Financial topics

[aedens]

tide has turned not the plumbing g

http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2 ... 585126.htm

a from the grain colony

[aedens]

aedens --- an excellent example of " we can't call a spade a spade" and why not doing so causes such difficulties.

Later in the interview, Stewart asked Miller if she had been "manipulated."

"All journalists are manipulated and all politicians lie," she replied. http://www.etymonline.com/index.php?ter ... in_frame=0

http://seekingalpha.com/etf_hub#

They behave and speak like programmed robots that can be wound up and sent in to a town to wreak havoc. A true outrage would not vandalize the very people on whose behalf one is demonstrating. These people know nothing and think nothing and have no moral boundaries. at

In that day you will be like a man who runs from a lion--only to meet a bear. Escaping from the bear, he leans his hand against a wall in his house--and he's bitten by a snake. Amos 5:19

[aedens]

http://worldnewsdailyreport.com/two-cia ... f-cocaine/

DECADES

[aedens]

Triple exponential smoothing takes into account seasonal changes as well as trends.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-0 ... ged-bubble

They eat any one.

[John]

> Triple exponential smoothing takes into account seasonal changes
> as well as trends.

> http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-05-0 ... ged-bubble

> They eat any one.

According to the article, Grantham says that the crash will occur at
S&P 2250. Since the S&P is currently at 2100, this means that
the crash could occur after a 7% increase.

I don't believe that it's possible to make such a specific prediction.
You can say that the stock market is in a bubble, but the exact time a
crash will occur depends on a triggering event and the public mood,
and these are not easily predicted.

Nonetheless, I use a much simpler methodology for looking at this and
I wanted to see how it compares.

One way is to look at the S&P 500 P/E index which is now very close to
21.



In the recent past it's been around 18, which means that the bubble
really is expanding rapidly. (As you all know, the historical P/E is
14, and it's expected to fall to the 5-6 range after the crash,
bringing the DJIA down to the 3000 level.)

The other way is to do a very simple exponential growth curve fitting
to the DJIA, which I plot on the following page:

** DJIA Historical Page
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... i.djia.htm

On that page, the important value is the "% of trend" column. That
number should be around 100%, meaning that the DJIA is at its
historical trend value. Below 100%, and stocks are underpriced; above
100%, and they're overpriced; significantly above 100%, stocks are in
a bubble.

So we can look at the "% of trend" value at various times:

03-Sep-1929 255% [Peak of 1929 bubble]
08-Jul-1933 24% [Trough of Great Depression]
11-Feb-1966 125% [Post-Depression peak until the 1990s]
10-Aug-1982 46% [End of long decline that began in 1966]
25-Aug-1987 128% [False panic of 1987 - 58 yrs after 1929]
14-Jan-2000 314% [peak of 2000 tech bubble]
09-Oct-2007 267% [peak of 2007 credit/real estate bubble]
30-Apr-2015 238% [current]

If increase the current value by 7%, which is the amount that Grantham
is predicting, we get 255%, which is the value at the peak of the 1929
bubble. (Perhaps that's how Grantham got his value, probably arriving
at it by a much more circuitous route, to justify his 7-digit salary.)

So I would agree that the crash could occur when the trend value
is AROUND 255%, but we can see that it went higher in 2007, and
much higher in 2000. The exactly timing will probably be affected
by an exogenous event, and that could happen before or after the
trend value reaches 255%.

By the way, the DJIA is currently around 18000, so a 7% increase would
bring it to 19260.

Another by the way: I read a column by a "respected analyst" today who
says that stock values "normally" increase by 7-8% a year. This is a
lie. Historically, the increase is 4.5% a year, including inflation.

[John]

Actually, I have to add something to the above.

What happened in 1929 was not a stock market crash. What happened was
a stock market panic. The crash occurred from 1929 to 1933.

So what we're looking for is the date of the next panic, which will
signal the beginning of a crash that may take a while.

[aedens]

I agree with the direction seen on that.
As we noted they are building 105 and closing 5 here. The period mentality relays back to circa 1993 as we covered it here.
The cratering effect and tranhumanism is biting ever hard and deeper. http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 601#p27592
Even the glassy eyed are seeing it now.

The view will adapt to fill the cracks seen develpoing. The specialist are sent in to control the scope of the discussions.
Rational expectations and modeling will suffice to negate sharper qeustions some suppose. Hume covered that anyways.

As for the local dimmcrat rhetoric surfacing again on sticky wages as it was noted.

Their pitch: "$12 by '20" — a $12 per hour federal minimum wage by 2020, which they say will give a pay raise to nearly 38 million Americans.

The current score is -5 to + 105 for one sector movement alone. At this point in my journey they leave no doubt they are rather insane.

We noted the Fabien eugenics of Internecine Slaughter, not civil war so it is no different than the socialist meme covered.

The seal between the ears will remain.

The word "polemos" appears at least 16 times in the New Testament, and in each case, it refers to physical conflict, not a spiritual one as Paul refers to here:
"For we are not fighting against flesh-and-blood enemies, but against evil rulers and authorities of the unseen world, against mighty powers in this dark world, and against evil spirits in the heavenly places." Ephesians 6:12
When Paul speaks of the spiritual struggle, he uses the word "pale." According to Strong's Concordance, "pale" means: "wrestling"
Clearly, the Bible differentiates between our everyday spiritual struggle with the forces of darkness and literal phsyical conflict in the form of war.

Point is they stuff the cracks with good people who wander and will seek as it was said, and we know the condition they will linger in. Famine.

https://newworldorderg20.wordpress.com/ ... s-sollers/
http://www.thenewamerican.com/usnews/fo ... orld-order

The will negate the fiat p/e until they decide you have to much free cash flow. Remember Morgan was never a controlling interest
last time it was decided to cartelization efforts on the animal farm reported panics.

[gerald]

From the twilight zone --- or maybe not.

Question - What percentage of decision makes in "finance" ( hedge funds, banks, governments, major market players, etc.) are "up in age" and have minor medical issues? --- What were to happen if all of a sudden a fair number of them died or became incapacitated at the same time? Would their underlings have the knowledge , connections, experience, etc. to make proper decisions and prevent a global financial catastrophe if at the same time there was a temporary problem with communications? hmmm Is this possible?
--------------------------
"It has long been established that magnetic storms not only affect the performance of equipment, upset radio communications, blackout radars, and disrupt radio navigation systems but also endanger living organisms. They change the blood flow, especially in capillaries, affect blood pressure, and boost adrenalin.
The young and fit couldn't care less, but those who are older, may develop problems."

"Medical statistics for Moscow show that 70% of all micro variations, caused by geomagnetic disturbances, are accompanied by an abnormally high incidence of heart attacks (a growth of about 13%), and blood-strokes (7.5% growth). The low and extremely low frequency electromagnetic fields destabilize the heartbeat, leading to a sudden death or infarction. Medical experts have finally explained why heart attacks take a heavy toll before a magnetic storm - because micro variations begin 24 hours before the storm."

http://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Magne ... tions.html

-----------------------------

Side note, My daughter, who works in IT and tunes in to "suspicious observer" http://www.suspicious0bservers.org/ on a daily basis, made an interesting comment a while back. At a recent meeting the normally at ease personal were in an agitated state she commented the Earth was experiencing a magnetic storm, they were a bit stunned to think that they were being affected by the Sun.

--- and what about the market? It would be interesting to know what the Sun was doing in 1929.
---------------------------------------------

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/full/1929Obs....52..365B ---Dec 1929 page 365

" A Brilliant Solar Eruption" Oct 28 - Nov 10

hmmmm

[aedens]

700cycledays.jpg (15.42 KiB) Viewed 11416 times

I had the same impression at times on effects which are geomagnetic
Even a basic Pareto chart confuses most.

Anyways, avarice consumes thoughts in realities. Cotteral mentioned numerous facts they cannot even fathom to day.
https://archive.org/stream/fourfrenchwo ... 9/mode/2up

As we touched before http://solarcycles.net/2012/09/07/solar-cycle-24-peak/

[aedens]

http://www.companiesandmarkets.com/News ... ity/NI9586

http://fortune.com/2015/02/02/doe-china ... r-reactor/

China and Canada Sign Agreement on Nuclear Fuel Development

Russia To Build Jordan’s First Nuclear Power Plant

http://www.theneworleansadvocate.com/ne ... t-john-the

tpp is already here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ExjJPvvTxw

a from the grain colony