Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

** 27-Nov-2023 World View: Forum at highest level

Paul Reed wrote: Mon Nov 27, 2023 4:11 am > Once more, I want to thank John for
> creating this forum. I predict that
> many of your "closet" followers will
> now come out and help the group as a
> whole. Could you perhaps set up a
> forum at the highest level to
> discuss asset/investment management
> in these once-in-a-century times, so
> that our collective thoughts flow
> naturally into the appropriate,
> easily accessible location? For
> example, raising Financial Topics to
> the top of the "tree" of forums.
> Regards, Raf

I don't completely understand what
you're asking about. What "closet"
followers are you referring to?

What kind of forum at the highest level
are you asking for? Do you want a new
thread under "Financial Topics"? What
would be the name of such a thread?
Keep in mind that you could create a new
thread yourself, as a registered member.

Or perhaps you're asking about a new
sub-forum under "Spotlight." What would
be the name of this sub-forum, and what
would be the name of the first thead?

So I would appreciate it if you could be
more specific.

Once more[url],[/urlhttps://petdietadvisor.com/] I want to thank John for creating this forum. I predict that many of your "closet" followers will now come out and help the group as a whole. Could you perhaps set up a forum at the highest level to discuss asset/investment management in these once-in-a-century times, so that our collective thoughts flow naturally into the appropriate, easily accessible location? For example, raising Financial Topics to the top of the "tree" of forums.

Regards,
Raf

sample: 41 minutes ago
We came within a cat's whisker of getting nuked half a dozen times in the last cold war. And, that was when the guys pulling the strings had front line experience with what war is. The idiots running the show now have no clue. Don't be surprised if the lights go out.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dnepr
No winners just knives and poor souls from the agony of the commons being ground to dust.
As we mentioned three days of darkness and a blessed holy candle, they collapsed into a vacuum.
When that coldest night He announced the three days in his hour to the few who did tell us.
Three Days of Darkness refers a prophecy of intense chastisement and then hope, that is very similar to the plagues of Egypt.

Yes, no, you better hope not.

Therefore, we approach risk management in the market by choosing to hedge risk and reduce potential liabilities.
As such, given the market’s current structure, we have three options currently:
Do Nothing – If the markets do correct, we destroy capital and time waiting for the portfolio to recover.
Take Profits – Taking profits, raising cash, and reducing equity exposure before a correction helps mitigate the damage of a decline. However, if wrong, we can repurchase positions, add new ones, or resize portfolio holdings as needed.
Hedge – We have also opted to hedge by adding a position to the portfolio that is the “inverse” of the market. Such allows us to keep existing positions intact. By “shorting against the portfolio,” we effectively reduce our equity risk (and related capital destruction) during a market correction. L

Some say soon not l8ter.

Discouragement is the finest tool of the devil, his opening wedge. Do not give in to it. Perservere in prayer,
to keep your adversary from taking dominion over you.
Remember that No one goes to hell unless he himself wills it and deny the price already paid for us.

2 way https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkT-UwUugG4 entertained rather than listen

Spending cuts won't happen by either party. Taxes will go up its called structual inflation.
United State taxpayers never has a chance with these predators.
China has a long term strategy. We have Tim Conway's old man character
CEOs flock to China.

China’s state security authorities raided multiple offices of international advisory firm Capvision,
state media reported Monday, part of a broader crackdown.

Companies “are now starting to see that their actual operations on the ground are getting interfered with and interrupted,
he added. “So I think it’s certainly raising a lot of alarm bells, and it’s creating a lot of concern.”

https://duckduckgo.com/?q=jason+smith+r ... ave&ia=web

https://www.pwc.com/us/en/tax-services/ ... ar-two.pdf
The below categories are subject to tax rate increases.
You consumers will learn who will pay.
The income and withholding tax rates for the categories listed above would be increased initially by 5 percentage points,
increasing up to 20 percentage points.

Next time like the last time will mean nothing. You will pay more not less kids. Its baked in.
Inflation is policy but you will ignore uniparty lipstick as they are in the sack. You know you can shit can the lot of them.
Principal clause is distant memory but we understand that to our current debt levels run by the external affairs only lip stick regime
compromised department as your better over there micbody farm. The period of the deracinated import period was rather lethal
for some of our workers and some freinds who did not survive.
https://archive.org/details/RedMafiyaHo ... iedman2000
As we reported it took about ten years to find out who cut them down and also the ones who did it.
As we are with this current red letter cult even the Senate is ignored as they run riot over the land ours did die for.
As I told a few died during the democrat sticky wage war on American Workers. I would see it through.

https://fee.org/articles/30-of-walter-w ... -coercion/

richard5za wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 10:24 am

NoMansLand wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 11:43 pm

NoMansLand wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 5:05 pm
I had never heard of Jerome Powell before he took his current position back in '18. Most seem to believe he is as anxious to get back to easy money as they are. I can only hope he has gone along with things as they were for so long because he thought the economy could take one more for the team. Please tell me that he knows he has to keep hiking, even in the face of pain, to preserve the dollar's reserve currency status. Tell me that he is a man of fortitude who has always been determined to do WHATEVER the situation called for, even if he hoped it wouldn't come up.

I posted that quite a while ago, and I can only hope Powell has the guts I was asking about to keep up with the campaign against inflation. Even if it's just .25 points at a time.

The dollar is under assault from threats both foreign and domestic. That isn't in doubt. However, I believe we are still in a position to assure that, even if King Dollar is killed, we remain relevant. This is only possible if we keep fighting inflation and preserve some value. Even if the Fed is raising with their right hand while doing "targeted easing" with the left.

Powell needs to be careful of not causing a debt default in more banks. It looks like some banks were less than prudent in the low interest rate period. So on one hand he has to sort inflation and on the other avoid a financial crisis - I don't envy his task

It looks like some banks were less than prudent...

Richard, you are polite to a fault.

NoMansLand wrote: Tue Mar 21, 2023 11:43 pm

NoMansLand wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 5:05 pm
I had never heard of Jerome Powell before he took his current position back in '18. Most seem to believe he is as anxious to get back to easy money as they are. I can only hope he has gone along with things as they were for so long because he thought the economy could take one more for the team. Please tell me that he knows he has to keep hiking, even in the face of pain, to preserve the dollar's reserve currency status. Tell me that he is a man of fortitude who has always been determined to do WHATEVER the situation called for, even if he hoped it wouldn't come up.

I posted that quite a while ago, and I can only hope Powell has the guts I was asking about to keep up with the campaign against inflation. Even if it's just .25 points at a time.

The dollar is under assault from threats both foreign and domestic. That isn't in doubt. However, I believe we are still in a position to assure that, even if King Dollar is killed, we remain relevant. This is only possible if we keep fighting inflation and preserve some value. Even if the Fed is raising with their right hand while doing "targeted easing" with the left.

Powell needs to be careful of not causing a debt default in more banks. It looks like some banks were less than prudent in the low interest rate period. So on one hand he has to sort inflation and on the other avoid a financial crisis - I don't envy his task

NoMansLand wrote: Tue Aug 16, 2022 5:05 pm
I had never heard of Jerome Powell before he took his current position back in '18. Most seem to believe he is as anxious to get back to easy money as they are. I can only hope he has gone along with things as they were for so long because he thought the economy could take one more for the team. Please tell me that he knows he has to keep hiking, even in the face of pain, to preserve the dollar's reserve currency status. Tell me that he is a man of fortitude who has always been determined to do WHATEVER the situation called for, even if he hoped it wouldn't come up.

I posted that quite a while ago, and I can only hope Powell has the guts I was asking about to keep up with the campaign against inflation. Even if it's just .25 points at a time.

The dollar is under assault from threats both foreign and domestic. That isn't in doubt. However, I believe we are still in a position to assure that, even if King Dollar is killed, we remain relevant. This is only possible if we keep fighting inflation and preserve some value. Even if the Fed is raising with their right hand while doing "targeted easing" with the left.

richard5za wrote: Tue Mar 14, 2023 7:56 am If I had been sold by your passion for BTC and bought in, I would have lost a fortune! Stock markets make fools of us all and if that was not the case with you then you would be happily playing with your billions somewhere else other than this website.

If you had been "sold" on BTC, you're admitting you don't understand it, so of course you shouldn't have, because you don't. The recommendation, I don't know why you guys can't get this through your thick skulls, is to buy and hold. Ironic that you talk about cycles, but for some reason "you would have lost a fortune" - NO - you would have lost something if you SOLD it, which was never the recommendation and shows you aren't reading, listening, or doing your homework. I'm not scared, I have bought in the teens before, and bought at 24 and 45. I'm not worried at all, because I know what this asset is, and I know it also goes through cycles. One is coming up, and as I have predicted, it will cycle to new all time highs. Know what's going to happen when that occurs around here? Crickets. No talk of "tulips" or other dumb stuff most of the people say here, even though BTC is safe and secure (though volatile) for almost 15 years now. Yeah, tulips. What a low level joke analysis that is, said by many people here.

Let's recap:

I described the economic circumstances, laid out over many posts, perfectly. Inflation is out of control, transitory was a lie, and it is. It can cause disinflation because of the government's reaction (raising rates) or by collapsing the economy, but supply will still outstrip demand, and the deflation call of John et al has been wrong for over 2 years now. With that prediction, I made people a lot of money, including myself. Actionable, seeing things as they are, etc. Also, printing will occur again in the future, which will catapult real assets and BTC. If you see clearly, you'll be one of the view who wins this next decade, even though most everyone loses, especially index and bond people last year, who got their asses handed to them.

I was wrong that Russia wouldn't invade at that time (Feb) when I posted. Ok. So what? Meant nothing, big picture, if you understand the reasons why they did. Most here don't. Again, I was wrong, but it didn't matter, like the above econ and markets predictions matters to people lives. If anything the invasion helped and will help what I'm recommending people buy and be in for the next 10+ years.

I've described precisely what's been going on with the corona scamdemic and the hurtful jabs. If you don't think that's huge, when someone like our founder has absolutely no clue about it, you are really dishonest. People have died from this, and will continue to. I can't think of anything MORE important on internet posting/predictions, than that.

Even though I won't get a thank you, you're welcome. If nothing else, I fight through censoring here to deliver the truth. Again, I'm hated for it. I know that it comes with the territory, so I'm happy to suffer foolishness for a single person to get the truth about things. Meanwhile, Bish is disliked, but not censored, voicing the propaganda of the true enemies of the world and its people. Think about that for at least 10 minutes before you respond, please.

Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Nov 23, 2022 2:57 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Nov 13, 2022 10:42 pm

richard5za wrote: Sat Nov 12, 2022 5:03 am


Would be very interested in any additional views you may have

I have no strongly held views and no new ideas. It's still my guess that 4200 should cap this market and maybe 4000 will do it.

Still not much new here. I started going short November 10 and added a little as the S&P approached and exceeded 4000. Some have opined that today started a new leg up. I am skeptical of everybody's bullish predictions and their associated targets (4150, etc.) and will just continue to slowly build shorts if the market rises.

My equity is holding steady since starting to short again on November 10 and my account has good gains since the market bottom at 3500 (which is good performance for someone biased as bearishly as me). The big spike down in account value late September was a withdrawal.

If the 20 year (double decennial) cycle deserves any weight, December 2, 2002 was a local top before a sizable move down to the March 12, 2003 low. My best recollection and I have a bias that pattern could be approximately repeated (and with bigger swoons).



Link to 2002/2003 chart:
https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advch ... se&state=9

Were they raising rates at the end of 2002? It looks like they did, half a point in November of 2002 and continued cutting into mid 2003 and beyond. Very interesting.

Without something cataclysmic, and that might happen in 2023-25 for sure, I see the S&P back down to 2800-3200, then foreign money will pour in and support the US markets. Later on, the government will have to print due to the global depression, and that's when we see oil, gold and BTC go through the roof.

richard5za wrote: Thu Nov 03, 2022 5:08 am I suspect that the Fed has now realised that they have a stubborn inflation problem on their hands, and hence the hawkish tone after yesterdays FOMC meeting.

But the market knows they have always dropped rates at any sign of trouble for the last 40 years, so the market does not really
believe the Fed will keep raising rates. Trouble.