Expanding certain crisis lists

[John]

Sounds good. Give it a shot. Let me know if I can help.

John

[Nathan G]

I have developed a complete list of states that have existed in history, extracted from this source: http://www.worldhistorymaps.com/

I know there are probably a lot of bugs in this list, but it's probably a good starting point. It gives us a much clearer picture of the scope of our mission.

Some observations:
-There are about 4,400 states known to history
-Over 40% lasted less than a Saeculum (80 years)
-Over 99% lasted less than 10 Saeculums
-There has never been a state that lasted more than 20 Saeculums. The longest is Japan (c.538 AD-Present)
-If we assume that Turchin's "Secular Cycles" lasts for 4 Saeculums, then all states lasted less than 5 Cycles

Enjoy!

List of historical states:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BzepkU ... sp=sharing

[ElmarR]

Regarding South Africa:
This is how I think the Crisis Stages have been:
1799-1819: starts with 3rd Cape Frontier War and ends with Zulu Civil War
1879-1902: starts with Zula War and 1st Boer War; ends with close of 2nd Boer war
1970-1989: starts with student protests; ends with scrapping of Apartheid

This imples that we should be in the Awakening. However, we are clearly either at the end of an Unravelling, or already into the next Crisis. All the present signs indicate that. The political changes and "awakening" of the young black generation are all typical of Awakening, and this would be so, if it were not that the country is on the verge of disintegration.
Here are the worrying signs:
Unepmployment: we need a growth rate of the order of 5% to bring that to "acceptable" levels.
Energy: we have a stalemate: we have a net supply shortage. It cannot even support a <1% growth rate. There is no relief in sight.
Corruption: it can only be described as a feeding frenzy.
Finance Minister prediction: by 2020 the entire national budget will be consumed by government salaries and social grants.

So, that begs the question: if I am correct, then what happened to the AWAKENING and UNRAVELING?
Here is my theory: there are Super-cycles that synchronise world-wide from time to time (every 320+-? years?) And maybe even SuperSuper-cycles (every 1280+-? years?).
During intervening peiods, different cultures/states run to their individual cycles, but periodically they converge (as different sine waves would). However, regional superpowers tweak their local associates, drawing them like a magnet.
The 1914-1948 period was such a drawing together.
This was preceded by the Euro Crisis around the French Revolution which set in motion the demise of the ancient political structure of Europe. The British Empire then started drawing in the rest of the world into line with the Euro/US timeline.
Thus I believe that the early-1900 convergence made GLOBALISATION possible (this recent trend would not have been possible if defferent areas of the world were, say, in CRISIS, whilst others in AWAKENING.)
GLOBALISATION accompanied by Pax-Americana has then brought about a further drawing together, which could mean that the current CRISIS could end up being an Epoch-making CRISIS.
But I still need to do a lot of work figuring out how this works, because I spsect the criteria are different.