A site with predictive success similar to GD

[CrisisEraDynamo]

Mr. Xenakis, you said that if there was a site with similar predictive success to yours, you'd like to know what it is.

Well, here it is: Michael Lombardi's "Critical Warning Number Six." To her him tell it, he predicted five major economic events when everyone else was disregarding him.

Maybe you already know about it, but I'll just post it here for the other readers.

[John]

Mr. Xenakis, you said that if there was a site with similar
predictive success to yours, you'd like to know what it is.

Well, here it is: Michael Lombardi's "Critical Warning Number
Six." To her him tell it, he predicted five major economic events
when everyone else was disregarding him.
http://www.lombardidigital.com/lcpa-sep ... e=11112011

Maybe you already know about it, but I'll just post it here for
the other readers.

Please don't do that to me again.

On your suggestion, I listened to this presentation, and it was
obnoxious beyond belief. It started out just being annoying, since
he's turned off all the controls on the player (though you can use the
space bar to start/stop). That's a real turnoff. But I listened
anyway, and all I got was a headache. He actually said, "I'm a humble
person," which almost made me gag. A lot of what he said was absurd,
and the rest was just a sales pitch.

First off, when I say that no other web site has a better predictive
success than mine, I'm talking about economic and geopolitical issues,
not just economic issues. If you want just economic issues, there are
many choices who are better than Lombardi: Michael (Mish) Shedlock,
Bill McBridge (Calculated Risk), John Mauldin, John Hussman, Nouriel
Roubini, to name a few.

Since I listened to this super-obnoxious sales pitch all the way
through, I took notes. For anyone who'd like to know what it says,
here are his five previous wondrous predictions that he claims makes
him the greatest in the world:

1. 2002 - buy gold
2. March 2006 - get out of housing
3. Late 2006 - recession in 2007.
4. March 2007 - there'll be a stock market crash
5. March 2009 - turned bullish on stocks.

I was talking about these things long before him. I was talking about
a housing bubble in 2004, and economist Dean Baker was talking about
it in 2002.

However, I'll give him this: If he really predicted a big stock
market rise in March, 2009, then he can take credit for that.

He says that because America is bankrupt, we're entering a new
recession with hyperinflation that wil be worse than the Great
Depression.

Then he goes on to make his new predictions:

1. Devaluation of the dollar
2. Gold to rise to $3000/oz. Gold mining stocks to rise.
3. Euro is as done as the U.S. dollar.
4. Inflation will become a problem, interest rates will rise.
5. DJIA will fall 46% from where it is today, to test March 2009 lows.

For each of these 5 cases, he says he has a report that took hundreds
of hours to research and write, that his company plans to sell each
report for $95, but YOU can get it for FREE!!!

At the end of his super-obnoxious presentation, you get to click on a
link that will take you to where you can get the FREE reports.

If you go there, it turns out that you can indeed get five reports for
FREE!! All you have to do is subscribe to Lombardi's crisis alert
report for $295 per year.

And he says: If you're one of the first 10,000 people to subscribe,
then the price goes down to $195!!!!!! What an obnoxious asshole.

Anyway, here's the link you can go to at the end to subscribe to his
newsletter. Better hurry! You want to be among the first 10,000!!

https://www.lombardipublishing.com/Secu ... 011&split=

Actually I am curious about a couple of things.

For item #1 above, he says that there's an ETF you can buy on a
foreign currency that will go up as the dollar goes down. You have to
get the report to see what it is, but my guess is an ETF on the yen.
Does anyone know for sure?

For item #5, he says that he'll tell you the name of a stock that will
go up as the stock market goes down. Does anyone know what stock he's
referring to?

John

[CrisisEraDynamo]

Sorry, man. I didn't mean to offend you, I was just trying to help you out, since you're into economics and things like that. This seemed right up your alley, so I figured I should post it.

[John]

Oh, you don't have to apologize.

I was just being irascible.

John

[rolivier79]

The WSJ just predicted the resolution on Europe from a futuristic 2021 perspective. Obviously the article lacks a GD basis.

2021: The New Europe http://on.wsj.com/uGVUUf

Why I disagree
-> you can't print your way out of this crisis
-> Iran | israel don't usher in a crisis to distract from Europe
-> Europe will save the euro: seriously?
-> how do political fraction's form regional blocks within Europe. And if so, how is that an improvement

[thrive]

For item #5, he says that he'll tell you the name of a stock that will
go up as the stock market goes down. Does anyone know what stock he's
referring to?

John

Hi, John -

FDO, Family Dollar Stores, is a stock I have noticed that, from my point of view, has a specific correlation to the SPY. I did the study before Nelson Peltz made the offer to take the company private in Feb 2011 (which was rejected), so there was a large gyration in the price and I have not updated the study since then.

I know that by posting my analysis I am opening myself up to criticism for what some may say is my ridiculous analysis, but what the heck, I thought it was an interesting study. Even though it seems to be on a business site, I am much better at analyzing stocks than getting business, do not have clients and I am not actively looking for clients, so this is not any sort of sales pitch. The study is already on the site, and you asked the question, John, so here is my study of FDO. Just go to the EXAMPLES section. http://stockmarketeffect.com.

Thanks, John, as always, for your excellent insights.

[jimmyjack]

uch has been made on this forum about the unsustainable nature of the Current level of U.S. Government Debt

However, there has been limited discussion regarding the difference between Internal Government Debt and External Government Debt.

Internal Government Debt = the sum of all government debt owed to persons ( individuals, corporations, partnerships, trusts, etc. ) subject to the laws of the government issuing the debt

External Government Debt = the sum of all government debt owed to persons ( individuals, corporations, partnerships, trusts, etc. ) not subject to the laws of the government issuing the debt

Gross External Government Debt = the Sum of all debts owed to all foreign persons, the same as External Government Debt

Net External Government Debt = the Sum for all foreign countries, of Gross External Government Debt owed to persons of a single foreign country, less the foreign debt the government of that same foreign country owes to U.S. persons ( assuming the U.S. is the country for which the Net External Debt is being determined )

[OLD1953]

Admitted, there is a considerable difference. Generally speaking though, I think we tend to ask the wrong question most of the time. The question really is not "will the dollar collapse" or "will the bond market collapse", the real question is "can the US dollar remain the world reserve currency"? And the corollary to that is of course "what can replace the US dollar as world reserve currency".

There are benefits to holding the world reserve currency, but there are also considerable drawbacks. It would not be just a total negative for the US to no longer hold that hot potato.

So what could replace the dollar as the reserve currency? And right now, there really isn't much out there. The EURO is a prime example of what will happen to market basket currencies, everyone will try to manipulate it to suit themselves. Nobody trusts the Chinese that much, and they are killing what trust they had daily, and gleefully. India, Russia, Iran, OPEC - the notion of those doing anything real is just not worthy of discussion sans some enormous happenings and how do you discuss those kinds of things save as wild speculation? As well to discuss the chances of being struck by lightning.

IF the dollar was displaced as reserves, then we'd be looking at something physical to replace it, since solid currency in quantity is nonexistant. I suspect we'd be looking at a mix of rare metals, gold just one among them, and that would be bad news. Most metals have some industrial use now, including gold, and locking up any large quantities is not a good thing. But that might be our future.