Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

The image of the fire is from a gas pipeline explosion in Bandar Ganaveh South Iran from August 2016.
It took 2 minutes to do the reverse image search, and it originated from another twitter account.
https://twitter.com/mo_hashemi/status/7 ... 8320927749
It boggles the mind how lazy people are, mentally ******* lazy.
So much information at your fingertips and can't take the time to ******* look things up.

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=VFN_iWCI

cef funds expected to drift down

one of the more accurate technicians on Seeking Alpo who I follow, with his prognostications on the upcoming direction of the markets. While I don't trade or invest on these predictions alone, I still find it helpful to get a perspective on the sentiment or psychology of the market as a reference point. If correct in his expectation for lower levels in the coming months, then there could be better buying opportunities in CEFs ahead.

the mini bear raids and tactical funds will bootstrap as noted
http://gdxforum.com/forum/search.php?ke ... sf=msgonly

Iran's money was returned to them. Your belief or disbelief is irrelevant whom is jumping up and down in what mental state.

The snow drift game theory is in play.
VWAP is used to identify liquidity points.
Snowdrift Dilemma, a metaphor from game theory - the study of strategic decision making -.
https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=SxBSTtLe

The roi on the property to be cashed purchased and will pay the price channel 6.76 to 8.63 percent after expenses.
Dave is on the radio but most are to busy to listen anyways.
No the phone is never on and the wife filters messages.
https://www.bing.com/images/blob?bcid=Ti-NT-WIIs0AUg

29.47% annualized since January 1, 2019

We have been raising cash since the sho and 32xx notes H as you know.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bK32VGwKR_E

The Team's are aware and have been. The forums cover this moral
pathology as we get time to improve each other.

1Strategic Capability
2 Developing People
3 Safety / Environment
4 Planning / Organization
5 Customer Focus
6 Communication
7 Analysis / Decision Making
8 Action Oriented
9 Interpersonal Factors
10 Tech / Functional Knowledge
11 Financial Acumen
12 Teamwork
13 TQM
14 Ethics & Values

aeden wrote:https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=y_5hHH-j

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufiE8ARCXO0

34x?
window mid metal jan bootstrap reset

“Right now, there’s no real inflation at play. But if we go further than we are currently, inflation is inevitably going to rise.” Alan Greenspan
https://chapwoodindex.com/
The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America.
They ignore what we already know.

water wheat weather

My first reaction was that Chapwood is fake news. The difference between Chapwood and the published figures is massive and ongoing. People who live in a country know if the inflation figures are crooked. If Chapwood is accurate how on earth does the Federal Government get away with it

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=y_5hHH-j

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ufiE8ARCXO0

34x?
window mid metal jan bootstrap reset

“Right now, there’s no real inflation at play. But if we go further than we are currently, inflation is inevitably going to rise.” Alan Greenspan
https://chapwoodindex.com/
The Chapwood Index reflects the true cost-of-living increase in America.
They ignore what we already know.

water wheat weather

https://www.naturalnews.com/2019-12-20- ... ident.html

Yea we already thought of that also.

You’d better get prepared for the coming civil war, because that’s exactly where Democrats are pushing this. It now seems obvious that the only way to stop the lawless, treasonous Democrats is for a million armed Americans to descend upon Washington D.C. and take the necessary steps to defend the republic and restore the rule of law under our duly elected President Donald J. Trump.

That day is rapidly approaching, exactly as I’ve warned for nearly three years.

https://www.naturalnews.com/2019-12-09- ... cuted.html
24 voices that are warning America about what is coming.

https://www.zerohedge.com/s3/files/inli ... k=Q8tJ_nRR
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/mcell ... tary-crowd

H
took sixty percent more off book 1 on the pivot gamma to bootstrap into 2020
did not ignore R or you

The quid quo pro is the red and more blue illegal laundering action looting taxpayers holding their posterity hostage is the clear point we already knew taxpayer are watching this knowing half the fbi should be marshals with doj cleaning up this swamp embarrassment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T7MlWq7wUBw

Over the past few weeks, some of my themes have been:

• Anybody who has been playing the overvalued stock and associated markets of the past 2+ decades is gambling, not investing, whether they want to admit it or not
• Less than 1% of all gamblers can beat the market averages (and I am NOT part of that 1%)

So let's examine how that has worked out since March 28, when talk of a crash was rampant. On that day, I said I didn't want to gamble big money on a crash, but would try to bootstrap my futures account to take advantage of a possible crash.

Since the close on March 28, the S&P 500 index is up 2.4%.

As posted here, my futures account had $4,611 on March 28, at which time I noted the attempt to bootstrap into a crash would likely fail (whether the market crashed or not). That attempt did in fact fail. My futures account now has $4,710 in it and incurred a substantial loss yesterday when I pressed my position near the low looking for a crash.



After losing even more money early in the day today, I made that loss back because at that point anybody could see the market was going to continue higher.

In addition to that (to my surprise it's this good) my stock trading account is up 0.81% over that time period (March 28 to the present), lagging the S&P 500 index by 3-fold.

John wrote:

Higgenbotham wrote: > I've decided to take my own advice and get out of all shorts, wire
> out, and wait for the next opportunity. Final decision. From the
> top, I made 280 S&P points on a 10 lot basis.

I've always thought that some day traders actually have a form
of gambling addiction. Are you suffering any withdrawal symptoms?

Higgenbotham wrote:I wired all the money out of my futures account this morning except for a token amount ($4,600). And almost all the rest of my money is in short term t-bills. So I have very little to no ability to take an "oh gosh I might have missed the crash" trade.

I did that on purpose after a cold, hard look this weekend.

Tonight is the first time I've had an urge to trade futures since you wrote this about a week ago. The reason I wanted to trade is I saw the stock index futures must have responded to some news, as they were quickly down about 1% and I thought there would be some volatility.

Last week I wired almost all the money out of my account, leaving only $4,611. That wasn't enough margin to trade even 1 stock index future of any kind. My first job tonight was therefore to get enough margin in my account to trade a Russell 2K which requires $4,620. I traded a silver to do that, then traded a Russell 2K.

The upshot being at some point if I want to gamble, I set things up in such a way that I have to bootstrap my account to generate the funds to be able to gamble in any significant size, or I can't. Also, that allows me to get a feel for the market while my head is screwed on straight and if it looks like I should take a bigger position I can drive over to the bank when it opens up in the morning and wire in some margin. Because it takes a lot of effort to do that, typically I do not unless the opportunity appears really exceptional.

Here's a stat from the other end of the economy... the poor.
1976: Median household income: $10,962
1976: Poverty threshold (assuming a 2 person household, no kids): $3,838
Earning 35% or less of the median was legally considered poverty.
Minimum wage in 1976 was $2.30 an hour.
2011: Median household income: $51,413
2011: Poverty threshold (assuming a 2 person household, no kids): $15,063
Earning 29.3% or less than the median was legally considered poverty.
Minimum wage in 2011 was $7.25 an hour.
"Median individual income" stats would make this easier, as "per capita" is kinda bullshit. And I would really be interested in calculating this all out on an individual basis using a poverty line for singles.
So, anywho, looking at this. To hit the poverty threshold in 1976 at minimum wage it would take 32.1 hours a week, 52 weeks a year.
At present, it takes 39.955 hours just to hit poverty.
Poverty in 2012 means a full time, 40-hours a week job at minimum wage. You have to work 19% more just to get to the same fucking place you would be at 36 years ago.
How about how much you get to keep of that poverty wage? (No, I am not bothering with state taxes here)
1976 tax rates:
14%: $0-$1000
15%: $1001-$2000
16%: $2001-$3000
17%: $3001-$4000
Standard minimum deduction of $2100 filing jointly. FICA was 5.85% leaving $3,613 pretax and $1,513 taxable. Taxes would be $217. End of the day, in your pocket you have $3,396 or an effective overall tax rate of 11.5%. Or in real terms, you worked 3.69 hours a week for the taxman. Inflation adjusted, this is $13,696.09 today.
2011 tax rates:
10%: $0-$17,000
Standard deduction of $11,600 filing jointly. FICA was reduced temporarily to 5.65% leaving $14,212 pretax and $2,612 taxable. Taxes would be $261. End of the day, in your pocket you have $13,951 or an effective overall tax rate of 7.4%. Or in real terms, you worked 2.95 hours a week for the taxman. Inflation adjusted, this is $14,232.51 today.
Sure, I could have picked a few years later on, but this was more or less near the end of good times, and when things started turning to shit.
Let's look at 1982, 30 years ago... just for laughs.
1982: Median household income: $18,422
1982: Poverty threshold (assuming a 2 person household, no kids): $6,487
Earning 35.2% or less than the median was legally considered poverty.
Minimum wage in 1982 was $3.35 an hour.
To hit the poverty threshold in 1982 at minimum wage it would take 37.24 hours a week, 52 weeks a year.
1982 tax rates:
12%: $3401-$5500
14%: $5501-$7600
Standard minimum deduction of $3400 pre-figured in for filing jointly. FICA was 6.70% leaving $6,052 pretax and an income tax of $329. End of the day, in your pocket you would have $5,723 or an effective tax rate of 11.8%. Or, in real terms, you worked 4.38 hours a week for the taxman. Inflation adjusted, this is $13,609.35 today.
Of course, what's not being included in that inflation stat, are the actual costs of things like health insurance or education. CPI is also manipulated (obviously). In 1970, total health care expenses (average per capita) was $356. By 1980 it was $1,110.
Rent has outpaced inflation as well.
Poverty levels, in relation to the median have not tracked at all, they are off 6 percentage points from what it was before. To hit that poverty level, you also are working more at a minimum wage job. Working that 1976 minimum wage job for a full 40 hours a week. After FICA, taxes, and inflation, you'd be looking at the equivalent of $16,732.94 right now. Pre-tax, it's an equivalent of $9.28 an hour.
Compare that to today @40 hours a week.
1976: $16,732.94
2011: $14,232.51
That sound you hear is you being fucked out of 15%, right off the top.
Let's readjust poverty levels by those 6 points now eh, just bump it to the 35% to keep the figure nice.
Adjusted 2011 Poverty Level: $17,995
That results in you needing to work 47.73 hours a week to hit it at minimum wage, or $8.65 an hour at 40 hours a week.
So, cool.. let's factor for that. Post tax you're sittin' on $16,440 or $16,771.74 in 2012 dollars. Sure hope you got that raise to keep up with the inflation. Bust that hump for that extra $40 a year slave!
Let's look at college again eh?
http://i.imgur.com/vvJyG.png
This is looking at public, in-state, 4-year universities including tuition and all other fees. Average rate in 1976-77: $1,218 per year. That's a whopping 10.2 hours a week at minimum wage. Or essentially a solid summer of full time if you ignore taxes. In 1982-83 it was $2,139. Ok, it got bumped up to 12.28 hours a week now. Working all summer is gonna gap you about $500.
How about now? Well, in 2009-2010 it was $12,804. Obviously higher now, but what the fuck, let's use that number. Assuming no changes, a minimum wage job is going to demand 34 hours a week (ignoring taxes). Working all summer full time? Not even fucking close. You're only out? Loans obviously, which are all much higher than inflation even for the fed ones. The ones that don't fuck you as much are capped at $5500 a year for freshmen. You have been gapped, enjoy the fun of private loans and co-signers! You are now destined to graduate into an economy that increasingly does not need you and has been screwing you for 40 years.
What's really funny is looking at that 34 hour figure. To get through college, you have to work more than it took to get to poverty status for an empty nest couple back in 1976 (ignoring taxes of course). But let's look at taxes! Using standard deductions and the education deduction it's $13,925 pretax or 37 hours a week at minimum wage. Congrats! You are now doing 1982-levels of poverty threshold work for a empty nest couple! If you are not being claimed, you can snap up to $13,500 a year with no income taxes. That's still 36 hours a week.
So it totally makes sense now if you have boomer parents. Dad worked as a part-time janitor to pay for all of college. Grandpa did a little side-work to put mom through. No debts at all in the end. Why the hell can't you bootstrap your ass and do the same? After all, they were able to do it just fine.
Scholarships, grants... sure ya might get a few to help out. If you are lucky maybe you saved some cash up to pay for college. If you are lucky you have parents who are willing to foot the bill. But we're not looking at those, we're looking at poor average people. For the simple fact that being at a level of poverty back in the day wasn't as easy as it is now. A blue collar, minimum wage household could still find a little room to put a kid through college. Or the kid could, with a little work put themselves through at a decent place. I'm not talking about the gifted, the lucky, the talented here... I'm talking average realities.
Now if you want to talk median... $51,413 in a state with no income taxes and taking no credits or deductions beyond the standard is $43,822 a year or $3652 a month. How much is left after rent/mortgage+taxes+insurance/utilities, car expenses, medical and other insurance, food, etc? Now, do keep in mind, that it's the median, so 50% are below that number.
And here's a nifty little thing for you consumer units to calculate with: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.nr0.htm
How much is left over after all taxes and I do not believe that this covers loan payments.
And yet, people wonder why everything is fucked....
So, once you take all of this into account, you can see how everything is just barely (read "not at all") scraping by. Unwilling to face the reality of the situation, it's just far easier to yell about taxes, which would free up a tiny bit more money. When there's enough money already, taxes are not really a big issue. When money's tight, it feels like theft. Unfortunately, no one is really putting forth the question of WHY everything is fucked, but that really has more to do with who actually controls the national dialogue, and it sure as hell isn't the self-declared "middle class". h/t loa

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JmkrgfOP ... redirect=1