An explanation of the financial crisis

[protagonist]

I don't believe that viruses are as destructive as they are hyped out to be. Every virus has its strengths and weaknesses. They target only certain systems. Hence, a worldwide plague wiping out most of humanity is not possible, unless some condition has been met beforehand, such as mass famine. Swine flu is very statistically unlikely to cause a death so there is nothing to be afraid of.

[Paul]

I think the confusion is due to discussion of two different things, the cause of the current financial crisis, and the two root problems all societies have faced for the last several thousand years.

There are two problems every group faces, the problem of the bell curve and the problem of compound interest.

The problem of the bell curve is very simple, in measurement of any skill or ability that lends itself to measurement, the distribution of ability in that skill will lie along the classic bell curve, and the average will lie at the center of the curve. Half the population will be above average, half will be below average. In any society that has advanced into something more advanced than hand tooling and craft work, intelligence is the prime ability and it does indeed lie along a bell curve distribution. When the intelligence level required to hold the average job in a society advances beyond the average intelligence level, you have a major and developing problem, what do you do with the people who fall on the left hand side of the curve?

The problem of compound interest is the inverse of that "if you invest 100 dollars at 5% for 100 years compounded monthly, how much will you have" that we all did in grade school. Simply flip it on it's head, "if 100 men each invest 10 billion dollars at 7%, how long before they possess collectively all the money currently extant in the world? If owning 20% of the money in the world gives them control of everything, how long until they control the Earth?". Figure it up, it's not that long.

Didn't say I had answers to the problems, just that I know what they are. But you can find discussions of both in the Old Testament, and just about every other religous work for that matter. Hah - for that matter, the one time Christ is wildly angry, and beats the crap out of a bunch of people and runs them off, who are they? Bankers! (Matt 21:12)

[protagonist]

Uhm, actually I thought they were just people selling stuff in a temple or some sacred place, and Jesus only kicked over their stalls.

Your bell curve does not take into account the fact that people can be educated. The average job requires an average education, which the majority of the countries in the West do have. The problem isn't so much as people can't handle a job as much as there not being a job for them to begin with.

[JimZ]

A few observations on this thread:

1. Innovation is ALWAYS the answer to bad economic times - as long as it is not killed by whatever government is ruling. It may take a year, ten years, even 20, but at some point out of the rubble of a collapsed economy, innovation creates new opportunities. Over a hundred years ago some genius at the US Patent office declared that everything that could be invented had been invented. When I was in high school I could not even envision the line of work I was in in the mid 1990's. In the mid 1990's I worked for a computer company that supported mobile field sales forces with laptop computers. In the late 1970's in high school no one even envisioned that - even Bill Gates in the late 70's was quoted as saying that computers would not be widespread. So while it is true that in the short term automation can be a job killer (although less so, in my opinion than outsourcing to Asia) at some point an innovation will demand something only the human mind and soul can deliver.

2. I think we should have a little more respect for viurses than some of the posters here are showing. Black Death in Europe (I think it was somewhere around the 1300s AD?) killed more than a quarter of the entire population. Spanish Flu in the US in 1918 killed something like 18 Million (I think). Even if Swine Flu doesn't seem so bad now don't forget that Pandemics have a nasty habit of introducing themselves in the Spring in a milder form and then rearing their Homicidal heads in the fall.

3. Dec 12 2012 - who knows what will happen, but the idea that "government" plans to wipe everyone out with superviruses makes me want to ask.....are you off your Meds? Believe me, I am NOT a big fan of government. In the US I see a federal gov't hell bent on enslaving the population with confiscatory taxes, the destruction of our currency so big debts can be paid with worthless dollars, and onerous laws and regulations that are an assault on our personal liberties. Add to that a mad sprint towards Marxism (or perhaps Fascism) at breakneck speed. But people who want to rule the world want to rule.....the world! It's no fun to be the leader of a lot of open land.

[Samir]

Innovation is ALWAYS the answer to bad economic times - as long as it is not killed by whatever government is ruling. It may take a year, ten years, even 20, but at some point out of the rubble of a collapsed economy, innovation creates new opportunities. Over a hundred years ago some genius at the US Patent office declared that everything that could be invented had been invented. When I was in high school I could not even envision the line of work I was in in the mid 1990's. In the mid 1990's I worked for a computer company that supported mobile field sales forces with laptop computers. In the late 1970's in high school no one even envisioned that - even Bill Gates in the late 70's was quoted as saying that computers would not be widespread. So while it is true that in the short term automation can be a job killer (although less so, in my opinion than outsourcing to Asia) at some point an innovation will demand something only the human mind and soul can deliver.

I've got a set of articles you should read. I posted it early in the topic, but I'm not sure how many people have read them.

Robotic Nation
Robots in 2015
Robotic Freedom
Robotic Nation FAQ
Robotic Nation Evidence

I'm a Computer Engineering student, so sometimes I take for granted many of the innovations I walk pass everyday. For instance we have a computer vision lab (I'm taking a class on computer vision next semester!). We have boards on the walls in our Light Engineering building filled with information from various studies and experiments conducted at our school. Many people don't get to see these things, so they don't seem to see the same technological future I see. Much of what people consider to still be science fiction is already science fact to me.

While much of what you are saying is true about previous spurts of innovation, you seem to be forgetting that we are heading for the singularity. Our coming technological advancement will create things that can be a substitutes to humans. Basically in the future economy you are going to need to some kind of engineer, a supervisor/manager/business administration/executive (possibly with some technical background since many working under you are robots), a researcher/scientist, an artist of some type (writer, painter, etc), or work in the public sector (legislators, executives, policy research). Even the aids to many of these professions will be autonomous machines. Teachers are debatable, but most jobs working with Robots will probably be temporary (a Human Co-Pilot to a Robot Pilot). Also most of these jobs require extensive education and training. Even After all of this we still have to worry about outsourcing in a global labor market. Even then there will probably be an excess supply of human labor (high unemployment) thanks to a very high natural/structural unemployment rate due to the lower demand for human labor compared to robotic labor.

[JimZ]

Samir,

I am willing to be corrected based on reasonable factual arguments. The titles of these articles look very interesting and I look forward to reading them. Thanks for taking the time to post them and best regards.