Economic Crises and Generational Theory

[Chim Richalds]

Much has been made on John's site and this forum regarding the current economic troubles and how they relate to Generational Dynamics. This seems straightforard enough--generational panics and crashes occur during 4th Turnings when the survivors of the previous crises all retire or die all at once. But while generational cycles are localized (subject to timeline merging, of course), it seems economic cycles are not. I can't seem to jive this.

If economic cycles were identical to generational cycles, then an economic crisis would happen in evey society's 4th Turning, without exception. I am not sure this is the case. John frequently mentions the five major generational panics and crashes throughout history, which seemed to encompass the entire world. The current economic crisis (originating in the USA) has spread around the world. Are countries that are in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Turnings immune to this? THis doesnt seem to be the case.

Furthermore, did countries that recently went through war crises also have economic crises? Did Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon have economic collapses as part of their crisis wars in the '80"s? I don't know.

I am guessing the following (I have evidence for none of this, just pondering):

--Generational economic crises affect the entire world, but are never caused by countries not in 4th Turnings.

--Economic crises occur as a part of every country's crisis, but depending on the importance of that country to world macroeconomics, the crisis may or may not spread to other countries.

--When a worldwide generational panic and crash occurs, countries that are not in crisis periods have better economic infrastructure in place to handle the crisis, and are not as affected as countries that are in crisis periods. Times may be hard, but an economic crisis that affects a country in an Awakening wouldnt lead to a war, necessarily.

--Worldwide Generational Panics and Crashes occur during the 4th Turning of the country that is the dominant global economic power at the time. Consider:
--Tulipomania--Holland, dominant economic power at the time
--South Sea Bubble--Great Britain, dominant economic power at the time
--Bankruptcy of French Monarchy--France, dominant economic power at the time
--Panic of 1857--Germany, dominant economic power at the time
--1929 Wall Street Crash--USA, dominant economic power at the time
--Subprime Mortgage Crisis--USA, dominant economic power at the time

--It seems the reason that Generational Panics and Crashes have occurred roughly every 70-80 years is because Holland, Great Britain, France, Germany, and the USA are all on the same generational timeline. Would the timing of these crashes have differed if, say, the Congo had become the dominant economic power by the time of its crisis in the 90's?

Once again, all of these are just guesses--the last two are probably the weakest. Just meant to spur discussion.

[Matt1989]

I had the same idea about a year ago, but I don't think the timing is quite right, as Britain was not in a 4T in 1720. (The USA supposedly caused 1857, but if you want to pinpoint Europe for other reasons, they were certainly not in a 4T either) As stated elsewhere, I think a few of the crash choices are a bit suspect.

I also find the idea of an economic cycle running against the saeculum to be highly counterintuitive, but there is something there, I believe. I just haven't quite put my finger on it. It would be great to find a developed country where the saeculum and the economic cycle are disjunct and gauge the attitudes of the people, but I don't think that there are any left...

[John]

Dear Chim,

> If economic cycles were identical to generational cycles, then an
> economic crisis would happen in evey society's 4th Turning,
> without exception. I am not sure this is the case. John frequently
> mentions the five major generational panics and crashes throughout
> history, which seemed to encompass the entire world. The current
> economic crisis (originating in the USA) has spread around the
> world. Are countries that are in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd Turnings immune
> to this? THis doesnt seem to be the case.

> Furthermore, did countries that recently went through war crises
> also have economic crises? Did Iran, Iraq, and Lebanon have
> economic collapses as part of their crisis wars in the '80"s? I
> don't know.

I try to distinguish between regional cycles and international
cycles.

• Crisis war cycles are highly regional.
• Technology cycles (and Kondratiev cycles) are international,
  because technology quickly travels from region to region.
• International generational financial crises are international.
  They are characterized by massive asset inflation and debt
  securitization, followed by a crash and deflationary spiral.
• Every country going through a crisis war has some kind of
  financial crisis, just because total war is expensive.
  These local financial crises need to be studied more.

Obviously, not every country's fourth turning coincides with the
international generational financial crises, and in fact I'm not sure
that any of them do completely, except by coincidence.

Sincerely,

John

[John]

Dear Matt,

> I also find the idea of an economic cycle running against the
> saeculum to be highly counterintuitive, but there is something
> there, I believe. I just haven't quite put my finger on it. It
> would be great to find a developed country where the saeculum and
> the economic cycle are disjunct and gauge the attitudes of the
> people, but I don't think that there are any left...

How about Mexico? How about Japan? How about Zimbabwe?

Sincerely,

John

[Matt1989]

How about Mexico? How about Japan? How about Zimbabwe?

My guess is that Mexico and Japan are currently being merged with the Western timeline; Zimbabwe seems more due to government mismanagement.