richard5za wrote:The support point 10 500 represents an 18% decline so if the Dow breaks down through this level the next stop could be 9000?
One thing I'm looking at: The S&P was in a range of 1250-1370 for several months. The strong break through 1250 implied an equal range move to 1130 (almost there this morning). This would be the 18% loss you're referring to, but on the S&P. A break of the 1130 level would then imply a crash of 240 points to 890.
On timing. There have been some 12 trading day down moves in the past few months and today is day 11.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Silver is up big and S&P is down big so all my options are doing very well today. But the plan was for the silver to go down when the market crashed so that I could take profits from my S&P puts and get more silver at a low price. So things are not exactly going to plan. But we have not had a full crash yet, so things could still work out.
Silver is up big and S&P is down big so all my options are doing very well today. But the plan was for the silver to go down when the market crashed so that I could take profits from my S&P puts and get more silver at a low price. So things are not exactly going to plan. But we have not had a full crash yet, so things could still work out.
You're killing those New York sharks today and that's what counts! When we see the pictures of the traders with their heads in their hands tonight we'll know who took their money!
The S&P just took another dump to a new low a minute ago. TIme for John to quote Galbraith again.
"The singular feature of the great crash of 1929 was that the worst continued to worsen. What looked one day like the end proved on the next day to have been only the beginning. Nothing could have been more ingeniously designed to maximise the suffering, and also ensure that as few as possible escaped the common misfortune. The fortunate speculator who had funds to answer the first margin call presently got another and more urgent one, and if he met that there would still be another. In the end all the money he had was extracted from him and lost. The man with the smart money, who was safely out of the market when the first crash came, naturally went back in to pick up bargains. (Not only were a record 12,894,650 shares sold on 25 October; precisely the same number were bought.) The bargains then suffered a ruinous fall. Even the man who waited out all of October and all of November, who saw the volume of trading return to normal and saw Wall Street become as placid as a produce market, and who then bought common stocks would see their value drop to a third or a fourth of the purchase price within the next twenty-four months. The Coolidge bull market was a remarkable phenomenon. The ruthlessness of its liquidation was, in its own way, equally remarkable."
It really feels like it.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
With 2 hours of trade left if the S&P crashes through 1130, then perhaps it can start to accelerate down. The S&P rallied to 1130 several times last summer.
By the way, I am not short, having gotten out around 1225 as posted last week.
Here we go, the S&P just hit around 1130, let's see what happens.
If it does accelerate through 1130, I will get ready to put bids in on houses and land.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham wrote:
You're killing those New York sharks today and that's what counts! When we see the pictures of the traders with their heads in their hands tonight we'll know who took their money!
I put a lot of money (for me) into S&P puts over the last 2 years and most of them expired worthless. I don't think I have even broke even on my total put purchases yet. But today really does help. And the trend is good for S&P puts.
For those of us who only know the great crash,if people are smarter this time .Get out stay out.
How or what does it (they ) do from there ?
jusme
Those who were looking for stocks to go down today would know better than me because I wasn't looking for it.
As we were saying, the debt downgrade was well telegraphed for months, weeks, and days in stages. But given the reaction of the market, it seems some people didn't really believe it was happening until it happened.
There was a quick panic under 1130 for a few minutes and now the market is recovering in the last hour. Conventional wisdom would say that may be the end of the first stage of the panic.
Last edited by Higgenbotham on Mon Aug 08, 2011 3:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham wrote:
You're killing those New York sharks today and that's what counts! When we see the pictures of the traders with their heads in their hands tonight we'll know who took their money!
I put a lot of money (for me) into S&P puts over the last 2 years and most of them expired worthless. I don't think I have even broke even on my total put purchases yet. But today really does help. And the trend is good for S&P puts.
I've still lost money being short stock futures even with a few good trades over the past 3 months. But I've now made money overall since 2009 (not a lot) which wasn't the case 3 months ago. I'm assuming after today that you've done quite well overall taking your silver calls into account. So congratulations on that.
While the periphery breaks down rather slowly at first, the capital cities of the hegemon should collapse suddenly and violently.
Higgenbotham wrote:
I've still lost money being short stock futures even with a few good trades over the past 3 months. But I've now made money overall since 2009 (not a lot) which wasn't the case 3 months ago. I'm assuming after today that you've done quite well overall taking your silver calls into account. So congratulations on that.
Thanks. Yes, long term silver calls have done well. It would take a real crash for my total investment in S&P puts to do as well as my investment in silver calls has done. I thought we would get the crash sooner so I would not be buying puts for so long. I liked the two of them together though. Either Bernanke printed like crazy and silver went up, or he did not and the market crashed. So it seemed to sort of hedge the Bernanke risk (though I really think he has to print). Even if I only made money on one it was ok. The hope/dream was to make money on both, of course.
