John wrote:My mind is a total blank. I can't get excited about writing about
anything. I've covered the Iran situation. There are new suicide
bombings in Pakistan, but I have nothing new to say. The financial
crisis is deepening, but on the surface everything looks great. The
world is drifting along in a "steady state," waiting for something to
happen. Well, maybe someone on the Sunday news shows in the morning
will inspire me.
I hope everyone out there is enjoying a nice weekend!
wvbill wrote:> Could be the "Calm before the storm."
Julle wrote:> I have enjoyed reading your blog for a while now.
> If you need some inspiration, why not go to the movies?. The new
> Star Trek movie and Transformers 2 are very interesting from a
> generational perspective.
> Here´s why.
> The main characters are millennials
> The hero in Transformers, Sam, is technologically savvy and works
> well with grown-ups. The same is true of Kirk and Spock in Star
> Trek. They accept adult authority and instruction without
> They live in a crisis era
> Sam has to team up with the good autobots in order to stop the
> decepticons from destroying the Earth. Kirk and Spock have to face
> a madman who wants to blow up their home planets.
> The main characters have to fulfill their destinies and become
> Rather than doing their own thing or arguing like xers or boomers
> they have to fight for the greater good. In other words, they are
> team players like millennials. Both movies also portray the armed
> forces in a positive manner.
> The movies are light-hearted
> Even though there is a lot of destruction and action both movies
> are very funny and entertaining. I remember that you wrote earlier
> this year about the fact that this kind of entertainment is very
> popular in a crisis era.
> Star Trek and Transformers are written by the same duo: Alex
> Kurtzman and Roberto Orci who are x:ers. They seem to be familiar
> with millennials since they mainly write summer blockbusters for
> teens and people in their twenties. The directors Michael Bay and
> JJ Abrams are also x:ers that are very popular among younger
Jack Edwards wrote:> I greatly enjoy your website and have for months, along with your
> e-books. Like many people, I usually read opinions and articles
> that tend to affirm things that I already believed. You’re
> articles have caused me to look at things completely differently –
> and often as not – disagree with pundits I used to agree with.
> Thanks for opening my eyes to a different perspective.
> If you’re wondering what to write about, here are some thoughts:
> Further explain a statement in one of your articles
> “In a Crisis era, like Iran in 1979 and in the 1980s, civic unity
> is regenerated, and political bickering decreases and tapers off.
> In an Awakening era, like Iran today, civic unity deteriorates,
> and political bickering increases.”
> Is the United States in a Crisis era yet – or just quickly
> approaching one? It doesn’t seem to me that civic unity is being
> regenerated right now and political bickering is as bad or worse
> than it’s been in a while.
> Does civic unity regenerate because the society recognizes that if
> it doesn’t put aside its differences and come together that the
> whole society can fall apart?
Jack Edwards wrote:> What causes the political bickering to taper off? I imagine the
> same political leanings are still there, do the opposing sides
> just agree to disagree?
Strauss and Howe wrote:> Every Fourth Turning starts with a catalyst event that
> terminates the mood of Unraveling and unleashes one of Crisis.
> Chapter 4 explained how sparks of history -- sudden and startling
> events -- can arise in any turning. Some sparks ignite nothing.
> Some flare briefly and then extinguish. Some have important
> effects but leave the underlying problems unresolved. Others
> ignite epic conflagrations. Which ones ignite? Studying the
> sparks of history themselves won't help answer this
> question, because what they are is far less important than how a
> society reacts to them. That reaction is substantially determined
> by the season of the saeculum -- in other words, by the turning in
> which they are located. Sparks in a High tend to reinforce
> feelings of security; in an Awakening, argument; in an Unraveling,
> anxiety. Come the Fourth Turning, sparks of history trigger a
> fierce new dynamic of public synergy.
> The catalyst can be one spark or, more commonly, a series of
> sparks that self-ignite like the firecrackers traditionally used
> by the Chinese to mark their own breaks in the circle of time.
> Each of these sparks is linked to a specific threat about which
> the society had been fully informed but against which it had left
> itself poorly protected. Afterward, the fact that these sparks
> were foreseeable but poorly foreseen gives rise to a
> new sense of urgency about institutional dysfunction and civic
> vulnerablity. This marks the beginning of the vertiginous spiral
> of Crisis.
> Once this new mood is fully catalyzed, a society begins a process
> of regeneracy, a drawing together into whatever definition
> of community is available at the time. Out of the debris of the
> Unraveling, a new civic ethos arises. One set of post-Awakening
> ideals prevails over the others. People stop tolerating the
> weakening of institutions, splintering of the culture, and the
> individualizing of daily behavior. Spiritual curiosity abates,
> manners traditionalize, and the culture is harnessed as
> propanganda for the purpose of overtly reinforcing good conduct.
> History teaches that, roughly one to three years after the initial
> catalyst, people begin acknowledging this new synergy in community
> life and begin deputizing government to enforce it. Collective
> action is now seen as vital to solving the society's most
> fundamental problems.
Jack Edwards wrote:> Bills being rushed through
> It seems like we’re having a flurry of activity in Congress and
> the Senate right now, from TARP, Stimulus, Cap and Trade, Health
> Care. It happened at the end of Bush’s tenure and the Obama
> administration. It seems incredible to me that bills with this
> amount of influence and cost are being rushed through with out any
> time to actually read and digest what’s in them.
> Is this in any way related to the present Crisis era we’re
> entering? Is this generational in anyway? Has it always been like
> this? Or is this something new?
Jack Edwards wrote:> Honduras
> Do coups happen more often during certain eras? Since coups are
> militarily driven, do they have anything to do with generational
Jack Edwards wrote:> Natural Disasters
> Can having a really large natural disaster (like a Tsunami that
> kills 200,000 people) take the place of a crisis war or financial
> collapse in changing a generational era?
Jack Edwards wrote:> The role of age distribution of young men and a nation’s
> propensity to go to war
> It would seem to me that nations that have excess young males or a
> high concentration of young men (like the Palestinians) have a
> higher propensity to go to war than those populations with few
> young men. Before finding your site, I had always assumed that war
> with Russia simply wouldn’t happen because they lacked enough
> young men to really support a large war. It also seems to me that
> mothers with only one male child would be extremely anti-war. But
> does it really work that way or are my musings off-base?
Jack Edwards wrote:> The importance of individual rights and group rights through
> different eras
> It seems that I read somewhere on this site that during crisis
> periods the rights of groups take precedence over the rights of
> individuals and that as we move away from crisis periods that the
> rights of individuals take more and more precedence. I’ve gone
> back and looked, but haven’t found where that was stated – am I
> remembering this concept incorrectly? If this is correct, what
> kind of individual rights will be sacrificed during the upcoming
> crisis period.
Jack Edwards wrote:> Just go to a movie
> Julles recommendation above is probably the best though. We’re
> just in a temporary lull right now. Sure as anything in a short
> period of time there will be too much to write about and little of
> it good. Take the quiet time to enjoy some scenery or do a
> favorite activity of some kind.
> Thanks for all you do John,
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