Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

Paul Volcker
1982. When I saw a line snaking around eight city blocks in Columbus, Ohio for people who wanted to sell their blood at the Alpha Plasma Center. Nothing says end of the world like people waiting in line for hours to sell their life's blood for twenty bucks.

I was building days in motels chains when construction was crushed. Over the decades from the Nixon shock to crush the workers with operation 936 one thing stands out. The national ability to remain absolutely clueless.

Now I know professionals with college degrees who sell plasma every week.

[John]

> Meanwhile, recent birth data from Japan and Western Europe is
> below replacement.

> Now the US birth rate has fallen well below replacement at just
> 1.77 or thereabouts.

> Conditions in the US have deteriorated markedly in just a few
> years. In just a few years, not only has the US lost its ability
> to better maintain life, it has lost its ability to replace
> existing life.

Well, here's an explanation that ties everything together.

Just as the Baby Boom followed the end of WW II, we're in
a period of declining births, as WW III approaches.

That means that the average population age is increasing,
since there are fewer young people.

That means that the life expectancy figures are going to be
dominated more by older people than by younger people, and
since older people are more likely to die, life expectancy
should decrease. (I think I have that right.)

Another factor today is that older people are considered pretty much
worthless, and therefore they have little reason to even try to live.
This would affect their willingness to accept chemotherapy and other
life-prolonging treatments, which would reduce life expectancy.

[Higgenbotham]

Another factor today is that older people are considered pretty much
worthless, and therefore they have little reason to even try to live.
This would affect their willingness to accept chemotherapy and other
life-prolonging treatments, which would reduce life expectancy.

I think this aspect definitely works to help explain some of the decline. Though, oddly, of all of the causes of death, cancer deaths are still going down as other causes level off or increase. But I think there are other factors at work there (such as declines in smoking and fewer factory jobs where workers are exposed to carcinogens).

Life expectancy numbers are supposedly age adjusted to account for increases or declines in average age of the population. However, the question would be whether those adjustments are accurate. I've long suspected they are not. The reason I've suspected they are not is those states which saw the heaviest influx of young Mexicans years ago had the best improvements in life expectancy. We may be seeing the reverse of that now. However, digging into the numbers more shows the highest jumps in death rates among younger people.

[Higgenbotham]

The big question in my mind is whether the things I said would be coincident or would shortly follow evident long term stress on the population are going to happen soon or not. The first would be whether there will be a devastating stock market crash and whether it will happen soon.

[Higgenbotham]

Short term, I'm seeing lots of articles about how Millennials are now buying homes and some are zooming past the starter home to buy a trade up home as their first home. That's a joke. Sure, a few Millennials are buying homes and percentage-wise a lot more Millennials are buying homes than a few years ago when nearly none were buying. But new home sales are still pathetic overall. However, the fact that the few Millennials who can buy homes are now buying seems to indicate the economy is near its peak (of this cycle). That's similar to unemployment and unemployment claims being very low while workforce participation and wages are still pathetic.

[Higgenbotham]

Anyway, I'm now seeing a possible secondary top (the primary top having occurred on January 26) in the stock market on Wednesday, June 6.

[John]

Anyway, I'm now seeing a possible secondary top (the primary top having occurred on January 26) in the stock market on Wednesday, June 6.

How did you pick June 6?

[Higgenbotham]

Anyway, I'm now seeing a possible secondary top (the primary top having occurred on January 26) in the stock market on Wednesday, June 6.

How did you pick June 6?

From Y2K to October 10, 2007 was 2840 days. 2840 days from October 10, 2007 was July 20, 2015. That was the last high before a big and quick panic. Notice I picked the date in 2007 that was between the closing high and the intraday all time high to make it work exactly. So if that worked, let's try the 2009 low. So from Y2K to March 6, 2009 was 3353 days. Adding 3353 days to March 6, 2009 is May 11, 2018. May 11 was one trading day before the last high. The panic in 2015 was from July 20 to August 24 - let's say 35 calendar days. 35 calendar days from May 11 is June 15. It might stick in trader's heads that June 12, 2018 or 6-12-18 is exactly double March 6, 2009, or 3-6-9. And there could be a big and quick panic starting around June 12. Virtually all of the August 2015 panic happened in 4 days!

From the July 19, 2007 high to the October 11, 2007 high was 84 calendar days. 84 calendar days from March 13, 2018 (all time Nasdaq high to that point when a decline ensued) is June 5.

From the S&P 500 all time high on January 26 to the next high on March 13 was 30 trading days. Adding 60 trading days to March 13 is June 6.

From the April low to the next low was 23 trading days. 23 trading days from the second low, if a Lindsay low-low-high, will be June 6.

[Higgenbotham]

Posted back in 2013.

I love Higgy's "cyclic numerology" predictions, but they have not panned out. I am still completely committed to the coming generational collapse, but remain fully in the Taleb black swan camp. Something will trigger the demise, but none of us can possibly know what it will be. Why ArchDuke Ferdinand? Why anything? Only through hindsight will it be explainable. The generational cycles are as close to prediction as is possible. Reversion to the mean implies one hell of a huge collapse.

Of course, Carl was mostly, if not totally correct. But the worm has started to turn for me in 2018 and let's see if it continues.

Nothing in the world can take the place of persistence. Talent will not; nothing is more common that unsuccessful individuals with talent. Genius will not; unrewarded genius is almost a proverb. Education will not; the world is full of educated derelicts. Persistence and determination alone are omnipotent.

[aeden]

You just conveyed fluid intelligence in healthy adults. Fluid intelligence involves reasoning and problem solving for problems to which familiar solutions are not available. Fluid intelligence tends to decline with age. The pattern recognition over the last month is pathway in this descending triangle. The results of our endeavor early was categorized as sideways if lucky. Also as we mentioned in graphs the peak was seen early as we indeed commented when two steps ahead you seen as a crackpot when one step ahead a genius. I considered the point valid when cracks were seen we hedged.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06- ... eds-people
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-06- ... pound-sand

In response, George Soros flipped out, openly suggesting that Salvini might be financed by Vladimir Putin, saying he is "very worried about Russia's influence on Europe in general and on the new Italian government."
+++ George Soros : “gli italiani hanno diritto a sapere se Salvini è finanziato da Putin, io sono molto preoccupato per influenze russe “+++ #economicfest
— Stefano Feltri (@StefanoFeltri) June 3, 2018
"I do not know if Salvini was funded by Moscow, but the public has a right to know" said Soros.
Soros translated: Any government who puts their citizens ahead of migrants is now a Putin puppet.

L is correct in my view as we meander going forward. Overweight cash in portfolios as the “risk” of a failure has not been absolved as of yet,
Positions are carrying a “tighter than normal” stop-loss level, and; We will quickly add negative hedges as necessary on any failure of support.
Wildcard is Brazil and the Madura mental shipwreck.