Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Investments, gold, currencies, surviving after a financial meltdown
jdcpapa
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by jdcpapa »

vincecate wrote:
jdcpapa wrote:I find it quite intriguing, given present public sentiment, that as of January of 2011 the Fed has actually reduced it's position in public debt over the last decade from 15% to 9%.
And they did this by counting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac debt as private debt?
The acquisition of 1.25 trillion in mortgage securities from Fannie and Freddie, funded by increasing participating banking reserves, (300 billion of which has apparently become worthless and replaced with Treasuries), appears on the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve as an asset. It does not hit the books of the US, but for the aforementioned swap.*

In addition, the Treasury has funded both entities in excess of 500 billion (expected to top 900 billion). The resulting preferred stock acquisition as reported by both entities is worthless. None of this hits the budget!

*Please also take note that this transaction earned a disclaimer in the US 9/2010 finacial report in as much as it may prevent the Federal Reserve from funding future public debt needs due to the potential for write-off.

MnMark
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by MnMark »

RDRUNR wrote: From my perspective some answers to your questions:

1. Printing money is not inflationary, spending it is. Thus far not all of tarp has been spent, QE1 and QE2 haven't been spent.

2. Yes I do. Seems the world population (even China at billions) believe more in the US and it's economy than 100 million Amercians do.

3. By budgeting responsibily. They will be forced and it will suck, but in the end, US will be stronger than ever.

4. The US Gov't showing some backbone to cut spending, raise interest rates and in turn this would restore confidence.

"If many people think cash is good, then expecting hyperinflation is the contrarian play". Seems like many are majority are running the opposite way and betting against the USD, thus those in cash are true contrarians, those in PMs are followers.
FYI There are 300 million Americans.

I'm curious what makes you think the US Gov't is going to "show some backbone to cut spending" or "budget responsibly." Have you noticed that in the recent fighting over raising the borrowing ceiling the only thing they could agree on was to allow more borrowing of money? The Republicans are committed to no tax increases and the Dems are committed to no spending cuts. In fact the only thing they can agree on is more tax cuts - Obama supported a "temporary" decrease in the payroll tax.

What is going to change that? Do you really think that if the economy begins to tank even more, if the financial markets get even more panicky, that the response of the government is going to be to raise taxes and cut spending to balance the budget? That is not going to happen. The only debate will be about how much additional spending and how much more tax cutting to do to "stimulate" the economy.

The government hasn't been responsible about the budget in thirty years, not even in the boom years of the 1990s - in fact that's when government spending ramped up even more. There is no chance at all that they are going to start being responsible now with an unemployment rate continuing to hover around 10%.

They will borrow more, which will require the Fed to print oney to buy the bonds (indirectly). They will do it because the people will insist that they do it, by insisting that taxes not be raised and spending not be cut.

How many people do you know personally who have bought gold? I do not know a single one! I have friends who have talked about it but not one has bought it - they keep waiting for it to drop before they buy, and then when it does drop they get greedy and want it to drop even more, and miss their chance.

Gold is insurance against government monetary collapse. You buy home owner insurance, health insurance, car insurance - you should buy some monetary collapse insurance. Five or ten percent of your assets in physical gold coins, held permanently as insurance. But almost no one is doing that. The buyers of gold are mainly the big players, the Central Banks. The little guy is screwing himself by selling what little gold he has (in jewelry) for a fraction of its value to the "We Buy Gold!" people.

Become your own little Central Bank and get yourself some gold reserves. Do not rely on the beneficence of the government. They will do whatever keeps them in power, and what keeps them in power is printing money, not imposing austerity. Hyperinflations do not cost government bureaucrats their jobs. The chairman of the central banks of Zimbabwe and the Weimar Republic still had their jobs after the hyperinflations in those countries.

richard5za
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by richard5za »

Break down begins

I think what we are seeing today is a decisive break down for equities; we will know if this is so quite soon I think; they will fall to the next support level (this is a level where historically buyers have found value) What happens when it falls to the next support level depends upon whether is breaks down again or remains above the support level. I am favouring at present a tripple break down over 2 years. Lets see.

Gold is now "flavour of the month" as one of the safe havens and anything is possible including $ 2500 / ounce by the year end. Gold is not a long term investment, but something that can be "milked" now. If you buy gold or gold miners have stop losses in place and watch twice a day.
Regards, Richard

MnMark
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by MnMark »

Steve Forbes is calling for the dollar to be tied to gold:

http://finance.yahoo.com/video/companyn ... o=26345154

I believe eventually this is what will happen. It will not be a fixed standard though, but a floating standard (something Forbes aludes to). The government in 1933 was hamstrung by a dollar that was exchangeable for (approximately) 1/20 ounce of gold. The government wanted to inflate the money supply so it had make it illegal for citizens to own gold so that it could devalue the dollar to 1/35 of an ounce of gold.

People will lose faith in the dollar as the deficits grow and grow and the printing goes on and on. So the government will need to re-establish faith in the dollar, but without hamstringing itself the way it did when we were on a strict gold standard where the dollar was tightly linked to a specific amount of gold. Instead, the goverment will want to value the gold it holds in Fort Knox (320,000,000 ounces) at a high enough value that the massive amounts of dollars in existence (and needed to be printed) will be stabilized in value. At $10,000 per ounce, they can back $3.2 trillion dollars. At $50,000 per ounce, they can back $16 trillion dollars. That, I think, is the order of magnitude of gold price (in dollars) we are looking at.

Now the dollar is not redeemable for gold, so there is no need for the government to confiscate it from citizens before implementing this. And they can allow it to float, which allows them to gradually print more money and let the dollar price of gold float higher as they see fit.

------------

As an aside: to those who belief we will have a deflation: can you name one example in history of a country that had a fiat currency that had a deflation like you are talking about? If a deflation is what we have coming, surely there have been previous examples. I can't think of one.

MnMark
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by MnMark »

richard5za wrote:Gold is now "flavour of the month" as one of the safe havens and anything is possible including $ 2500 / ounce by the year end. Gold is not a long term investment, but something that can be "milked" now. If you buy gold or gold miners have stop losses in place and watch twice a day.
Regards, Richard
I must disagree with you. I believe gold is in the process of re-assuming its traditional role as a primary medium of saving (as opposed to a medium of exchange). Those who are saving in dollars are being creamed...my heart goes out to the retired people who are getting zero percent interest on their savings bonds and seeing the value depreciate by the inflation rate each year.

I find the analysis of FOFOA (http://fofoa.blogspot.com/) convincing. A government needs a medium of exchange that they can inflate over time, and people need a medium of saving that they can be assured cannot be inflated away. If a government adopts a strict gold standard (we will give you 1 ounce of gold for 20 dollars) then they are hobbled when there are downturns or wars and they can't inflate the currency some to "painlessly" confiscate some of the wealth of the country to spend. If they try to do so, there is a run on the gold and the country's gold reserves are drained. But if they have no link to gold at all, there is no fiscal responsibility at all. Spending and printing occurs with abandon.

So what works instead is for the government to manage the value of its currency against the price in gold, just as governments (like the Swiss central bank recently) defend the value of their currency by buying or selling other currencies. Currently we have a free-for-all where all these fiat currencies try to devalue against one another. There is nothing fixed. As faith evaporates in this completely fiat scheme, governments will be forced to begin to defend their currencies against gold. Which means the US government will begin buying or selling gold to target a particular exchange rate (price) of gold in dollars. They could not possibly defend a gold price at the low price it is now - the gold reserves would be drained immediately. But they could defend a price in the multi-tens-of-thousands-of-dollars per ounce. They announce they are willing to buy or sell at, say $25,000 per ounce. The market evaluates the desireability of the dollar and the value floats up and down as needed. If the government needs to print more money, it does so, recognizing that the price of gold in dollars will increase.

The difference between that scenario and now is that the US does not buy or sell gold to manage the value of the dollar. It will be forced to do that eventually because, IMO, there is no chance the government will begin to be responsible with its spending. They will spend and print until no one wants dollars anymore, and then they will have to be willing to buy/sell gold to manage the value of dollars. However they will not go back to a strict gold standard where they guarantee, for example, one ounce of gold for twenty dollars, permanently. It will float on a daily basis like it does now in the foreign exchange market.

vincecate
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by vincecate »

MnMark wrote: Which means the US government will begin buying or selling gold to target a particular exchange rate (price) of gold in dollars. They could not possibly defend a gold price at the low price it is now - the gold reserves would be drained immediately. But they could defend a price in the multi-tens-of-thousands-of-dollars per ounce. They announce they are willing to buy or sell at, say $25,000 per ounce.
[...]
However they will not go back to a strict gold standard where they guarantee, for example, one ounce of gold for twenty dollars, permanently. It will float on a daily basis like it does now in the foreign exchange market.
Something like this is their best bet to try to save the dollar from hyperinflation, and I do expect it at some point.

The government has like $14 trillion in debt with much of this rather short term. There is also a few trillion dollars out. And they are adding like $1.6 trillion per year. So lets ballpark $10 trillion 2 years from now.

The US has something like 300 million oz of gold. So to fully back $10 trillion it would take a price of $33,333/oz. So your $25,000 seems a plausible number to defend for now. As they keep printing and people take out gold, this would have to get higher and higher. If many people take out gold and they are printing even faster than today (both of which I expect) the price could go up fast. I doubt they could balance the budget before gold crossed $100,000/oz.

Another danger though is that they sell the gold too soon at a lower price and so don't have it to try to hold things together at $25,000/oz. When hyperinflation starts and gold is $10,000/oz I expect there will be plenty who say "sell some government gold". There has even been some push already. So they may sell too soon.

richard5za
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by richard5za »

MnMark wrote:I must disagree with you. I believe gold is in the process of re-assuming its traditional role as a primary medium of saving
Yes, its quite possible you may be right. With great resistance from USA, Britain and others. I was looking at things from an investment perspective in a topsy turvy world, and the first priority in investing is not to lose money.

The math is this: If I start with 100 and want growth of 5% per annum, but make a poor investment decion and take a loss of 10%, then I need to find an investment to take me from 90 to 105 which is a 16.7% growth. As my growth requirements increase so do my risks.
Richard

richard5za
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by richard5za »

Gold and miners give insight to market expectations

With gold shooting skywards, gold miners got a 'bloody nose' yesterday but the variance was interesting and needs careful analysis: One of my miners dropped 2.5% but another less than 1.0%. Dropping PE ratios will affect all shares and investors will offset rising earnings in miners against lower PE ratios in the general market.

Previously from August 8 to the following Friday on the days the market fell and gold increased, gold miners also increased. Now gold is increasing, miners are falling for the present but not as much as the general market. That says to me that yesterday's sellers were people who have revised their expectations of forward PE ratios in the general market.

In due course, as gold rises, miners with their high fixed costs should come back into their own with fast rising earnings and rise faster than gold.

vincecate
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by vincecate »

richard5za wrote: In due course, as gold rises, miners with their high fixed costs should come back into their own with fast rising earnings and rise faster than gold.
Yes, but till the market has totally crashed the fact that miners P/E is dropping with the whole market means that you are probably better off just in gold than gold miners during the crash.

Another problem is that miners could be nationalized or have an "excess profits tax" imposed on them. Venezuala just nationalized their gold miners.
Last edited by vincecate on Sun Aug 21, 2011 8:38 am, edited 1 time in total.

richard5za
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Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

Post by richard5za »

vincecate wrote:you are probably better off just in gold than gold miners during the crash.
You may be right, Vince. My miners increased 3.5% yesterday, but I am showing better overall growth on gold and silver bullion at present, but very happy with my overall portfolio.

Much more important is the "quo vadis" of precious metals. Surely gold must now correct and consolidate before continuing its upward journey?

I am not a buyer of gold at present levels; rather a holder watching with fascinated interest.

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