Peter Turchin and "Secular Cycles"

Awakening eras, crisis eras, crisis wars, generational financial crashes, as applied to historical and current events
Post Reply
Nathan G
Posts: 127
Joined: Sat May 17, 2014 7:03 pm

Peter Turchin and "Secular Cycles"

Post by Nathan G »

Peter Turchin, a founding father of mathematical history, developed a theory theory sometime ago about the rise and fall of political institutions. His theory was that a state lasts for a certain period of time (2-3 centuries) before collapsing into civil war, out of which arises the next state. This cycle has two phases and four subphases: an integrative phase (subdivided into expansion and stagflation) and a disintegrative phase (subdivided into crisis and depression). The reason this is the case has to do with population growth and Malthusian economics. By comparing Turchin's chronology with Xenakis's crisis lists, I discovered an interesting coloration: The cycle usually lasts three or four saeculums: one or two saeculums for expansion, one for stagflation, and one for both crisis and depression (the crisis phase usually corresponds to the crisis era of that saeculum, with depression lasting the rest of the time). Turchin admits, interestingly, that within each phase there may be multiple "father-and-son" cycles switching from peace to instability (aka, the actual generation cycle). Studying this theory could shed light on larger patterns spanning multiple saeculums.

The Secular Cycles of Peter Turchin:

England:
Plantagenet cycle:
Integrative phase: 1150-1315 (from the Anarchy (1135-1154) to the Hundred Years' War (1338-1346); according to John, this spans the crises of King John's war (1204-1215) and the Baron's war (1276-1284))
Disintegrative phase: 1315-1485 (from the Hundred Years' War (1338-1346) to the War of the Roses (1455-1485); according to John, this is exactly one saeculum)

Tudor-Stuart cycle:
Integrative phase: 1485-1640 (from the War of the Roses (1455-1485) to the English Civil War (1638-1650); according to John, this spans the crisis of the Spanish Armada (1559-1588))
Disintegrative phase: 1640-1730 (from the English Civil War (1638-1650) to the War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714); according to John, this is exactly one saeculum)

France:
Ottonian-Salian cycle:
Integrative phase: 920-1050 AD (Until the Norman Conquest (1064-1066), John has not traced the saeculums of this period)
Disintegrative phase: 1050-1150 (from the Norman Conquest (1064-1066) to the war of Louis VI (1124-1135); according to John, this is exactly one saeculum)

Capetian cycle:
Integrative phase: 1150-1315 (from the war of Louis VI (1124-1135) to the Hundred Years' War (1338-1346); according to John, this spans the crises of the Third Crusade (1182-1204) and the Last Crusade (1270-1285))
Disintegrative phase: 1315-1450 (from the beginning of the Hundred Years' War (1338-1346) to the end of the Hundred Years' War (1415-1430); according to John, this is exactly one saeculum)

Valois cycle:
Integrative phase: 1450-1560 (from the Hundred Years' War (1415-1430) to the Wars of Religion (1562-1572); according to John, this spans the crisis of the Unification of France (1475-1480))
Disintegrative phase: 1560-1660 (from the Wars of Religion (1562-1572) to the Thirty Years' War (1635-1648); according to John, this is exactly one saeculum)

Bourbon cycle:
Integrative phase: 1660-1780 (from the Thirty Years' War (1635-1648) to the French Revolution (1789-1814); according to John, this spans the crisis of the War of the Spanish Succession (1701-1714))
Disintegrative phase: 1780-1870 (from the French Revolution (1789-1814) to the Franco-Prussian War (1865-1870); according to John, this is exactly one saeculum)

Ancient Rome:
Republican cycle:
Integrative phase: 350-130 BC (including the crises of the Second Punic War (218-201 BC) and the Third Punic War (149-146 BC))
Disintegrative phase: (from the Social Wars (91-82 BC) to the Ptolemaic War (36-30 BC); according to John, this is exactly one saeculum)

Principate cycle:
Integrative phase: 30 BC-165 AD (from the Ptolemaic War (36-30 BC) to the Parthian War (113-117 AD); according to John, this spans the crisis of the Year of Four Emperors (63-71 AD))
Disintegrative phase: 165-285 AD (from the Parthian War (113-117 AD) to the War of the Tetrarchs (324-337 AD); according to John, this spans the crisis of the Severan Wars (193-211 AD))

Dominate cycle:
Integrative phase: 285-540 AD (from the War of the Tetrarchs (324-337 AD) to the Invasion of Byzantium (527-530 AD); according to John, this spans the crisis of the Sack of Rome (406-410 AD))
Disintegrative phase: 540-700 AD (after the Invasion of Byzantium (527-530 AD), John has not traced the saeculums of this period)

Russia:
Vievan cycle:
Integrative phase: 1240-1360 (from the Mongol Invasion (1220-1250) to the defeat of the Tartars (1360-1380), although John has not officially traced the saeculums of this period)
Disintegrative phase: 1360-1460 (from the defeat of the Tartars (1360-1380) to the Annexation of Novgorod (1462-1485); according to John, this is exactly one saeculum)

Muscovy cycle:
Integrative phase: 1460-1565 (from the Annexation of Novgorod (1462-1485) to the Livonian War (1557-1582); according to John, this this is exactly one saeculum)
Disintegrative phase: 1565-1620 (from the Livonian War (1557-1582) to the Peasant Rebellion (1649-1670); according to John, this is exactly one saeculum)

Romanov cycle:
Integrative phase: 1620-1905 (from the Peasant Rebellion (1649-1670) to the Crimean War (1853-1861); according to John, this spans the crisis of the Ottoman War (1762-1783))
Disintegrative phase: 1905-1922 (from the Crimean War (1853-1861) to the Bolshevik Revolution (1915-1928); according to John, this is exactly one saeculum)

Ottoman Empire:
Early cycle:
Integrative phase: 1400-1590 (from the beginning of the sultanate to the War with Hapsburgs (1593-1606); according to John, this spans the crises of the fall of Constantinople (1453) and the invasion of Egypt (1512-1520))
Disintegrative phase: 1590-1700 (from the War with Hapsburgs (1593-1606) to the War of the Holy League (1683-1699); according to John, this is exactly one saeculum)

Later cycle:
Integrative phase: 1700-1850 (from War of the Holy League (1683-1699) to the Crimean War (1853-1861); according to John, this spans the crises of War with Russia (1768-1774))
Disintegrative phase: 1850-1920 (from the Crimean War (1853-1861) to fall of the empire (1908-1922); according to John, this is exactly one saeculum)

China:
Qing cycle:
Integrative phase: 1650-1850 (from the Qing Invasion (1660) to the Taiping Rebellion (1851-1864), although John has not officially traced the saeculums of this period)
Disintegrative phase: 1850-1950 (from the Taiping Rebellion (1851-1864) to World War II (1932-1949); according to John, this is exactly one saeculum)

Other cycles whose saeculums have not been traced (that I know of):
France:
Carolingian cycle:
Integrative phase: 700-820 AD
Disintegrative phase: 820-920 AD

Ancient Rome:
Regal/Early Republican cycle:
Integrative phase: 650-500 BC
Disintegrative phase: 500-350 BC

China:
Western Han cycle:
Integrative phase: 200 BC-10 AD
Disintegrative phase: 10-40 AD

Eastern Han cycle:
Integrative phase: 40-180 AD
Disintegrative phase: 180-220 AD

Three Kingdoms cycle:
Integrative phase: 220-440 AD
Disintegrative phase: 440-550 AD

Sui cycle:
Integrative phase: 550-610 AD
Disintegrative phase: 610-630 AD

Tang cycle:
Integrative phase: 630-750 AD
Disintegrative phase: 750-770 AD

Song cycle:
Integrative phase: 960-1120 AD
Disintegrative phase: 1120-1160

Yuan cycle:
Integrative phase: 1250-1350
Disintegrative phase: 1350-1410

Ming cycle:
Integrative phase: 1410-1620
Disintegrative phase: 1620-1650

010hnoor
Posts: 2
Joined: Fri May 15, 2015 7:45 am

Re: Peter Turchin and "Secular Cycles"

Post by 010hnoor »

ntegrative phase: 1700-1850 (from War of the Holy League (1683-1699) to the Crimean War (1853-1861); according to John, this spans the crises of War with Russia (1768-1774))
Disintegrative phase: 1850-1920 (from the Crimean War (1853-1861) to fall of the empire (1908-1922); according to John, this is exactly one saeculum)
NOOR

Post Reply

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 18 guests