 1.23 17 3 1
194701 1.12 18 1 1
194702 1.12 10 3 0
194703 1.08 11 2 1
194704 1.14 12 3 1
194705 1.18 13 3 1
194706 1.24 16 5 0
194707 1.28 20 3 1
194708 0.91 5 0 0
194709 1.05 12 1 0
194710 1.09 16 2 0
194711 0.93 6 0 0
194712 1.02 10 1 0
194801 1.05 11 1 0
194802 1.12 8 2 1
194803 0.98 8 1 0
194804 1.01 11 0 0
194805 1.16 15 2 1
194806 1.07 11 1 0
194807 1.21 12 4 1
194808 0.92 8 0 0
194809 1.05 10 2 0
194810 0.93 7 1 0
194811 1.45 17 6 2
194812 1.01 9 0 0
194901 1.02 8 1 0
194902 1.00 5 1 0
194903 0.79 2 0 0
194904 0.91 3 1 1
194905 0.81 2 1 1
194906 1.04 8 3 0
194907 0.83 3 0 0
194908 0.84 4 0 0
194909 0.97 8 2 0
194910 0.94 7 0 0
194911 1.07 12 0 0
194912 0.97 10 0 0
195001 1.15 12 2 2
195002 0.96 5 1 0
195003 1.01 10 0 0
195004 1.15 12 1 0
195005 0.99 10 0 0
195006 1.76 18 6 6
195007 1.82 20 15 5
195008 1.20 16 4 0
195009 1.25 16 4 0
195010 1.35 19 6 1
195011 1.44 20 8 0
195012 1.53 20 8 1
195101 1.54 22 9 3
195102 1.18 14 2 0
195103 1.15 14 3 0
195104 1.03 12 0 0
195105 1.29 21 3 3
195106 1.22 17 3 0
195107 1.19 16 3 0
195108 1.13 17 2 0
195109 1.14 18 0 0
195110 1.31 16 6 1
195111 1.11 12 0 0
195112 0.99 9 0 0
195201 1.02 7 2 0
195202 1.09 11 2 0
195203 0.96 7 0 0
195204 1.05 10 1 0
195205 0.90 4 0 0
195206 0.84 3 0 0
195207 0.83 1 0 0
195208 0.74 1 0 0
195209 0.91 5 0 0
195210 0.95 8 3 0
195211 1.12 11 3 0
195212 0.97 9 0 0
195301 1.03 10 1 0
195302 1.02 8 1 0
195303 1.03 7 2 0
195304 1.19 17 2 1
195305 0.93 4 0 0
195306 1.10 12 2 0
195307 0.83 4 0 0
195308 0.96 8 1 0
195309 1.08 12 3 0
195310 0.99 9 1 0
195311 1.06 12 0 0
195312 1.04 10 1 0
195401 1.07 13 0 0
195402 1.07 11 0 0
195403 1.15 19 0 0
195404 1.35 21 6 0
195405 1.17 18 1 0
195406 1.32 18 5 2
195407 1.27 20 3 0
195408 1.43 22 6 2
195409 1.18 17 1 0
195410 1.10 13 2 0
195411 1.41 20 4 1
195412 1.32 21 5 0
195501 1.55 19 9 4
195502 1.26 18 1 0
195503 1.43 22 6 4
195504 1.24 17 4 0
195505 1.20 16 2 0
195506 1.20 20 1 0
195507 1.49 20 8 2
195508 1.14 14 2 0
195509 1.33 16 4 2
195510 1.47 19 6 3
195511 1.29 15 6 0
195512 1.01 12 0 0
195601 1.29 18 4 0
195602 1.22 14 3 0
195603 1.08 13 0 0
195604 1.21 16 3 0
195605 1.46 20 8 2
195606 1.12 15 2 1
195607 1.12 14 2 0
195608 1.22 19 4 0
195609 1.30 18 4 0
195610 1.26 18 4 2
195611 1.52 20 11 1
195612 1.28 16 3 1
195701 1.32 21 5 1
195702 1.35 17 5 3
195703 0.97 7 0 0
195704 1.08 13 0 0
195705 1.09 16 0 0
195706 1.32 19 3 1
195707 1.17 18 1 0
195708 1.46 22 8 1
195709 1.41 17 9 1
195710 1.86 23 16 7
195711 1.80 19 16 2
195712 1.49 21 9 0
195801 1.31 21 4 1
195802 1.20 18 3 0
195803 1.10 14 0 0
195804 1.15 15 1 0
195805 1.01 11 0 0
195806 1.08 13 1 0
195807 1.26 19 3 0
195808 1.12 14 1 0
195809 1.20 19 0 0
195810 1.34 22 4 2
195811 1.47 18 8 1
195812 1.31 19 3 1
195901 1.42 21 6 0
195902 1.32 19 3 0
195903 1.30 21 3 0
195904 1.25 21 1 0
195905 1.31 20 4 1
195906 1.43 22 8 0
195907 1.29 21 5 0
195908 1.30 19 4 1
195909 1.58 21 13 2
195910 1.27 19 5 0
195911 1.38 18 5 0
195912 1.26 21 1 1
196001 1.54 20 10 0
196002 1.57 20 10 2
196003 1.44 23 8 3
196004 1.39 20 7 1
196005 1.48 21 7 1
196006 1.59 22 14 1
196007 1.63 20 9 4
196008 1.40 23 6 0
196009 1.61 21 10 2
196010 1.59 21 16 2
196011 1.56 20 9 2
196012 1.46 21 7 0
196101 1.53 21 10 1
196102 1.47 19 7 0
196103 1.48 22 6 1
196104 1.58 20 13 1
196105 1.54 21 9 1
196106 1.42 22 6 0
196107 1.34 20 4 0
196108 1.34 23 3 0
196109 1.47 20 8 1
196110 1.33 22 4 0
196111 1.44 20 8 0
196112 1.38 20 4 0
196201 1.56 22 9 3
196202 1.24 18 2 0
196203 1.15 18 0 0
196204 1.53 19 6 2
196205 2.62 22 18 11
196206 2.53 21 19 16
196207 1.80 21 17 5
196208 1.42 23 7 0
196209 1.55 19 8 2
196210 1.77 23 10 6
196211 1.85 20 16 7
196212 1.37 19 5 0
196301 1.34 21 5 0
196302 1.30 18 3 0
196303 1.17 19 2 0
196304 1.30 19 3 0
196305 1.16 19 0 0
196306 1.24 19 3 0
196307 1.21 18 2 0
196308 1.10 18 0 0
196309 1.28 18 3 0
196310 1.29 21 3 0
196311 1.59 17 9 1
196312 1.25 18 2 0
196401 1.26 22 2 0
196402 1.15 17 1 0
196403 1.05 13 0 0
196404 1.13 18 0 0
196405 1.16 16 0 0
196406 1.11 19 1 0
196407 1.07 16 0 0
196408 1.10 15 2 0
196409 1.12 16 2 0
196410 1.09 15 1 0
196411 1.23 17 2 0
196412 1.22 21 1 0
196501 1.13 18 0 0
196502 1.24 18 2 1
196503 1.11 17 0 0
196504 1.05 16 0 0
196505 1.17 17 0 0
196506 1.76 22 13 6
196507 1.27 18 4 0
196508 1.17 20 0 0
196509 1.43 21 9 0
196510 1.30 21 2 0
196511 1.29 20 0 0
196512 1.51 22 8 2
196601 1.36 21 5 0
196602 1.51 19 10 0
196603 1.54 23 12 3
196604 1.55 20 12 0
196605 1.96 21 19 10
196606 1.51 22 9 1
196607 1.60 20 11 2
196608 1.93 23 20 9
196609 2.00 21 20 10
196610 2.31 21 21 16
196611 1.75 20 16 2
196612 1.67 21 16 2
196701 1.95 21 20 8
196702 1.66 19 13 2
196703 1.68 22 18 4
196704 1.62 20 14 1
196705 1.55 22 13 1
196706 1.72 22 15 4
196707 1.68 20 16 1
196708 1.48 23 8 1
196709 1.58 20 14 0
196710 1.68 22 18 2
196711 1.94 20 20 7
196712 1.54 19 13 0
196801 1.74 22 21 4
196802 1.59 19 10 1
196803 1.60 21 14 3
196804 2.01 20 19 7
196805 1.72 22 20 2
196806 1.75 17 14 2
196807 1.77 17 16 2
196808 1.61 18 10 0
196809 1.62 17 12 0
196810 1.58 18 12 1
196811 1.73 17 16 1
196812 1.81 18 16 5
196901 1.61 22 9 2
196902 1.57 18 9 3
196903 1.44 20 7 0
196904 1.49 21 8 1
196905 1.50 21 11 0
196906 1.56 21 13 1
196907 1.86 21 20 6
196908 1.59 21 12 2
196909 1.63 21 12 3
196910 1.83 23 21 6
196911 1.69 19 16 2
196912 1.94 22 21 8
197001 1.83 21 20 5
197002 2.18 19 19 10
197003 1.67 21 14 2
197004 1.77 22 13 6
197005 2.94 21 21 19
197006 2.46 22 21 18
197007 2.08 22 21 13
197008 1.85 21 17 7
197009 1.89 21 20 8
197010 1.68 22 15 5
197011 1.63 20 15 3
197012 1.67 22 17 3
197101 1.61 20 15 1
197102 1.61 19 14 0
197103 1.50 23 10 0
197104 1.60 21 16 0
197105 1.54 20 10 1
197106 1.61 22 15 3
197107 1.48 21 9 0
197108 1.78 22 16 5
197109 1.43 21 7 0
197110 1.57 21 12 2
197111 1.99 21 20 12
197112 1.87 22 21 8
197201 1.63 21 16 0
197202 1.63 20 14 0
197203 1.62 22 16 1
197204 1.60 20 16 0
197205 1.58 22 12 2
197206 1.53 22 12 0
197207 1.68 20 14 3
197208 1.57 23 14 0
197209 1.42 20 7 0
197210 1.60 22 13 1
197211 1.68 20 14 5
197212 1.34 19 3 0
197301 1.85 21 18 5
197302 1.93 19 17 8
197303 1.81 22 17 5
197304 1.88 20 19 6
197305 2.20 22 20 14
197306 1.96 21 20 7
197307 1.93 21 19 9
197308 1.78 23 19 3
197309 1.85 19 18 5
197310 2.21 23 23 18
197311 2.86 21 21 20
197312 2.91 20 20 19
197401 2.44 22 22 18
197402 2.09 19 19 10
197403 2.01 21 21 10
197404 1.79 21 18 4
197405 2.17 22 22 12
197406 1.90 20 17 8
197407 2.23 22 21 16
197408 2.75 22 22 21
197409 3.10 20 20 20
197410 3.72 23 23 23
197411 2.97 20 20 20
197412 2.54 21 21 20
197501 2.68 22 22 21
197502 2.47 19 19 16
197503 2.24 19 19 16
197504 2.29 22 22 17
197505 2.25 21 21 17
197506 1.98 21 21 6
197507 1.91 22 21 8
197508 1.86 21 19 6
197509 1.99 21 21 10
197510 2.03 23 22 10
197511 1.69 19 15 2
197512 1.57 22 13 1
197601 2.07 21 19 13
197602 1.83 19 17 2
197603 1.63 23 17 1
197604 1.55 20 13 1
197605 1.41 20 7 1
197606 1.40 22 7 0
197607 1.35 21 4 0
197608 1.35 21 5 0
197609 1.42 21 5 2
197610 1.68 21 17 2
197611 1.58 20 11 2
197612 1.39 21 5 0
197701 1.43 21 6 0
197702 1.36 18 3 0
197703 1.25 21 3 0
197704 1.37 20 6 0
197705 1.32 21 5 0
197706 1.27 20 4 0
197707 1.33 18 4 1
197708 1.41 23 8 0
197709 1.34 20 5 1
197710 1.52 21 8 1
197711 1.47 21 4 1
197712 1.30 20 3 0
197801 1.61 20 13 2
197802 1.31 17 3 0
197803 1.26 21 3 0
197804 1.68 20 11 6
197805 1.66 22 18 1
197806 1.48 21 10 0
197807 1.51 20 11 1
197808 1.73 23 16 3
197809 1.55 20 11 1
197810 2.04 22 17 10
197811 1.85 21 17 7
197812 1.57 20 12 1
197901 1.64 22 14 3
197902 1.28 17 2 1
197903 1.49 21 9 1
197904 1.37 19 4 0
197905 1.40 22 6 1
197906 1.24 17 3 0
197907 1.27 21 2 0
197908 1.33 19 5 0
197909 1.62 19 11 1
197910 1.90 23 19 8
197911 1.67 21 13 6
197912 1.37 19 8 0
198001 2.13 22 22 14
198002 2.19 20 19 14
198003 2.70 21 21 18
198004 2.15 21 21 13
198005 1.86 21 19 8
198006 1.75 21 18 2
198007 1.75 22 19 4
198008 1.70 21 18 2
198009 1.91 21 18 9
198010 1.90 23 22 6
198011 2.13 18 17 10
198012 2.20 22 21 15
198101 1.96 21 20 6
198102 1.86 19 17 5
198103 2.06 22 21 12
198104 1.84 21 20 3
198105 1.67 20 15 4
198106 1.72 22 18 4
198107 1.61 22 13 2
198108 1.66 21 13 2
198109 2.18 21 19 11
198110 2.00 22 22 9
198111 1.76 20 17 2
198112 1.42 22 8 0
198201 1.88 20 19 5
198202 1.95 19 18 7
198203 1.93 23 19 7
198204 1.55 21 12 0
198205 1.52 20 11 0
198206 1.65 22 14 2
198207 1.82 21 18 3
198208 2.53 22 22 13
198209 2.11 21 20 11
198210 2.82 21 21 20
198211 2.58 21 20 15
198212 2.54 22 21 16
198301 2.42 21 21 15
198302 2.07 19 19 12
198303 1.93 23 21 7
198304 1.90 20 19 6
198305 1.95 21 21 9
198306 1.85 22 21 4
198307 1.74 20 12 4
198308 1.88 23 21 8
198309 1.72 21 17 1
198310 1.82 21 16 5
198311 1.62 21 14 2
198312 1.43 20 8 0
198401 1.61 21 12 3
198402 2.18 20 20 14
198403 1.62 22 14 3
198404 1.82 20 13 6
198405 1.76 22 19 3
198406 1.87 21 16 6
198407 1.73 21 16 3
198408 2.02 23 16 10
198409 1.80 19 13 5
198410 1.67 23 12 3
198411 1.60 21 14 1
198412 1.58 19 12 2
198501 1.81 22 17 7
198502 1.54 19 11 2
198503 1.49 21 8 2
198504 1.38 21 7 0
198505 1.43 22 9 0
198506 1.43 20 4 1
198507 1.43 22 8 1
198508 1.23 20 3 1
198509 1.55 19 10 1
198510 1.45 23 11 0
198511 1.64 20 16 2
198512 1.81 21 16 7
198601 1.91 22 17 7
198602 2.08 19 18 11
198603 2.16 20 20 11
198604 2.25 22 22 14
198605 1.86 21 19 8
198606 1.78 21 17 5
198607 2.12 22 22 10
198608 1.90 21 20 7
198609 2.43 21 21 16
198610 1.84 23 21 6
198611 1.89 19 16 7
198612 1.70 22 15 4
198701 2.41 21 21 14
198702 2.10 19 18 9
198703 1.93 22 21 7
198704 2.82 21 21 20
198705 2.35 20 20 15
198706 1.70 22 14 5
198707 1.72 22 17 2
198708 1.88 21 19 5
198709 2.36 21 21 11
198710 6.35 22 22 20
198711 3.22 20 20 20
198712 2.97 22 21 19
198801 3.24 20 20 18
198802 2.24 20 19 12
198803 1.96 23 20 10
198804 2.29 20 20 11
198805 1.78 20 14 4
198806 1.85 22 17 6
198807 1.85 20 17 8
198808 1.71 23 14 5
198809 1.52 21 10 2
198810 1.70 21 14 4
198811 1.58 21 13 2
198812 1.38 20 4 1
198901 1.58 20 10 5
198902 1.55 19 8 3
198903 1.41 22 8 0
198904 1.36 18 4 0
198905 1.43 22 8 1
198906 1.57 22 10 1
198907 1.58 20 11 2
198908 1.74 22 17 5
198909 1.58 20 11 2
198910 2.49 22 18 11
198911 1.56 21 11 0
198912 1.67 20 10 5
199001 2.23 22 20 12
199002 1.77 19 17 2
199003 1.61 22 14 2
199004 1.53 20 10 0
199005 1.62 22 12 4
199006 1.76 21 18 5
199007 1.92 21 17 7
199008 2.57 23 23 18
199009 2.35 19 19 14
199010 2.80 23 23 21
199011 2.02 21 19 9
199012 1.73 20 15 6
199101 2.16 22 21 13
199102 2.49 19 19 16
199103 2.11 20 20 11
199104 2.06 22 22 11
199105 1.86 22 19 6
199106 1.62 20 14 0
199107 1.66 22 14 5
199108 1.66 22 12 5
199109 1.50 20 10 0
199110 1.71 23 18 3
199111 1.90 20 17 6
199112 2.09 21 20 7
199201 2.23 22 22 16
199202 1.99 19 18 8
199203 1.60 22 16 0
199204 2.04 21 21 10
199205 1.54 20 9 1
199206 1.71 22 18 3
199207 1.68 22 15 4
199208 1.44 21 6 1
199209 1.54 21 11 1
199210 1.89 22 20 5
199211 1.61 20 13 1
199212 1.57 22 13 1
199301 1.80 20 18 4
199302 2.02 19 18 8
199303 1.71 23 17 5
199304 2.03 21 20 10
199305 1.72 20 17 1
199306 1.58 22 14 1
199307 1.65 21 16 0
199308 1.50 22 9 0
199309 1.59 21 13 1
199310 1.70 21 16 4
199311 1.76 21 16 3
199312 1.52 22 9 1
199401 1.72 21 17 2
199402 1.74 19 15 3
199403 1.91 23 20 6
199404 2.20 19 19 9
199405 1.78 21 20 6
199406 1.77 22 18 5
199407 1.62 20 14 1
199408 1.53 23 11 1
199409 1.59 21 14 1
199410 1.80 21 19 5
199411 1.81 21 15 7
199412 1.69 21 15 3
199501 1.72 21 17 3
199502 1.57 19 8 3
199503 1.70 23 18 3
199504 1.67 19 14 3
199505 1.83 22 18 7
199506 1.62 22 12 3
199507 1.91 20 19 4
199508 1.55 23 11 2
199509 1.68 20 18 3
199510 1.91 22 21 5
199511 1.80 20 19 6
199512 1.87 20 18 6
199601 2.18 21 21 17
199602 2.09 20 20 13
199603 2.25 21 21 13
199604 1.97 21 20 5
199605 1.95 22 21 9
199606 1.62 20 12 1
199607 2.24 22 21 9
199608 1.53 22 11 2
199609 1.59 20 12 2
199610 1.72 23 18 3
199611 1.71 19 17 3
199612 2.08 21 19 11
199701 2.25 22 22 14
199702 2.14 19 19 11
199703 2.28 20 20 13
199704 2.46 22 22 19
199705 2.17 21 21 11
199706 2.09 21 21 10
199707 2.32 22 22 19
199708 2.41 21 20 18
199709 2.19 21 20 13
199710 2.92 23 23 16
199711 2.22 19 17 16
199712 2.32 22 21 17
199801 2.51 20 20 17
199802 1.97 19 19 7
199803 2.00 22 22 10
199804 2.31 21 21 19
199805 2.14 20 20 15
199806 2.27 22 22 14
199807 2.42 22 22 18
199808 3.35 21 21 20
199809 3.88 21 21 21
199810 3.70 22 22 22
199811 2.49 20 19 17
199812 2.58 22 22 20
199901 3.17 19 19 19
199902 2.94 19 19 19
199903 2.56 23 23 23
199904 3.38 21 21 21
199905 2.98 20 20 20
199906 2.72 22 22 22
199907 2.40 21 21 20
199908 2.57 22 22 21
199909 2.59 21 21 20
199910 3.04 21 21 21
199911 2.57 21 21 20
199912 2.94 22 22 22
200001 3.88 20 20 20
200002 3.77 20 20 20
200003 4.29 23 23 23
200004 4.48 19 19 19
200005 3.42 22 22 22
200006 3.25 22 22 22
200007 2.96 20 20 20
200008 2.63 23 23 23
200009 3.20 20 20 20
200010 4.13 22 22 22
200011 3.36 21 21 21
200012 3.77 20 20 20
200101 3.84 21 21 21
200102 3.08 19 19 19
200103 3.71 22 22 22
200104 3.36 20 20 20
200105 2.43 22 22 20
200106 2.50 21 21 20
200107 2.54 21 21 19
200108 2.32 23 23 17
200109 4.38 15 15 15
200110 3.07 23 23 23
200111 2.43 21 21 17
200112 2.20 20 18 14
200201 2.49 21 21 21
200202 2.56 19 19 17
200203 2.23 20 20 13
200204 2.38 22 22 19
200205 2.33 22 22 16
200206 3.00 20 20 19
200207 4.54 22 22 22
200208 3.53 22 22 22
200209 3.33 20 20 20
200210 3.99 23 23 23
200211 2.80 20 20 19
200212 2.40 21 20 19
200301 2.55 21 21 18
200302 2.44 19 19 18
200303 2.70 21 21 19
200304 2.41 21 21 16
200305 2.13 21 21 9
200306 2.08 21 21 12
200307 2.06 22 22 13
200308 1.70 21 14 4
200309 1.75 21 19 3
200310 1.61 23 13 2
200311 1.59 19 12 1
200312 1.46 20 12 0
200401 1.77 20 16 5
200402 1.64 19 13 2
200403 1.71 23 18 2
200404 1.75 21 16 4
200405 1.77 20 14 5
200406 1.38 21 4 0
200407 1.69 21 15 4
200408 1.51 20 13 1
200409 1.34 20 5 0
200410 1.77 21 17 5
200411 1.54 20 8 2
200412 1.39 19 6 0
200501 1.58 20 11 1
200502 1.47 19 8 0
200503 1.51 21 10 1
200504 1.91 21 17 10
200505 1.49 20 11 1
200506 1.44 22 6 1
200507 1.43 20 5 0
200508 1.36 22 6 0
200509 1.46 20 11 0
200510 1.82 21 18 5
200511 1.40 19 8 0
200512 1.40 19 8 0
200601 1.53 19 8 4
200602 1.48 17 11 0
200603 1.38 22 7 0
200604 1.61 19 13 2
200605 1.62 21 14 3
200606 1.75 21 17 6
200607 1.72 19 15 4
200608 1.38 19 10 1
200609 1.25 16 5 0
200610 1.35 18 7 0
200611 1.28 16 5 0
200612 1.25 17 3 0
200701 1.32 15 5 1
200702 1.39 16 3 2
200703 1.63 22 9 5
200704 1.35 19 4 0
200705 1.37 22 4 0
200706 1.57 21 12 1
200707 1.86 20 14 8
200708 2.50 23 22 16
200709 1.78 19 17 4
200710 1.96 23 20 8
200711 2.55 21 20 18
200712 2.01 19 18 11
200801 3.37 21 21 20
200802 2.46 20 20 18
200803 2.80 20 20 17
200804 2.16 22 22 14
200805 1.96 21 20 7
200806 2.46 21 21 20
200807 3.20 22 22 21
200808 2.53 21 21 18
200809 4.20 21 21 21
200810 7.77 23 23 23
200811 5.98 19 19 18
200812 4.30 21 21 20
200901 3.65 20 20 20
200902 3.86 19 19 19
200903 4.27 22 22 21
200904 3.40 21 21 21
200905 2.95 20 20 20
200906 2.43 22 22 19
200907 2.29 22 22 12
200908 2.01 21 20 8
200909 1.87 21 19 5
200910 2.08 22 22 10
200911 1.80 20 13 5
200912 1.44 20 11 1
201001 2.04 19 17 7
201002 1.82 19 14 5
201003 1.31 23 3 0
201004 1.56 20 10 3
201005 3.15 20 20 17
201006 2.26 22 21 13
201007 2.05 21 17 11
201008 1.78 22 16 4
201009 1.58 21 11 3
201010 1.54 21 10 2
201011 1.59 21 12 3
201012 1.20 15 2 1
201101 1.51 20 8 1
201102 1.44 19 7 3
201103 1.71 22 15 8
201104 1.43 19 6 2
201105 1.52 21 10 1
201106 1.60 22 15 2
201107 1.51 19 10 0
201108 3.37 23 23 21
201109 2.80 21 21 18
201110 2.41 21 21 14
201111 2.26 21 20 11
201112 1.80 19 16 4
correspond to the intuitive volatility we see in the news, and it has
the advantage that it's easy to compute and understand.
According to this measure of volatility, it was high from 1929-34, and
then, except for a brief spurt in 1937, remained low until the tech
bubble began in 1996.
John
Re: Financial topics
John, if the stock market is close to twice the trend value, why hasn't it crashed to around DOW 2000-3000? It's been about 3 years and that was all it took the last time around.
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