What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Awakening eras, crisis eras, crisis wars, generational financial crashes, as applied to historical and current events
Alosito79
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Joined: Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:48 pm

What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Postby Alosito79 » Wed Mar 20, 2019 1:58 pm

This topic discusses if a crisis ir Fourth Turning ends badly and what would happen to all the generations including Millennials and Homelanders should it go the wrong way.
As well as if there have been bad and negative outcomes of Fourth Turnings in history?

Civil War? The Black Plague in Europe? Demise of Yugoslavia?

Your thoughts?

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Postby John » Wed Mar 20, 2019 6:51 pm

Alosito79 wrote:> This topic discusses if a crisis ir Fourth Turning ends badly and
> what would happen to all the generations including Millennials and
> Homelanders should it go the wrong way. As well as if there have
> been bad and negative outcomes of Fourth Turnings in history?

> Civil War? The Black Plague in Europe? Demise of Yugoslavia?

> Your thoughts?


Well, we're headed for WW III. I've estimated that 3-4 billion people
will die in the war, from nuclear weapons, conventional weapons,
ground war, riots, disease and famine, leaving behind 4 billion people
to hold an international peace conference and rebuild the world. I
don't know whether you view that as ending badly or well.

Alosito79
Posts: 37
Joined: Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:48 pm

Re: What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Postby Alosito79 » Thu Mar 21, 2019 1:22 pm

John wrote:
Alosito79 wrote:> This topic discusses if a crisis ir Fourth Turning ends badly and
> what would happen to all the generations including Millennials and
> Homelanders should it go the wrong way. As well as if there have
> been bad and negative outcomes of Fourth Turnings in history?

> Civil War? The Black Plague in Europe? Demise of Yugoslavia?

> Your thoughts?


Well, we're headed for WW III. I've estimated that 3-4 billion people
will die in the war, from nuclear weapons, conventional weapons,
ground war, riots, disease and famine, leaving behind 4 billion people
to hold an international peace conference and rebuild the world. I
don't know whether you view that as ending badly or well.


That seems to be like a real catastrophic crisis. So we could have a Civil War Anamoly in which the foor soldiers become Artist because they’ll be disinterested after WWIII.

falopex
Posts: 32
Joined: Sat Jan 14, 2012 11:06 pm
Location: Colorado

Re: What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Postby falopex » Mon Apr 29, 2019 10:11 pm

Historically, things tend to go very poorly for societies that end up on the losing end of a Crisis War. For a taste of what has happened before, read up on what life was like in Germany in the generation after Hitler died, or Japan after Hiroshima and Nagasaki, or in the South after the US Civil War. It is not pretty.

As for Civil War being a *consequence* of losing a Crisis War; I don't see it happening. A society that is in a Crisis Era/Fourth Turning may experience International War, Civil War, or both at the same time. But the Turning ends for that society when all the Crisis Wars that began for them during the Crisis Era have climaxed and burned themselves out. After that, the survivors no longer have a thirst for war, and the society enters an Austerity Era. Peace at any cost becomes the new mantra. As the losers, the population will be too beat down and impoverished to keep on fighting.

But ... during an Austerity Era, the losers can easily form new grudges against the winners. Those grudges will get passed down through the culture until they re-emerge in a new form just in time for the next Crisis Era.

I personally also have a hypothesis, unproven, that if a society in a Crisis Era is fighting an International War and a Civil War at the same time, the Civil War will usually tend to be resolved first, as the society becomes desperate to survive the larger International War.
Ray Henry (falopex)

John
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Joined: Sat Sep 20, 2008 12:10 pm
Location: Cambridge, MA USA
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Re: What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Postby John » Tue Apr 30, 2019 10:02 am

** 30-Apr-2019 International War vs Civil War

falopex wrote:> Historically, things tend to go very poorly for societies that end
> up on the losing end of a Crisis War. For a taste of what has
> happened before, read up on what life was like in Germany in the
> generation after Hitler died, or Japan after Hiroshima and
> Nagasaki, or in the South after the US Civil War. It is not
> pretty.

> As for Civil War being a *consequence* of losing a Crisis War; I
> don't see it happening. A society that is in a Crisis Era/Fourth
> Turning may experience International War, Civil War, or both at
> the same time. But the Turning ends for that society when all the
> Crisis Wars that began for them during the Crisis Era have
> climaxed and burned themselves out. After that, the survivors no
> longer have a thirst for war, and the society enters an Austerity
> Era. Peace at any cost becomes the new mantra. As the losers, the
> population will be too beat down and impoverished to keep on
> fighting.

> But ... during an Austerity Era, the losers can easily form new
> grudges against the winners. Those grudges will get passed down
> through the culture until they re-emerge in a new form just in
> time for the next Crisis Era.

> I personally also have a hypothesis, unproven, that if a society
> in a Crisis Era is fighting an International War and a Civil War
> at the same time, the Civil War will usually tend to be resolved
> first, as the society becomes desperate to survive the larger
> International War. Ray Henry (falopex)


In China in the 1930s, there was a civil war going on between the
Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-Shek, and the Communists, led by Mao
Zedong. Once Japan invaded and World War II began, the civil war was
paused and a "United Front" was formed to fight the Japanese.
Actually, the Communists took advantage of the situation by allowing
the Nationalists to fight the Japanese alone, so they would be
weakened. Once Japan was defeated, the civil war resumed and the
Communists won.

Alosito79
Posts: 37
Joined: Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:48 pm

Re: What happens if a Crisis or Fourth Turning ends poorly?

Postby Alosito79 » Tue Apr 30, 2019 11:31 pm

John wrote:** 30-Apr-2019 International War vs Civil War

falopex wrote:> Historically, things tend to go very poorly for societies that end
> up on the losing end of a Crisis War. For a taste of what has
> happened before, read up on what life was like in Germany in the
> generation after Hitler died, or Japan after Hiroshima and
> Nagasaki, or in the South after the US Civil War. It is not
> pretty.

> As for Civil War being a *consequence* of losing a Crisis War; I
> don't see it happening. A society that is in a Crisis Era/Fourth
> Turning may experience International War, Civil War, or both at
> the same time. But the Turning ends for that society when all the
> Crisis Wars that began for them during the Crisis Era have
> climaxed and burned themselves out. After that, the survivors no
> longer have a thirst for war, and the society enters an Austerity
> Era. Peace at any cost becomes the new mantra. As the losers, the
> population will be too beat down and impoverished to keep on
> fighting.

> But ... during an Austerity Era, the losers can easily form new
> grudges against the winners. Those grudges will get passed down
> through the culture until they re-emerge in a new form just in
> time for the next Crisis Era.

> I personally also have a hypothesis, unproven, that if a society
> in a Crisis Era is fighting an International War and a Civil War
> at the same time, the Civil War will usually tend to be resolved
> first, as the society becomes desperate to survive the larger
> International War. Ray Henry (falopex)


In China in the 1930s, there was a civil war going on between the
Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-Shek, and the Communists, led by Mao
Zedong. Once Japan invaded and World War II began, the civil war was
paused and a "United Front" was formed to fight the Japanese.
Actually, the Communists took advantage of the situation by allowing
the Nationalists to fight the Japanese alone, so they would be
weakened. Once Japan was defeated, the civil war resumed and the
Communists won.


Depending on point of view was the crisis end badly or a mixture for China?


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