Financial topics

[Higgenbotham]

The most common business expansions I'm seeing are

An RV park expanding its size (typically 50 to 100%)
A new winery

During my conversation with our mailman I noted to him that he will be buying an RV whether it's a boom, a depression, or something in between and he's not going to wait 15 years to do it. He answered very affirmatively.

I added that for that reason I was trading stock in Thor Industries this week (very small amount). I said no matter what happens with China trade, RVs are going to be selling in the immediate future. I sold it this afternoon. It was actually my worst performer this week but is always on my list.

[Higgenbotham]

The next question is how high does the market rally - to a new high or otherwise. Futures are up strongly tonight.

I'm very open to studying that question with an eye toward being short again before a new all time high is reached, depending on what is seen. I don't think we're close yet.

[Higgenbotham]

Any trader who does not realize they are gambling does not have a clear picture of what they are doing. Though if they are highly skilled, the odds are skewed somewhat in their favor.

There is no investment strategy that will preserve capital over a long time horizon, just strategies that allow it to go extinct more slowly. Wealth never survives more than a few generations no matter how much it is or who manages it. A lot of people point to gold. Gold costs roughly 1% per year to insure and store, so by that route the value of a constant amount in storage is gone in 100 years. If the storage is paid out of the value of the original holding, it will last longer and decay at 1% per year instead and only 37% of the value will be left in 100 years. If one chooses self storage, it will likely be lost or stolen when the crisis it is meant to protect against comes to pass. After decades of experience and many superb market calls, Harry Browne came to the conclusion that a "permanent portfolio" of 25% stocks, bonds, cash, and gold with yearly rebalancing is the best way to maintain your capital.

[Higgenbotham]

Having a slight edge is not the whole ball of wax. If your money is in the casino, it's in the casino.

And if you take it out of the casino and try to store it:

Yeah. They knew that back in 30 C.E. "Where moth and rust doth corrupt and thieves break in and steal."

And when there's a collapse of the scale that renders food the currency of the realm, all value will be lost except for that of any gold that may be passed down to heirs until a monetary system reconstitutes.

[FishbellykanakaDude]

Another example of the Fernando Lamas Principle: It is better to LOOK good, than to FEEL good!

[im g]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/ ... _1960s.JPG[/img]

..and Higgie, You look MAHVELOUS..!!

Thanks for the tip. I'm working on it.

Suggestions: Better lighting technicians, and ya' GOTTA get one of those white ties!

..other than that, very dapper indeed!

Aloha ko'u hoaloha! <shaka nui, dude!>

[Higgenbotham]

Suggestions: Better lighting technicians, and ya' GOTTA get one of those white ties!

..other than that, very dapper indeed!

Aloha ko'u hoaloha! <shaka nui, dude!>

You've given me hope that with better lighting and a white tie I might be able to be used in ads to market diapers to Boomers, with the theme, "It is better to LOOK good, than to FEEL good!" and "You look MAHVELOUS..in your Depends!! (or insert name of brand)".

[aeden]

Imagine that. Drones bitching about drones. And they do not even work in a hostile environment.
21 CFR 170.30

http://theantimedia.com/google-collabor ... e-strikes/

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04- ... -they-stop

[Higgenbotham]

> I've decided to take my own advice and get out of all shorts, wire
> out, and wait for the next opportunity. Final decision. From the
> top, I made 280 S&P points on a 10 lot basis.

I've always thought that some day traders actually have a form
of gambling addiction. Are you suffering any withdrawal symptoms?

I wired all the money out of my futures account this morning except for a token amount ($4,600). And almost all the rest of my money is in short term t-bills. So I have very little to no ability to take an "oh gosh I might have missed the crash" trade.

I did that on purpose after a cold, hard look this weekend.

Tonight is the first time I've had an urge to trade futures since you wrote this about a week ago. The reason I wanted to trade is I saw the stock index futures must have responded to some news, as they were quickly down about 1% and I thought there would be some volatility.

Last week I wired almost all the money out of my account, leaving only $4,611. That wasn't enough margin to trade even 1 stock index future of any kind. My first job tonight was therefore to get enough margin in my account to trade a Russell 2K which requires $4,620. I traded a silver to do that, then traded a Russell 2K.

The upshot being at some point if I want to gamble, I set things up in such a way that I have to bootstrap my account to generate the funds to be able to gamble in any significant size, or I can't. Also, that allows me to get a feel for the market while my head is screwed on straight and if it looks like I should take a bigger position I can drive over to the bank when it opens up in the morning and wire in some margin. Because it takes a lot of effort to do that, typically I do not unless the opportunity appears really exceptional.

[aeden]

The shocked and awe phase may be passing, no clue. It took the locals way over three years to to even assume it was not the Russians anymore than anyone else. The closer to the top we can see what the WTO can even do and closer to Home the aura of your name came up, full stop
they are realizing that is not how trade works. The details are ignored since group think has merit when walking in circles as we know since the Augustinian ruptures of designs.

[Higgenbotham]

Still bootstrapping. I was slowed down quite a bit when I dropped off to sleep in the middle of a trade. You might have an edge in the market but it's irrelevant if you can't stay awake. When I have big positions on, I repeat the mantra "Stay Awake, Stay Alive."

The obvious comment somebody might make is if I added over 10% to the account why not put a lot of money in. It doesn't seem to work that way.

Also, the most probable outcome is that after considerable struggle I don't get this off the ground.

I'm going to end the day and the week here and wait for some more turbulence to develop before making another move.