Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

The 3 phases of a bull market. So far as I know, the credit for this concept goes to the late, great Richard Russell. Russell has been gone a long time and I was unable to find his description of this, so I took a different description and modified it close to how I remember Russell describing it. This describes stocks, but it can be applied to any market.



Phase I is the Accumulation Phase, where farsighted investors sensing that prospects although now depressed, are due to turn up. They are willing to pick up all the shares offered by discouraged investors and distressed sellers. The public is disgusted with the market and has now exited. Activity has trailed off and becomes dull. Price action normally undergoes a prolonged sideways movement and becomes immune to bad news. Most remaining investors have a general disposition to expect worse things ahead. It is now that stocks have sunk to below "Known Values" and under these conditions informed, serious investors begin their accumulation, therefore this phase is named the Accumulation Phase. Competition is at a minimum as the public is disinterested, careful and controlled purchases take place as a long base is established. The uninformed public is incapable of recognizing the bargains as they don't look for value.

Phase II may be called the Mark-Up Phase. It occurs as the improved tone of business and rising price action begin to attract public and institutional attention. This second phase is the longest phase and most deceptive of the three phases. It is characterized by a steady advance building on increasing activity reflected in growing volume. It will be punctuated by secondary reactions when investors become convinced lower prices are out of the question. When the bull chorus is the loudest a secondary reaction often strikes to the downside which is unusually violent compared to the other phases. The advancement in prices during phase II is in response to the known improvement in earnings. Stocks are marked-up because belatedly the public becomes aware that pessimism or necessity had forced prices too low.

Phase III is termed the Blow Off Phase or Mania Phase. It is labeled this as the market undergoes a character change. No longer are stocks bought in due consideration of intrinsic value or earnings power, but instead the crowd buys on prospects only with no regard for values. Certain stocks take on a religious component as their future seems certain and the masses flock to them. The market boils with activity, financial news is all good, price advances are spectacular, IPOs dominate the financial headlines and grab everyone's attention. It's in phase III where your obnoxious brother in law reminds you how he scored huge by flipping the latest fad stock, oblivious of course to the fact that it had been going up for years and has zero earnings. In phase III the market has been going up for so long it seems to actually take leave of its senses. General confidence has allowed price to discount not only present values, but future dream like possibilities.

https://thepostmillennial.com/receipts- ... aign=64483

opps

And for the record, I'm a veteran who has multiple friends with permanent health problems bc of burn pits. Both sides need to just stop screwing around and get this done. And Democrat celebs like @JonStewart who never served can shut the funk up.— Jack Posobiec ?? (@JackPosobiec) July 30, 2022

Sample noted as we did since 2003.
You can't trust anything the xiden people say. You can't make a billion dollar investment based on the word of these people. As soon as the first Hurricane hits the gulf coast this Summer gasoline cost will jump above $5 and stay there. Good luck.

download/file.php?id=704

Go ahead and vote blue or red and see if they even pretend to listen.

Will Rogers was simply correct "this country has come to feel the same when Congress is in session as when the baby gets hold of a hammer."

It's day 520 of Build Back Better with Captain Oatmeal.

https://cms.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=vgukM6gI

thread: gY7RIn4byK0, lightswitch, seven sisters, peleg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gY7RIn4byK0 every single time

Oil Company: Let me get this straight. You hate us but demand that we "do something" to save your a$$ in the mid-terms.

Thursday with governors, labor leaders, and business leaders to discuss the implementation of more offshore wind capacity, snubbing oil company executives who were meeting with U.S. Energy Secretary

As red the trucker hums the roof the roof is on fire....

The “hot” phase of the conflict formally ended with the signing of the Minsk agreements in February 2015, although clashes and shelling continued. For seven years thereafter, the conflict seemed “frozen” — a common phenomenon in global politics. meduza

The carrot will placed were you think and the stick will be used as you already know.

7-Year Cycles That Crush The Uninformed:
1. unbridled enthusiasm
2. mass confusion
3. sudden disillusionment
4. search for the guilty
5. punish the innocent
6. rewarding of the non-participants
7. see step one

https://media.patriots.win/post/iDgTJ5bU.png Your new leader serfs.

They mock you every second as you worship these moleks.
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden- ... un-dispute
Blue flush.

You will be lucky to be in a staggering economy as 2026 comes and goes.

John wrote: Sat Jun 18, 2022 7:00 pm ** 18-Jun-2022 World View: The Principle of Maximum Ruin

I've posted the following quote from John Kenneth Galbraith's book
The Great Crash - 1929 several times in the past, but it's
worth repeating now.

I've referred to this in the past as The Principle of Maximum Ruin --
the maximum number of people were ruined to the maximum extent
possible.

Please read the following carefully.

As placid as a produce market. The Principle of Maximum Ruin.

John Kenneth Galbraith was in vogue when I was at uniniversity and I first read this circa 1967 and many times since. Also in vogue in that era was Keynes, Schumpeter, etc

I don't think one can avoid stock market traps without a knowlegde of long term stock market history (say 1900 to 2022), plus an understanding that the P/E ratio is the main driver of stock prices. Historically the P/E ratio goes below 10 every time a bubble market goes into genuine correction. On occasions its gone down to around 5.

So I think we can expect a P/E ratio of less than 10 at some point even with the FED interference of today versus 1929. But because of this the stock correction won't as severe as 1929, I don't think.

So currently the people to watch are the FED. If they move too fast to control inflation they could well spark a deep recession or depression. If they are too slow, or don't do enough, inflation could get out of control and itself create an economic depression.
The principle of maximum ruin will apply to uninformed or greedy people. If I buy back into stocks when the P/E ratio is below 10, assuming the companies I buy remain solvent, I won't be ruined if the P/E ratio falls to 5; I simply wait for the expected increase in sock values as the P/E ration moves back to 10 and its long term average of around 15.

John, I happen think that your deflationery forecast using generational theory will prove correct, just allow time for the economic misery to develop. As as far as buying gold etc, yes, I do think there is a short term opportunity as a safe haven, but that recessionery forces will wack it down again. I have never bought crypto and don't think I ever will. I simply cannot make any sense of crypto pricing other than bubble mania.

EU Kommissioners have never heard of "demand destruction".
No seeds from the pulp or juice for the lumpenproletariat.

The bloated unelected and a mint is all of that.

We are facing the first global energy crisis. Sismondi would point to Says Law.

viewtopic.php?f=14&t=2&p=68702&hilit=sa ... b81#p68702

The queen of the damned cult ignored.

search.php?st=0&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&keyw ... 1&start=20

7-Year Cycles That Crush The Uninformed:
1. unbridled enthusiasm
2. mass confusion
3. sudden disillusionment
4. search for the guilty
5. punish the innocent
6. rewarding of the non-participants
7. see step one

We are on the precipice of moral annihilation.
As the educated do relay the phenomenon of genocide.
Amos has a better definition.

Red Queen hypothesis and the stalking horse observation that was rather early.
Sat Aug 08, 2020 11:25 am
Step three was rather early one may observe.

Hell awaits many. Get your House in order is all we can warn to.

Many on the left have backed Biden’s call for U.S. oil companies to increase their output to combat high prices — even though that production will drive up greenhouse gases — along with his partnership with the European Union to send more natural gas to the continent through 2030.

Progs are still crazy even if they could comprehend what these bug paste eating in mut huts have truly done as you will have nothing.

7-Year Cycles That Crush The Uninformed:
1. unbridled enthusiasm
2. mass confusion
3. sudden disillusionment
4. search for the guilty
5. punish the innocent
6. rewarding of the non-participants
7. see step one

No it was decided to punish the innocent.
Tue Dec 17, 2013 3:55 am
Are you starting to get the picture?
Our economic infrastructure is being absolutely gutted and more than 46 million Americans are now living in poverty.
And if you are waiting for the jokers in Washington D.C. to fix things, you are going to be waiting for a very, very long time.
Over the past several years, both the Democrats and the Republicans have proven again and again that they are basically completely and totally useless.

We are not either as we are done with burn loot murder lie cheat steal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OOu07mxfmJk Changes in implied volatility (volatility or vega risk)

Wheat rises to a record $9 a bushel.

Boers are to get skinny in that zone. As reported on numerous levels it went from 20 to over 40 as in million for approaching hunger.
One zone appears to be 100 million tons short of food soon. What has been under reported in some cultures is when
they eliminated them in starvation slaughter they had been replaced with another tongue. Now they are invading it.
The point is simple now as the horse was reshoed now is it to be ridden. The white Horse is on your very border and you know what it is on it.

For the uninformed, under-educated, and out-of-the-loop “Dark Winter” refers to the deep-state, top-secret, bio-terrorist attack
simulation run by John Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies and the Center for Strategic and International Studies
between June 21-22 of 2001.

For years the liberal left has failed to identify fascism.
As with the communists confronted by Stalin’s purges they put near-term objectives ahead of rationality.

The World Economic Forum at Davos represents the top 1,000 companies yet its playbook is revolutionary. A blackout would starve out the middle class and allow "the workers" to rise. These workers will be manipulated by finance capital.

The energy shortages recall the role of Stalin, organizing strikes in the Rothschild oil refineries before the collapse of Tsarist Russia. It’s an old narrative, recently repeated in Kazakhstan, in Germany’s energy shortage, and with the closing of U.S. pipelines.

It is time to stay focused on the globalists’ underlying agenda, which is forcing an economic collapse so they can introduce a new monetary and social system. This would complete what the Covid Lockdowns began, by devastating small and mid-sized businesses and transferring wealth from the middle class to the oligarchy.

U.S. mid-term elections in Nov 2022 will be a bonfire. To late.

Georgian Josef Jughashvili, later known as Stalin, worked in the Black Sea oil port of Batumi for the Rothschilds.
As Simon Sebag Montefiore retells, on his first day of work in Dec 1901, the Rothschild refinery caught fire. Stalin then organized a strike and ordered the assassination of the refinery director. In 1907 Stalin found himself in the Caspian oil city of Baku, where despite the intelligence service of the Tsar and the Rothschilds, he organized another strike — which the company paid him to stop. The family later helped finance Stalin. Bankers and oilers work in mysterious ways.

Joseph Jughashvili (Stalin) in archival materials of the murder of Ilia Chavchavadze. Ilia Chavchavadze was the great Georgian writer, sometimes called “Father of Nation”. On August 30, 1907, the killers awaited Ilia Chavchavadze’s phaeton on the road near Tsitsamuri and Saguramo villages, near Tbilisi capital of modern Georgia. Ilia Chavchavadze and his servant were killed and Ilia’s wife was brutally beaten.

According to archival and other historical documents, four or five people participated in the assassination of Ilia Chavchavadze. Today we know that the killers were Ivane Inashvili, Pavle Pshavlishvili, Gigla Berbichashvili, and “Imereli,” who is referred to as “One Imereli” in some documents, and “Imereli” in others. In one document he is called “the leader of Ilia Chavchavadze’s killers’ gang”. According to acceptable documents, the fourth killer under nickname “Imereli”, was Iliko Imerlishvili. He was an active member of the Bolshevik party in Georgia.

The narrative will be difficult to unravel today on the actual effects blamed on mud hut logic Kafirs and the removal of the old world order as such.

Stalins view moving forward. 'perestroika' meant 're-shoeing' - as of a horse: that is to say,
not of the regime itself, but of the system's means to consolidate its power. Millions starved and Rus speaking moved in.

Right now they are acting on that event. The white horse in Canada was used to change focus on what is now going on. As they say in irony
a gift taken back.

Menshevik Trial was conducted by Stalin, an early part of the Great Purge.
The Messenger moved with the Menshevik center from Berlin to Paris in 1933 and then in 1939 to New York City,
where it was published until 1965.

Menshevik Internationalists.
The radical wing of the Menshevik party, opposed to any coalition with the propertied classes, yet unwilling to accept the Bolshevik concept of the dictatorship of the working-class. Trotsky was long a member of this group, and also included Martov and Martinov.

Martinov, Alexander (1865-1935) Right-wing Menshevik before 1917 and for a few years after the revolution an opponent of the Soviet government. Strong advocate of the two stage theory: that fully capitalistic government needed to run its course in Russia before Socialism was possible. He joined the Communist Party in 1923, and became an opponent of the Left Opposition. He was a chief architect of the Stalinist theories used to justify subordinating the workers to the "progressive" bourgeoisie, including the concept of the "bloc of four classes."

New Democracy, or the New Democratic Revolution, is a concept incorrectly based on Mao Zedong's adapted as the Bloc of Four Social Classes theory in post-revolutionary China which argued originally that democracy in China would take a decisively distinct path to that in any other country.
Adapted as the Bloc of Four Social Classes theory in post-revolutionary.

Fair trade rhetoric.
In 1847, the worst year of the Famine, almost 4,000 ships carried food from Ireland to the major ports of Liverpool, London, Bristol and Glasgow. Over half of them went to Liverpool, where many Irish people also ran out of money as they strove to make their way across the Atlantic.
Records show that ports in some of the worst-affected parts of Ireland, including Ballina, Bantry, Ballyshannon, Kilrush, Sligo, Limerick, and Westport on the Atlantic seaboard, where thousands upon thousands were dying of starvation, were also sending food to the so-called mainland.

Oats, corn, and potatoes left Ireland for the “mainland” while there was an ongoing debate over whether or not the ports should be closed raging in British politics. Merchants had pressed the British Government to keep the ports open and allow free trade to continue without intervention, even though the city councils in Belfast, Cork, Derry, Dublin and Limerick pressed for the ports to be closed so that food could be kept on the island of Ireland. Mindful of the death and despair all around them, the cries from the Irish cities were ignored.

The way we look at it phase three is here as they reclaim that zone.

Solzhenitsyn explained this very well in that region also and they will not pay attention in this one either.

Stalin set the stage, Vlad just carries on.

Stalin described his converts as “useful idiots.”
The “useful idiots” have destroyed every nation in which they have seized power and control.

The Frankfurt logic has infected these shores and the intent is clear.
Used to pave the way for phase three and the end of your ability to even think.

“It is difficult to free fools from the chains they revere.” -Voltaire

Wed Mar 20, 2013 3:30 pm
Once you close a sector the production base and then knowledge collapses. Some times on monolopy purposes of intent and events to few regard in history. On another note we are watching as this time around the unprecedented efforts to stimulate the domestic economy have left many uninformed investors blind to the weakness that is being experienced in what is seen an important engine of global growth, emerging markets." Every market cycle is different, with leading divergences by copper prices lasting anywhere from a couple of months to several years. The last time the divergence between copper prices and the S&P 500 was as long lasting as the current cycle was prior to the S&P's 2007 price top. The tower of babble is worshipping the policy of the FED. The disconnect is staggering now. We are watching semi conductors also.

Tue Dec 07, 2021 3:23 pm
The Dutch are the exclusive manufacturers of the extreme ultraviolet photolithography equipment necessary to produce 3 nm designs.
The rest is bull shit for crayon chewers to distort what they are truly after.
It also starts with water since now it is a priceless industrial commodity unless your a brain dead Marxist.
Both sides of the pond understand this as the other corridors got secured we also watched real time also.
Like we noted the Taliban was swinging pick axes to their new masters of dead on arrival tech.
The life cycle as Kuznet or Hurst cycles for the facts if it suits them for now.

The point is simple in Human Action.

The choke point are obvious to some since the simm issues.

dead canary is correct
ltr

7-Year Cycles That Crush The Uninformed:
1. unbridled enthusiasm
2. mass confusion
3. sudden disillusionment
4. search for the guilty
5. punish the innocent
6. rewarding of the non-participants
7. see step one

Greentards and greenmasks also freeze.
We donated cash to bury them when they would not listen also.
Doubt you cared then also.

In December 2020, Facebook had a stock-market valuation of nearly $1 Trillion.
America's largest natural gas producer (EQT) had a valuation of $4 billion.
The former is a social-media monopoly, whose only product is their users' personal information and lack of shame,
and was celebrated by America's elites for their role in manipulating national politics,
while the latter produced about 2.5% of America's total energy usage, and was under attack by the same people for putting inert CO2 into the atmosphere.

America is not a serious country. Its clown world. You are what you value. So don't cry America, when you get your *** kicked.
Same for Western Europe. Retards and color revolution crayon chewers.

A whole bunch of natgas pipelines into NY area were recently cancelled. When voters start to complain put on a sweater and
enjoy your unix sandbox reality. Idiots.

The poor and the elderly never had a chance with these lie cheat steal neo keynesian demsheviks.

He left in the 1970's, but His aunt's dacha still has an outhouse.
Industry is dominated by Putin's cronies and there's nothing left for ordinary Russians.
It's all an illusion - just like Soviet times.
China is on the brink of revolution their ponzi economy is collapsing.
Like all commie countries now here also, it's projecting strength because it's incredibly weak and mentally decrepid.
Of course, moving production to China was a stupid move by America.

Most Russians and Chinese know how to live through hardship. Americans haven't experienced any real hardship since the depression, and have degenerated into a bunch of entitled whiners who think they're owed their luxuries.

Whether you accept Deagel's population forecast or not (and there's good reason for skepticism), you have to admit that his rationale for why America's population will collapse has some merit: Because they're utterly incapable of dealing with what lies ahead.

We know how and when your head disappared.

Congratulations Xiden47, you engineered an energy blackout from woke crayon chewing retards.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or12UEx8fHY

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=the+washingto ... ave&ia=web

You got gamed. Well played by intent.

Taping the brakes on runaway leverages and speculation garnering puts will not fix this moral hazard.
The observation they finally seen was this spring and they touched the brakes early summer will and should be found true.
The point remains do you wand 8 percent to crater and vanish or 4 percent to remind to big to fail is to big to think.
As we have seen on lets say do something amazing rhetoric surfacing.
Bias routes to the 25 laws of disinformation is standard.

7-Year Cycles That Crush The Uninformed:
1. unbridled enthusiasm
2. mass confusion
3. sudden disillusionment
4. search for the guilty
5. punish the innocent <------ odious debt
6. rewarding of the non-participants <------- August sweeps.
7. see step one

The hot money pouring in from zones will ride this out on the lowering of the river for three to five years.
We have only secured our local customers and above the margin may not include you but you knew that.
We discussed this.

Bad people ruin decent people every time since it is a feature. Truly amazing deflection.

Hang Seng-3.30%
Hong Kong – Opens in 3m

Name one bank that had the balls to care for there own customers.
Thant why employees do not come back or customers stay.
They adapt since recession proved the point the level of criminality and omission is amazing.
They are not coming back. You proved the criminality intent. Row well 41.

God is dead,
Life is absurd
& there are no rules.
Hugh Hendry
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22sKFQjYLKA

The blue pill.
They chose poorly indeed.

He lives
Life is amazing
& there are rules you missed.