Search found 2379 matches

by vincecate
Sat May 15, 2010 1:03 pm
Forum: Finance and Investments
Topic: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies
Replies: 768
Views: 428262

Re: The price of gold

First, let's repeat what I've said many times before: For decades gold has remained in the range of $300-400 per ounce, except for the 1980 bubble, and the current bubble. The "real" value of gold is therefore $300-400 per ounce, whether you like it or not. If you want to throw in something for inf...
by vincecate
Fri May 14, 2010 11:02 pm
Forum: Finance and Investments
Topic: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies
Replies: 768
Views: 428262

Re: Inflation, deflation, gold and currencies

I posted about the inflation vs deflation debate on a thread about the Generation Zero movie, but it seems that discussion should really be here. I have also been writing up my own document on this economic mess and it has a section on inflation vs deflation. I would appreciate any feedback on eithe...
by vincecate
Thu May 13, 2010 8:48 am
Forum: Politics, Culture, Music and the Media
Topic: "Generation Zero - The Inconceivable Truth" - the movie
Replies: 28
Views: 29831

Re: "Generation Zero - The Inconceivable Truth" - the movie

Awakening and Unraveling eras, as did America's high inflation in the 1970s. Credit abuse and bubbles are common during Unraveling eras, but they tend to come crashing down into deflation in Crisis eras. This time it's not different. John Before Nixon in 1971 the world was still at least sort of ti...
by vincecate
Wed May 12, 2010 6:37 am
Forum: Politics, Culture, Music and the Media
Topic: "Generation Zero - The Inconceivable Truth" - the movie
Replies: 28
Views: 29831

Re: "Generation Zero - The Inconceivable Truth" - the movie

I think we are getting the Kondratieff Cycle type deflation if you view gold as the real money, which I think Kondratieff did. Measured in gold, things are getting cheaper these last 5 years and I expect they will keep getting cheaper for some time to come. So in "real money" we have deflation, but ...
by vincecate
Tue May 11, 2010 7:51 pm
Forum: Welcome
Topic: Welcome to the Generational Dynamics Forum!
Replies: 87
Views: 128954

Re: Welcome to the Generational Dynamics Forum!

I am Vince Cate. I moved to Anguilla in the Caribbean in 1994 and renounced my US citizenship in 1998 (bought a Mozambique citizenship and used that till I got Anguillian citizenship). Anguilla is a taxhaven. I have a wife and 4 sons. I think seasteading will be in my future: http://wiki.seasteading...
by vincecate
Tue May 11, 2010 6:54 pm
Forum: Politics, Culture, Music and the Media
Topic: "Generation Zero - The Inconceivable Truth" - the movie
Replies: 28
Views: 29831

Re: "Generation Zero - The Inconceivable Truth" - the movie

There is another big difference between now and back then. Ben Bernanke spent most of his life reading and writing Keynsian papers about the Great Depression that all say the Fed should have printed more money. Helicopter Ben was speaking before Milton Friedman once and said something like, "you are...
by vincecate
Tue May 11, 2010 3:41 pm
Forum: Politics, Culture, Music and the Media
Topic: "Generation Zero - The Inconceivable Truth" - the movie
Replies: 28
Views: 29831

Re: "Generation Zero - The Inconceivable Truth" - the movie

If you're going to use a "this time it's not different" argument, then you have to explain why this time it's not different from the 1930s, when deflationary spirals hit both creditor and debtor nations. [...] This time it's not different. John :-) It is easy to say what is different from the 1930s...
by vincecate
Mon May 10, 2010 8:06 am
Forum: Politics, Culture, Music and the Media
Topic: "Generation Zero - The Inconceivable Truth" - the movie
Replies: 28
Views: 29831

Re: "Generation Zero - The Inconceivable Truth" - the movie

John, your comment that the situation is completely different reminds me of a book you should read. The title is "This Time is Different". Each time governments bailout banks and companies you end up devaluing the currency (inflation not deflation). I think they have more than 100 examples. Not once...
by vincecate
Mon May 10, 2010 7:55 am
Forum: Politics, Culture, Music and the Media
Topic: "Generation Zero - The Inconceivable Truth" - the movie
Replies: 28
Views: 29831

Re: "Generation Zero - The Inconceivable Truth" - the movie

John: "The situation today is COMPLETELY DIFFERENT from the Weimar republic situation, and there is NO CHANCE WHATSOEVER that those scenes will be repeated." Has there ever been a country with a fiat currency (not tied to gold or anything) that had any big deflation? I really think you underestimate...