Financial topics

[aeden]

Nothing worse than a confused Bull will do for now H .
The Pareto effect will assert the twenty percent seen eighty percent of the problem.
The objective of narcissistic abuse is power.
These abusers act with the intent to diminish to hurt. Any route to engage emotion to manipulate.
Never talk to toxic intent. Always let them engage and go Russian into the winter.
When they are crushed march Home in silence and be found faithful.
Bad enough surviving the learned helplessness and asserting their dignity at our expense.

38.7% Stocks 6.4% Bonds 54.9% Short-term reserves

[Higgenbotham]

Correction in red.

Jeffrey Gundlach talks about what the next crisis will look like. One thing he mentions after saying that he correctly predicted in January 2016 that Trump would win is that there may be a third and even a fourth party Presidential candidate and, if there are 4 candidates (which is not the base case), it is likely Congress will decide who will be the next President.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsSo1rTqMdc

[Higgenbotham]

Millennials finally believe they got screwed by the system

JEFFREY GUNDLACH: I think what's happening is, at long last, the millennials are starting to hate the baby boomers. I mean, that's starting to pull pretty strongly, and it's about time.

I mean, the policies of the United States have been so bad for so long.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey- ... 59614.html

[Higgenbotham]

But it's all part of the cycle that we're in, where the technology has gotten way ahead of the society's ability to adapt to it. This is classic ebb and flow of history. And as I said during the 2016 election, when I predicted way back January 2016 that Trump would win, I said, if you think this election is weird in 2016, you ain't seen nothing yet. And here we are, we're already pretty-- feels like we're already pretty far into the 2020 race, even though it's only February of 2019. And we even have the possibility for a third party candidate. And we might even, in my view, have four candidates that get electoral votes, or at least have decent polling in the election.

I think the biggest thing that might be a worrisome development relative to politics is it's just possible-- I'm not saying this is a base case, but I'm open-- I say it's plausible that the next election is decided by Congress. Because it's possible that no one gets the majority of the electoral college delegates. And if you think that Congress is dysfunctional now, and that there's anger and vitriol, just imagine what it would be like if Congress actually picks the next president and vice president of States.

That would be something the House would pick, the president and the Senate would pick the vice president. And you could just imagine if they were picked candidates from different parties, how that would go. So we're in very difficult political waters. We have been for a while. And I don't think it's going to get any better anytime soon.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey- ... 48936.html

[Higgenbotham]

JEFFREY GUNDLACH: I think the people that bought at the best levels of late December-- I think that they will sell at a lower level than what they bought in it, for that same type of a thing. They bought in. They thought it was a buy at the dip. They feel emboldened by it. They've gotten an economic and psychic reward so far. But once that buy goes underwater, it will accelerate the selling, because those people will turn into sellers, I think. And that'll happen in the corporate bond market, too.

Bear market: Last year’s selloff just a ‘taste of things to come’

JULIA LA ROCHE: Do you think there's another down coming? Do you think this is a bear market that we're in?

JEFFREY GUNDLACH: Yeah. It's a bear market.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey- ... 59614.html

[Higgenbotham]

The above was published February 16. To me, it's pretty obvious that this is what is most likely to happen. And if it does the generational crash is going to be absolutely spectacular.

[Higgenbotham]

January 16, 2018. Everyone quoted below was 10 years too early but I believe will all be correct in the big picture. Everything said applies now, but even more so.

Re these representative quotes from the Financial Topics thread (this thread), all within a week of the March 2009 stock market low:

I truly believe we might have the clearest case of a bear market going forward as anytime I have experienced or studied, and that includes the Great Depression Era.

STRONGLY AGREE, THIS IS THE STATEMENT I AGREE WITH MOST

It seems to me that if I were long in the stock market I would
immediately sell, in order to beat the rush to 5000.

As I've said several times in the web log, this continues to be a
time of "maximum danger" for investors, as a panic selloff may occur
at any time.

STRONGLY AGREE, AND WE WILL SEE 5000

Now they are retiring and there is a structural outflow which will continue until more people are forced to invest than are forced to withdraw. The boomer population is so large that this won't happen for 20 years or so.

STRONGLY AGREE THOUGH NOW IT IS 10 YEARS DEMOGRAPHICALLY SPEAKING WHICH MAKES THE EXIT HARDER TO FIT THROUGH

Boomers have lived in a reality where the stock market and real estate were the best investments and the stock market always recovered from declines that were temporary. It’s very hard to accept that we are in a new reality – a new depression where stocks and real estate will not come back for decades.

STRONGLY AGREE

Funny how the estimates always seems to be better than reality. Until this changes I see no reason to expect a turn-around in stocks.

STRONGLY AGREE, THOUGH SUBSTITUTE FURTHER UPSIDE FOR TURNAROUND

One interpretation is that The Great Pump-Up, which lasted over thirty years, is finished and the Age of De-Leverage is fast upon us.

Until the current administration shows a willingness to lead equities simply aren't a buy yet based on fundamentals based on information provided by John also.

STRONGLY AGREE AND NOW IT HAS BEEN OVER 40 YEARS AND IS FAR WORSE

[John]

> Millennials finally believe they got screwed by the system

> JEFFREY GUNDLACH: I think what's happening is, at long last, the
> millennials are starting to hate the baby boomers. I mean, that's
> starting to pull pretty strongly, and it's about time.

> I mean, the policies of the United States have been so bad for so
> long.

> https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jeffrey- ... 59614.html

Lol!! The Gen-Xers have hated boomers a lot longer than recently.
The vitriolic hatred by Gen-Xers of their parents has been the
disaster of the age, and the credulous Millennials have followed along
with the Gen-Xers like little lambs being led to slaughter.

[Higgenbotham]

Lol!! The Gen-Xers have hated boomers a lot longer than recently.
The vitriolic hatred by Gen-Xers of their parents has been the
disaster of the age, and the credulous Millennials have followed along
with the Gen-Xers like little lambs being led to slaughter.

A few years ago, there was some discussion here about the pace picking up toward the crisis. This year, the pace seems to be picking up: politically, socially, and economically. I think this could finally be the year the crisis hits with full force. In my opinion, when it does, it will start with a massive generational stock market crash.

[John]

> A few years ago, there was some discussion here about the pace
> picking up toward the crisis. This year, the pace seems to be
> picking up: politically, socially, and economically. I think this
> could finally be the year the crisis hits with full force. In my
> opinion, when it does, it will start with a massive generational
> stock market crash.

You know, I'd agree with you completely if there weren't so many other
possibilities. The major crisis du jour is that there was a
big gunfight today between Indian police and separatist militants in
Kashmir today. This could be the long, hot summer when Kashmir really
blows up into war between India and Pakistan. Of course, maybe just
the threat of that war could trigger the massive generational stock
market crash, in which case you'd be right.