What if?

[Trevor]

Yeah, I would have to agree on most of it. What I would add to that list is we believe that it can't happen to us. "Oh, we can't have another depression; look what we set up to keep that from happening." "It's just Greece; there's nothing to worry about." I don't think we can be sure where the crash will originate, but likely not the United States. Europe is the top candidate, with China now on the list as well.

In back 1931 and 1857, the failure of a single bank caused a massive chain reaction, so it doesn't have to be anything big.

[Marc]

Agree with your list addition; kinda meshes with my first item on my list I also agree that if/when everything seems to spin out of control, that the genesis of it will likely be outside of the USA, but it will severely affect America in short order. Thanks again! —Best regards, Marc

[Trevor]

Everything we've set up seems to have slowed things down, but ultimately hasn't stopped it from happening. I'm preparing as best I can, given my very limited resources. Yeah, unemployment's gone down, but the labor force is the lowest its been since the 1970's and there are millions more on disability than there were just a couple of years ago.

The only good thing about this is that assuming I succeed in surviving the Clash of Civilizations, i'll never have to live through it again.

[Marc]

Yes, so many of those official stats are likely being obfuscated and papered-over somewhat. But, despite that, I try to be an optimist, no matter how hard it is to be. Doing reasonable, diligent preparation for disasters, be they blizzards, tornadoes, other natural disasters, or even civil/military disaster is not a ridiculous thing to do, I feel, if done in a manageable, common-sense way. And again, we could be lucky and see any Crisis climax be surprisingly much less than it otherwise could be: again, it can be so hard to predict the future. Let's hope that we get fortunate and that it turns out that way. —Best regards, Marc

[Trevor]

Well, I'm not known for my optimism. The only thing I can really do is help my parents pay down their debt before things go to hell. If it was just us, I think the crisis war could indeed be delayed, since we're a pretty wealthy country. However, China is not and there are real signs of a contracting economy. They've also got their one-child policy. If I were them, I'd much rather have them causing trouble in other countries than raising hell domestically.

Still, I don't think Greece will be the catalyst. It's far more likely to be China, and if we're talking about Europe, Italy or Spain.

[Marc]

It is always thoughtful and prudent to think about paying down debt, although I would constantly ask yourself if paying down debt (or the amount/rate you're wanting to use to pay it down) makes sense in light of current/other obligations that you (or your parents) have. Of course, you probably know that and have that in mind I also agree that China strikes me as a much bigger worry regarding global systemic stability (and military conflict) than Greece does (although I do agree that Spain and Italy are fairly worrisome as well). Thanks yet again for the valuable thoughts. —Best regards, Marc

[Trevor]

We can't pay it off as fast as I'd like, considering all the bills, but I'm doing my best. We're better off than a lot of people currently are. Thankfully, my family wasn't foolish enough to take out Second Mortgages to go on vacation or anything of the sort. Yeah, there was massive amounts of fraud, but you also had a lot of people doing stupid things during the boom because they assumed it was permanent.

As for WWIII, there's no guarantee it'll happen all at the same time. It might start in one region first, like the Middle East, and erupt in the pacific 2-3 years later.

[Marc]

Very true again in regards to the actors involved in the financial crisis: while we both probably agree that key personnel within financial institutions deserve a bigger share of the blame for all the financial improvidence that has occurred, I do agree that many borrowers would have done much better to show better restraint and intelligence when it came to borrowing. (And yes, eschewing any second mortgages for vacations and such is smart finance ) But, it sounds like you and your family, all in all, are managing things reasonably prudently, given whatever resources you all have.

And you are surely on target regarding how any possible World War III could roll out: yes, it could start as a Middle East theater, then add in a Pacific theater, etc. Thanks again for the cogent comments. —Best regards, Marc

[Trevor]

The Middle East is where things really seem to be falling apart. The big risk is Israel panicking and attack Iran or someone else. It happened a few years ago with Lebanon and if the Palestinians had joined in, it'd have been much worse. We might try to stay out of it, but since Israel is held in high esteem by most Americans, we'd eventually intervene.

However, I do feel that there has to be a collapse first. It may not take long, but I see it as a necessary component. I would also wager that not everyone will be affected equally by a collapse. Some may survive better than others can.

Even so, the insanity gets worse every day, with our leaders acting like complete morons along with many investors. The housing bubble has mostly bottomed out, but we've still got others.

[Marc]

Thanks again. If Israel does attack Iran, I'm betting that it will be a few quick strikes followed by getting out fast. I'm thinking that it is more likely that continued covert operations against Iran will be used, with Israel hoping and expecting that some sort of "Velvet Revolution" will finally topple the "old guard" in Iran in the near future (probably in line with John's thinking on this). And yes, I think that economic collapse would need to likely happen before truly nasty global military conflicts occur, although if in the Middle East someone really tries messing with Israel, then military conflict, as you seem to agree, could precede economic collapse. Thanks for sharing. —Best regards, Marc