Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

I figure they have to keep the facade of a recovery going through the end of the year to have any hope of consumer spending this Christmas. I'm thinking early next year the markets will be allowed to correct. (Of course this is what we thought about 3Q earnings too). That time line will also feed in...

Congratulations John on just over a year for these wildly successful Forums! I used to check your site 1-2 times per week for your posts into which you continue to put a great deal of thought and research; but now with the Forums I check 1-2 times per day and can often see your posts developing. Sti...

I've been wondering how these High Frequency Traders could be tracked. Here is an easy search to accomplish just that: http://market-ticker.denninger.net/archives/1375-Green-Sharts-On-The-NYSE!.html It also explains why volume has been only average for the seasonally low August period when I would h...

You are absolutely right to say that the same shysters are still at the helm: http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D9A9CVP00&show_article=1 Wall Street may have discovered a way out from under the bad debt and risky mortgages that have clogged the financial markets. The would-be solution probably...

From my vantage point, much of the past 3 weeks the market has rallied on short covering. My evidence for this comes from the Rydex asset data. fig_2.jpg This reminds me of a question I first ruminated last May when I was forced to close my short positions. If this most recent rally has decimated s...

The longer the Chinese procrastinate, the less likely they can deflate the bubble in an orderly way. I do not believe anyone has ever been successful deflated a bubble (and at least been able to claim credit for having done so). Much as Greenspan complained of "irrational exuberance", several Chine...

... The bubble in Shanghai reached a new high last night and likewise in New York just a few minutes ago, exceeding the historical models I am using as well as (it appears anyway) the likely time window set up by Didier Sornette and others who used different methods to estimate that the bubble in S...

I suppose it could turn around and go down today in China, but it's making new highs at the moment. Sornette had July 17-27 for the top of the bubble and I have July 29 (in the US) if it follows the Tulip Mania. I'm guessing that Sornette may be giving a 2 standard deviation time window or somethin...

From the article below it is clear that insiders are not buying their own BS about valuations and the "emanate recovery" : http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601213&sid=au8cyqeJFifg&refer=home Me thinks the sanguine cheer leading will soon turn to "Sell in May ..." and "buy the dips" platitude...

I too was fortunate enough to find this site in 2007 and it has saved much of my retirement money (for now). I have had some success trading the market with puts & shorts, but the government is constantly changing the rules against these positions. I agree with John & the deflation topics above. Thi...