What's taking the Regeneracy so long?

[Tom Mazanec]

Judging by previous Fourth Turnings, we should have reached a Regeneracy a decade ago.
Why is this 4T so different?

[John]

> Judging by previous Fourth Turnings, we should have reached a
> Regeneracy a decade ago. Why is this 4T so different?

Actually, that's not true. The Civil War began in 1860, 78 years
passed the climax of the Revolutionary War in 1782. Today we're
only 70 years passed the climax of WW II in 1945.

Here's a table of inter-crisis periods that I first posted over ten
years ago. It shows the number of years past the end of the previous
crisis war that the new crisis war starts, and it's based on an
analysis of crisis war dates that I did in 2002, when I was trying to
figure out if generational theory had any validity at all:

Code: Select all

.
>   LENGTH OF INTER-CRISIS PERIOD
>            Fraction
>   # years  of total  Turning
>   -------  --------  ------------------
>     0- 40      0%    1T, 2T
>    41- 49     11%    first half of 3T
>    50- 59     33%    second half of 3T
>    60- 69     25%    first half of 4T
>    70- 79     16%    second half of 4T
>    80- 89      4%    fifth turning
>    90- 99      6%
>   100-117      5%

[/b]

As this table shows, an inter-crisis period of 70-79 years occurs 16%
of the time, and a longer period occurs 15% (=4%+6%+5%) of the time.