Book recomendation

[Tom Mazanec]

7 Deadly Scenarios by Andrew F. Krepinevich (2009) depicts 7 ways the "pot starts to boil". The chapters lay the background of the flashpoint, explore a scenario of it going critical, and end asking "what next".
The chapters are:
1 The Collapse of Pakistan
2 War Comes to America
3 Pandemic
4 Armageddon: The Assault on Israel
5 China's "Assassin's Mace"
6 Just Not-on-Time: The War on the Global Economy
7 Who Lost Iraq?
The chapters are written as news summary articles written at the time of the event (generally a few years after publication, ie c"now") complete with fictitious futuristic footnotes.

[Higgenbotham]

http://books.google.com/books?id=zYgUZt ... ies&f=true

For those interested in reading more about a scenario for future nuclear war, this links to excerpts from the book's chapter on "War Comes to America" which describes the scenario of terrorists obtaining nuclear weapons and detonating them in American cities. In his scenario the first weapon is detonated in San Antonio. This surprised me. As I've mentioned in another thread, if the terrorists are looking for a target close to the Mexican border, Houston to me is the obvious choice. Another thing people should consider is that suitcase nukes may already be present within the US.

[Reality Check]

Book recomendation

7 Deadly Scenarios by Andrew F. Krepinevich (2009) depicts 7 ways the "pot starts to boil". The chapters lay the background of the flashpoint, explore a scenario of it going critical, and end asking "what next".

Most of the web-site reviews of this book are simply re-prints of the publishers press release for the book.

These Wall Street Journal and TheWordZombie.com reviews are exceptions:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1235352 ... %3Darticle

http://www.randomhouse.com/book/95747/7 ... repinevich

The author:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Krepinevich

http://www.csbaonline.org/about/people/akrepinevich/

Amazon Reader Reviews:

http://www.amazon.com/Deadly-Scenarios- ... Descending

[Trevor]

I've been reading the sections of the book that it has on Google. It's certainly an interesting read.

For one thing, it mentions the folly of believing that economic connections can prevent a war, pointing out that a similar relationship existed between Britain and Germany. It gives a plausible scenario for how a war could break out, economic troubles providing a trigger to the conflict.

The big mistake it makes, though, is assuming a civil war in Iraq; seems to be a constant theme everywhere. Despite its flaws, though, he seems to have a better understanding of the world than most do.

I'm actually writing something similar myself, a fictional scenario involving a U.S.-China conflict. I'm working on my last revision before I start sending it to publishers.

[Reality Check]

The big mistake it makes, though, is assuming a civil war in Iraq; seems to be a constant theme everywhere.

One must wonder if the bigger mistake is treating countries like Iraq and Syria as nation states for purposes of Generational Dynamics.

Both countries are less than 100 years old and were created by France and Great Britain by combining various disparate administrative regions of the former Ottoman Empire into "countries".

The true nation states may be the Sunni Arab nation state, the Shia Arab nation state and the Kurdish nation state. Treating the Sunni Arabs as a nation state, in a crisis period, might be a better way to apply Generational Dynamics in Syria and Iraq.

A civil war in Iraq as part of a larger war between Sunni Arabs and all other religions and ethnic groups in Syria, Jordan, Lebanon and Iraq may yet be possible. The premature withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq to allow Obama to keep a campaign promise may have enabled that.

[John]

Dear Trevor,

> I'm actually writing something similar myself, a fictional
> scenario involving a U.S.-China conflict. I'm working on my last
> revision before I start sending it to publishers.

You're about to go through hell. Sending something to a publisher is
like dropping it into an abyss.

You might want to ask science fiction write Tom Mazanec, the person
who started this thread, for advice and suggestions.

[Trevor]

You're about to go through hell. Sending something to a publisher is
like dropping it into an abyss

You're not the first person who's told me that and I'm beginning to find out. I didn't realize at first just how long this process is.

So, Tom: do you know any publishing companies who post military fiction that I can send it to? I've found a couple, but I'm assuming that many are going to turn me down before I finally find someone.

[zohaa]

Are there any of you who don't have this feeling?

I know this is a fictional example but I'll use it. It's a series called: "A Song of Ice and Fire" where winters can last years and there's a major one coming. Instead of preparing for it, however, all of the kingdoms (this is a medieval fantasy series) spend their time fighting each other, playing political games, stabbing each other in the back and not caring at all about their impeding disaster. Eventually, however, winter does come and thanks to not preparing and spending the time destroying each other, many, many more people are going to die as a result.

It's exactly what we're seeing now. Our political parties are doing nothing to prepare us for what's coming, chiefly concerned with maintaining and increasing their own power. Anyone who warns that this can't continue or tries to do something is silenced using any means necessary. Meaning when winter does come...

[gerald]

Are there any of you who don't have this feeling?

I know this is a fictional example but I'll use it. It's a series called: "A Song of Ice and Fire" where winters can last years and there's a major one coming. Instead of preparing for it, however, all of the kingdoms (this is a medieval fantasy series) spend their time fighting each other, playing political games, stabbing each other in the back and not caring at all about their impeding disaster. Eventually, however, winter does come and thanks to not preparing and spending the time destroying each other, many, many more people are going to die as a result.

It's exactly what we're seeing now. Our political parties are doing nothing to prepare us for what's coming, chiefly concerned with maintaining and increasing their own power. Anyone who warns that this can't continue or tries to do something is silenced using any means necessary. Meaning when winter does come...

from my other post

by gerald » Sat Nov 01, 2014 6:49 pm

ISIS May Be Weaponizing Ebola, Spanish Government Warns

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-0 ... ment-warns

Furthermore, Mr Martinez, the second in command in Spain’s interior ministry, said investigators had identified ‘many examples’ of threats to use Ebola as a chemical weapon.

He pointed out three specific cases in which aspiring jihadis ‘linked to ISIS’ had used internet chat rooms to seriously discuss the viability of harnessing the deadly virus and other toxins as part of a new terrorism offensive, according to Spain’s RTVE media company.

One conversation, identified as having taken place between ISIS sympathisers in mid-September, referred to ‘the use of Ebola as a poisonous weapon against the United States,’ he claimed.

Another conversation reportedly saw militants working out how best to employ ‘deadly chemical products’ they had stolen from laboratories.

Mr Martinez went on to say that a spokesman for the terror group had also taken to the internet to urge supporters to kill Westerners by any means possible – adding that he had suggested ‘poisonous injections’ as a possible method.
Despite increasing evidence of biological attacks on the West, US Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson denied allegations of the Islamic State’s plans to use biological weapons. “We've seen no specific credible intelligence that [the Islamic State] is attempting to use any sort of disease or virus to attack our homeland,” Johnson said earlier in October.
-------------------------------------
Exactly what is needed to prove -- "credible"?

[Nathan G]

In The Fourth Turning, Strauss and Howe used "winter" to refer to a Crisis period. Crisis periods come every 80 years, but no one is ever prepared for them because everyone who remembers the last crisis dies out. In American history, these crises have been in 1780 (The Revolution), 1860 (The Civil War), 1940 (World War II), and 2020 (? ? ? ?).

Winter is coming, in c.2020. No one is prepared because those who remember WW II are dying out. But, just like countless cycles before, we will recover.