Financial topics

[John]

Have you taken a relatively new and "sophisticated" car to the dealer for repairs recently? (Think about all of the sensors in a car today , lights, wipers, tire pressure, gps, etc. ) You ask them what is wrong , they don't know, they have to hook it up to a computer. In days gone by, I would take a car to a mechanic and he would listen to the car run and tell me what was wrong, like my dad did with pumps. ---either help is less sophisticated or the equipment is too complex to be easily under stood, I suspect both.

Sure, cars are sophisticated, but not twice as complicated than the Large Hadron Collider
or Microsoft Visual Studio 2012.

[Higgenbotham]

http://solarcycles.net/2014/01/17/timin ... ket-peaks/

http://solarcycles.net/2014/01/15/stock ... gs-update/

http://solarcycles.net/2014/01/13/us-eq ... t-at-hand/

http://solarcycles.net/2014/01/08/no-co ... no-growth/

In the first link he discusses whether the stock market may have peaked on December 31 or whether it will perhaps peak more like January 30. I favor the latter, maybe as late as early May, but who really knows.

The second link has a chart that shows call buying at a multi year extreme compared to puts. I had noticed this in 2010 and 2011 also and the extreme value did not put a high in on the stock market; it came later. I've added that comparison on his chart with the black lines.

15jan1.png (60.4 KiB) Viewed 3715 times

The chart of US net business investment shown in the last link resembles the trajectory of the Real final sales chart posted yesterday, as would be logical. Again, I've added the trendlines and projection.

8ja10.png (38.13 KiB) Viewed 3720 times

Quoting from the article at the last link, "The ratio of corporate investment to investor-payout is now historically low. Companies in Europe, Japan and the US have remained fearful of investment in plant, equipment and technology due to economic uncertainty, particularly new tech and R&D which requires high funding without any certain return. Hence they prefer to sit on cash piles, and keep investors happy with buybacks. In the short term, this shores up their position, but it is at the expense of their future, and, aggregated across all companies, the economy’s future. Without investment, future growth and future jobs are severely compromised."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article44022.html

"TGR: As the 20-to-46-year-olds move into jobs left by Baby Boomers, will there be a corresponding increase in spending on their part?

HD: Yes, over time. Young people start at lower incomes, so it takes a while for them to amass financial momentum. In between generation peaks, like 1929 for the Henry Ford generation, 1968 for the Bob Hope generation and now 2007 for the Baby Boomers, there's a gap when the younger generation is not earning enough to offset the decline of the older generation. Eventually, they get strong enough and generate the next boom. That next boom is from around 2023 to 2036 or so for the first wave of the Echo Boom.

TGR: I read that the next generation will reach its peak buying years in the 2020s.

HD: I'd say their trend will turn up about 2023."

"HD: Governments have no way out. They're checkmated. Individuals can protect themselves with several strategies. First, businesses and individuals can get more defensive now. They can get into safe investments and let the next bubble crash. Our target for the Dow is near 17,000 on the upside, 5,000–6,000 on the downside. Let it go higher, then go lower, then reinvest."

[gerald]

Have you taken a relatively new and "sophisticated" car to the dealer for repairs recently? (Think about all of the sensors in a car today , lights, wipers, tire pressure, gps, etc. ) You ask them what is wrong , they don't know, they have to hook it up to a computer. In days gone by, I would take a car to a mechanic and he would listen to the car run and tell me what was wrong, like my dad did with pumps. ---either help is less sophisticated or the equipment is too complex to be easily under stood, I suspect both.

Sure, cars are sophisticated, but not twice as complicated than the Large Hadron Collider
or Microsoft Visual Studio 2012.

May be so, I recently rented a car in a foreign country made by GM, after being given a brief instruction on how to drive the car, such as how to start the engine ( no obvious ignition switch, and how not to get locked out of the car) I spent about ten minutes looking at the console (like a control panel for a space ship ) before driving the car. Having the instruction manual in the car does not always help, since it can be in a foreign language ( not only to me but also to the country I am in) driving can be interesting.

[aedens]

I favor the latter, maybe as late as early May

Your correct, but I will stick to march for now Higg since the syncretic and mentally deranged political landscape of "the market" has gelled into the numb and diluted it is. Dilute the base to maintain ascendancy politics and we seen this before in our area. The enclaves know how to ride the pony also so no reason on there on part to merge. Jizya is material proof of the non-Muslims' acceptance of subjection to the state and its laws so why change to the neo pagans self inflicted decadence and fatal deciets. Granted is the the thought of Governments sole role is a monopoly on violence to limit the damage of cultist who survive or infiltrate with syncresis movements. Constantine as all Governments forge compromise with the factions and today pillage the remaining base. Truth has nothing to do with intent. Eusebius covers this well and clear on the effects as many others. The current affairs in central Africa has nothing to do with thinking members of faith as does the genocidal Middle east so just another false narrative to level another appellative effect for the unwashed. Indeed the seal is in the forehead.

As we are to date Americans have shelled way over $1.6 billion in federal grants, loans, and “charitable” gifts to enclaved communities. I will try to find out more numbers but the fact remains we already have forumed those anyways to just our region as the mobilized voting base increases just as we warned years ago the costs will ensue since to be blunt they had no issue since NAFTA or before to denude wages and benefits. The Democrats leftists have just back filled the avarice of effect. They actually school bused the illegals in the late seventy's in our area for the meat packing plants. I knew a few years later the Lawyer who defended the owner who retired as the bank took over the books. In the ninetys the Feds used Nafta to stabilize the border issues it was said also to stabilize left leaning regions and to pillar of the southern front with the bludgeon for sticky wages locally, or for those inclined the big stick policy held behind there back and used as needed. Currently the Republicans are eating there seed base thus chasing the Democratic Rhetoric on political correctness goals we outlined clearly before as we collapse. It is a matter of public record that enclaves just will just wait for the check book and free cookies as they do in multiple regional districts. I agree point blank with the aspirations for the inclusive society. Not going to happen as we are since if you follow the money from taxpayers the reality points to another clear view. The FBI is aware and breaking up theft and syndicated enclaved crime networks as the political corrects and just plain naive miss the spirit of the age. On this I have to agree with Mr. Kerry they have the right to be stupid here. Any one who thinks this is a bias route or discriminatory as we noted are limited and related to the dust bin of history and the enclaves know stupid when they see it. I do not know given the shock value and no preface to and of morals they see in rampant stupidity why join the tribe of pagans who cannot even discern the signs of the times. Locally we are dealing with very limited resources and people whose oars are not reaching the water. They know the check book is open with fiat and we strive to keep it simple since there is not much of a choice. Currently the local Republitards are bitching about on big R family or the highway. The Dimmcrats must be salivating. We see only as Independents as Jindall and Paul and very few others as viable minds in a damaged Constitutional Republic. Vast amount of those defining tea party are rhinos or plainly compromised card carriers. I tried to read the main stream republican view this month and lasted one paragraph. From my point of view no accidents will apply to what I also seen from the sixties to these sociopaths and disconnected hacks.

http://www.charismanews.com/world/42415 ... -year-high

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/diversity

totalitarian political system masquerading as a religion
moderates understand confusion shelters corruption
just that simple all over

His name is Kelly Thomas.

[Higgenbotham]

January 20, 1893 (HIGH) to March 10, 1937 (high) = 16,119 days
March 10, 1937 (high) to March 31, 1938 (LOW) = 386 days
Total number of days from HIGH to LOW = 16,505

September 3, 1929 (HIGH) to October 29, 1973 (high) = 16,127 days
October 29, 1973 (high) to October 4, 1974 (LOW) = 340 days
October 29, 1973 (high) to December 9, 1974 (LOW) = 406 days
October 4 and December 9 was a double bottom.
Total number of days from HIGH to average LOW = 16,500

February 9, 1966 (HIGH) to April 26, 2010 (high) = 16,147 days
April 26, 2010 (high) to May 2, 2011 (HIGH) = 371 days
Total number of days from HIGH to HIGH = 16,518

December 3, 1968 (high) plus 16,500 to 16,518 days = February 5-23, 2014

This is a rehash of the 45 year cycle with the actual 2011 high filled in. Before the 2011 high I had speculated an important high or low might be seen, similar to the previous 45 year cycles. February 9, 1966 is commonly thought to be the end of the 1932 to 1966 bull market. After that, the market went sideways, hitting near 1,000 several times during the late 1960s and early 1970s: February 9, 1966 (995.15), December 3, 1968 (985.21), January 14, 1973 (1051.70), and October 29, 1973 (987.16) were the 4 highest Dow closing values at the 4 peaks. From the December 3, 1968 high, there was no comparable high near the 16,1XX day mark in early 2013 as the market melted up higher and higher. Therefore, I think it gets a little more difficult to project where a high might come in if the 45 year cycle holds from the 1968 high as it did from some of these other highs. In 2010 and 2011 there were some good reference points to use.

This cycle may have generational as well as planetary bases. The Saturn-Uranus opposition occurs every 45 years on average but there is a variance of a couple years around that. Some of the dates in this table of Saturn-Uranus oppositions hit close or on (in the case of April 26, 2010) some of the above dates.

http://www.astropro.com/features/tables ... 80UR6.html

Below, every opposition between the 1930s and the 2040s is copied out of the table.

| APR 01, 1965 | 09:11 AM | 180 | 11PI37 | 11VI37R |
| AUG 28, 1965 | 03:34 AM | 180 | 14PI33R | 14VI33 |
| FEB 24, 1966 | 01:32 PM | 180 | 18PI07 | 18VI07R |
| NOV 08, 1966 | 08:12 AM | 180 | 23PI12R | 23VI12 |
| JAN 06, 1967 | 10:51 PM | 180 | 24PI24 | 24VI24R |

| NOV 04, 2008 | 01:24 PM | 180 | 18VI58 | 18PI58R |
| FEB 05, 2009 | 11:11 AM | 180 | 20VI39R | 20PI39 |
| SEP 15, 2009 | 12:43 PM | 180 | 24VI43 | 24PI43R |
| APR 26, 2010 | 11:36 PM | 180 | 28VI46R | 28PI46 |
| JUL 26, 2010 | 04:59 PM | 180 | 00LI25 | 00AR25R |

The three important highs at 1893, 1929 and 1966 are 36 years apart, but 36 years from 1966 is the 2002 low. This may help to explain why 2011 then became a high.

Based on the 1960s cycles, a high may be hitting at the right time but it should be hitting at a price of more like 1220 or 1370 on the S&P 500 (the April 26, 2010 and May 2, 2011 highs).

[Higgenbotham]

Continuing with the 36 year cycle but presenting it in a different order than above

September 3, 1929 (HIGH) to March 31, 1938 (LOW) = 3131 days
February 9, 1966 (HIGH) to October 4, 1974 (LOW) = 3159 days
October 10, 2002 (low) to May 2, 2011 (HIGH) = 3126 days

where 1929, 1966 and 2002 are 36 years apart.


The October 4, 1974 and October 4, 2011 lows are 37 years apart. As was noted a couple weeks ago, the stock market rose from the 1974 low until late 1976, making a relative high on December 31, 1976, then fell all year in 1977. This might explain why the stock market attempted to make a high on December 31, 2013. I had some doubts that high would hold but it looked good for a brief time.

There's a confusing mix of data. The weekly chart below has some of the cycles and Lindsay counts drawn on it. The problem with taking a Lindsay count from October 4, 2011 is that there is a double bottom there too and that double bottom averages to September 6, 2011. Taking the count from September 6 would give March 6, 2014. This markes sense from the standpoint that March 6, 2014 is 5 years from the bear market low. The October 11, 2007 high was also 5 years from the October 10, 2002 bear market low.

March 6, 2014 represents a logical average of all this confusing data. There can probably be wider than normal variance for reasons mentioned (guessing "pig weight" without actually seeing the pig for example). January 30, 2014 and anything in February, as projected by the 45 year cycle, seems reasonable also.

WEEKLY.gif (54.95 KiB) Viewed 3682 times

[Higgenbotham]

Here are the smoothed solar maxima of the last 100 years:

Aug 1917 (+11y6m after the previous solar maximum)
Apr 1928 (+10y8m)
Apr 1937 (+11y)
May 1947 (+10y1m)
Mar 1958 (+10y8m)
Nov 1968 (+10y8m)
Dec 1979 (+11y1m)
Jul 1989 (+9y7m)
Mar 2000 (+10y9m)
Dec 2013 ? (+13y9m)

http://solarcycles.net/2014/01/20/red-f ... -research/

This might be worth noting relative to the 1929, 1937, 1968 and 2000 stock market peaks. He discusses some of the nuances. This peak is coming 13 years 9 months from the previous, whereas the average is 11 years 1 month. My tendency is to think the peaks matter but the averages do too, as the average of the previous peaks get encoded into future behavior. This would be because, for example, the demographics are set in earlier cycles and can't be changed. So here we have a justifiable short term mania based on some data, but it is very far from justifiable long term averages. This makes a huge crash seem very possible, even likely. There seem to be many ways that analysts are coming around to this conclusion. One link that I posted recently alludes to the idea that his proprietary cumulative indicator is at a record deviation and points to a 20% one day crash.
http://blog.markdcook.com/?p=667
"My (proprietary cumulative) indicator has the greatest divergence ever from where the current prices are trading..." and there is more at the link.

[Higgenbotham]

The cycle I have "on watch" is the 1293 day cycle.

The time between the Chernobyl accident (April 26, 1986) and the fall of the Berlin Wall (November 9, 1989) is 1293 days. The time between Hurricane Katrina (August 28, 2005) and the bottom of the stock market crash (March 6, 2009) is 1285 days. These events represented the results of a "loss of faith" in the government to properly respond to a crisis.

We are now witnessing a similar failure to respond in Japan. The Fukushima accident occurred on March 11, 2011. 1293 days from March 11, 2011 is September 24, 2014. I am "on watch" for a collapse of the Japanese government around that time period, which will likely in my opinion be the catalyst for the worldwide financial crisis.

This is very interesting. To me it looks like Japan has done everything they could to get hyperinflation and I am surprised it is taking so long. Maybe it will take till Sept.

I've been mulling over what this might mean. Chernobyl led to the fall of the Berlin Wall which led to the European Union. 1290 days might represent an average length of time that it takes to create a result of disillusionment, which then leads to other things. It doesn't seem that it would lead to an "Asian Union" in the future unless it happens by force. I'm thinking that as Japan weakens and collapses, China is going to start seizing more territory by force, more than Pagasa Island. The idea that China will seize all of the islands one by one, then more territory after that, seems reasonable.

China threatens military seizure of South China Sea island from Philippines

A Chinese media article published over the weekend says that China is preparing for a military invasion of the second-largest of the Spratly Islands. Pagasa Island is administered by the Philippines. China calls it the Zhongye Island, and claims it, along with vast areas of the South China Sea, including regions that that have historically belonged to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia and the Philippines, and has threatened to use its vast military power to threaten and subdue any neighboring nation that disobeys its orders. This comes just a few days after China escalated tensions by demanding that any foreign fishing vessel ask permission from China's military before fishing in the South China Sea.

Pagasa Island is designated a town in the Philippines with a civilian population of nearly 200, and an airstrip with 50 soldiers. In March 2011, the Philippine military announced plans to upgrade the airfield.

According to a translated summary of the Chinese media report:

"Relying on US support, the Philippines is so arrogant as to announce in the New Year that it will increase its navy and air force deployment at Zhongye Island, a Chinese island that it has illegally occupied for years. It will be an intolerable insult to China.

According to experts, the Chinese navy has drawn a detailed combat plan to seize the island and the battle will be restricted within the South China Sea. The battle is aimed at recovery of the island stolen by the Philippines from China. There will be no invasion into Filipino territories.

A report in the Philippines Star confirmed the Philippines military buildup on the island."

The article said that the attack will occur in 2014. This would be the second such military seizure by China. In 2012, China used threat of military force to seize the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines.

Some analysts are speculating that China's new military policy will be to seize all the islands in the South China Sea, one by one, counting on the fact that no single military act would force a response by the United States. China Daily Mail and Philippine Star

I suppose as this happens, at least at first, Americans will continue to entertain themselves with financial bubbles and such, until they realize one day that they are in deep trouble.

[Higgenbotham]

Your correct Higg the syncretic and mentally deranged political landscape in the market has gelled into the numb diluted movement it is.

You called it correctly. My thought was the source of the funds is different from 1929 or 2000, which were real bubbles. This one is raising the corpse of a dead bubble. So if we get more movement into the top it might have to go slower and steadier, though I always want to be aware and open to the possibility. Tonight the futures are up 7 and 3 points from the all time high. They get more bang for the buck at night as I realize you know, but stating for the benefit of passers by. But my thesis all along has been that if they did raise the corpse of a dead bubble it would fall back down in a systemic collapse, and it if wasn't economic it would be political or social and spread back into the economics, and that didn't happen.

[aedens]

I think the smart already knows when gold hit $1400.00 to sell more than some shiny stuff.
The shock will be faction windows some consider and you have to admit the American herd is lacking
a compass to date. Other maniacs could care less in zones. We already know the usual suspects as they foster half truth and cling
to internalized predation to foster a pointless narrative on even kill switches we seen upfront and early.
Already we pointed out take over twenty percent off P/E and watch DCF to energy margin cluster groups.
Capex is ongoing to NDT testing groups who understand actual culture change mechanisms.
The rest is pointless social babble. Locally a family is suing people who stepped over there dead Son on film
and considerable time passed until one called the authorities. People are insular and brain dead not including enclaves of intent.
I considered some views by July and the labor replacement bill things will collapse and the Dimmcrats
will see what we already know.

It’s not our job to make sure the Republicans get elected at just any cost. As we noted correctly already it mirrors the Denkform of the simple minded politicos.

I do not know any democrats or republicans. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tYwyjwFg-Zg

What you see in Rose-Garden photo ops is a virtual-reality amalgam crafted by five pollsters, three speech-writers, several calculating back-room political strategists, an ad agency, a make-up artist and a gestures coach. The actual president is incidental. In fact, he is actually viewed as an impediment by his handlers.
Fred Reed at fredoneverything.net

In 1974, Time Magazine blamed the cold polar vortex on global cooling. Forty years later, Time Magazine blames the cold polar vortex on global warming. At least the 1974 version made sense.
Steven Goddard at stevengoddard.wordpress.com

---------> 2009 http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 3094#p3094 summation - You cannot cheat a honest man. The other point missed was if you poke the
life raft now we will fix it, and they will eat you since the shore was not in site yet. Taxpayers deserve what they get and more......
I will look my early kill switch observation notes for the more who can go and piss up a rope.

----- When is every one exhausted is the debate I guess to when larger issues come to play. -----

Back to today "security Expert Hacks Obamacare Website In 4 Minutes; Accesses 70,000 Records" t/y t

His name is Kelly Thomas .