Generational Dynamics Forum - New Site

Local prices for transportation is down 17 to 22 percent.
Regional smack down from sources is real and escalating.
They are over paying and have. The rate increases will just blow up the rest
already just hanging on.
The next snackdown for those paying attention is well underway.
The smart money indicator noted very very early here is a juxtaposition not to
fight the tape. Commy Joe has destroyed you.
The price channel will eat them alive unhedged.
It is well understood the fourth wall shut on them for bytecorn and has wiped out millions.
The smack down is suggested as the bottuming process. We regard that as even wishfull thinking
inyo September. Our reset is oct27 for winter is already here as it may be a good thought map
to review Kondratieff for lengh of said problem for starters.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what- ... ter-bottom

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zUKXhRikfPw& old code tuesday

https://static.wixstatic.com/media/8fa5 ... 6~mv2.webp

Yes as you graphed. The traction and trepidation will sort itself out sooner than later as we suspected.
They thought H. We know better is our resolve.
As noted 44xx if we are lucky and the pivot gains traction into spring 2024 from these reset lunatics.
We simply asked to bend the curve in truth and they went bat shit crazy as we also asked one thing.
Stop us funding these slaughter lunatics of the unborn as they sew once viable humans scalps to rodents.
There necks should snap here and judgment will be eternal for what we witness unabated.
The Senate is a horrific relegated disgrace.
No we could care less as we warned what foreigners and burn loot murder lie cheat steal think.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/her ... ying-plans
The demand draw and logistic into August was abundantly clear but alas, they are educated.
Consumers are the ruthless arbiter.
We are dealing with biblical depravity and the taxpayer has had enough
of the educated arrogated beamed in ballet epic criminals imbeciles.
The agency issue is bad enough and they are serving interests and not the duty they are sworn to protect.
They disgrace our noble dead.

As it was said before on maturity mismatch they are dancing on economic volcano when they call the notes.
search.php?keywords=Kondratieff&t=2&sf=msgonly
Chapter 6 - Kondratiev Cycles and Generational Dynamics
The challen­ge in the early 21st century consists of identifying the sixth Kondratieff and consistently using it.
Those companies, regions and countries that succeed in this, will be among the winners.

water wheat weather

And for that, Mr. Gruber credited the “stupidity” of the average American, as well as the “lack of transparency” of the whole Obamacare process.
“Lack of transparency is a huge political advantage. And basically, call it the stupidity of the American voter or whatever, but basically that was really, really critical for the thing to pass. … Look, I wish … we could make it all transparent, but I’d rather have this law than not.”

Moreover, one has to decide how to treat things like willful ignorance.
A version of willful ignorance, that is, evil of the left will carry into 2018.

The frog can just see the river bank on the crocodile's nose.
Anyone who uses the terms "growth" or "% of GDP" is an asshole.

Burn it down then buy it back at the end of the Kuznet cycle discount window 520 weeks later.
Environmental and sustainability will be the protagonists of the next Kondratieff cycle.

1. cycle: textiles
key innovation: steam machine
2. cycle: transport
key innovation: rail / steel
3. cycle: mass consumption
key innovation: electrical engineering / chemistry
4. cycle: individual mobility
key innovation: automobile / petrochemical
5. cycle: information
key innovation: information technology
6 cycle: demographics / usury
key innovation taxpayer manipulations / odious debt cult managers

rule 13."Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it." Cut off the support network and isolate the target from sympathy. Go after people and not institutions; people hurt faster than institutions.

solution: never twitter as you will fit rule 13 since you become the "common enemy" of actual common sense....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lO-jcgsTQHk Largely concerned with class, inner-city pressure. The lyric "From Lake Geneva to the Finland Station" refers to the train route taken by Vladimir Lenin when he was smuggled by the Germans to Russia during World War I, a pivotal event in the Russian Revolution. Indeed, it is highly likely the lyric was inspired by the book To the Finland Station by Edmund Wilson, a very famous work on the history of revolutionary thought and Socialism that Tennant would have at least heard of, if not read, as a student.

First Known Use: 15th century - criminal -
Synonyms :crook, culprit, felon, democrat, rhino, lawbreaker, malefactor, miscreant, offender

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/columnists/kass/
Dissolve them before they steal more money.

tsts

The three catalysts framing this Fourth Turning are debt, civic decay, and global disorder. No amount of normalcy bias, optimism bias, over-confidence, or desire for the status quo, will take precedence over the uncontrollable mechanisms propelling this Fourth Turning. jim

Gerald is correct. One's perspective and background affects one's actions.

Crime and taxes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lO-jcgsTQHk
The lyric "From Lake Geneva to the Finland Station" refers to the train route taken by Vladimir Lenin when he was smuggled by the Germans to Russia during World War I, a pivotal event in the Russian Revolution. Indeed, it is highly likely the lyric was inspired by the book To the Finland Station by Edmund Wilson, a very famous work on the history of revolutionary thought and Socialism.

Nothing we could do for them either...... A decade later about eighty percent had filled the position once it collapsed it was conveyed.

Anyone who uses the terms "growth" or "% of GDP" is an asshole.

Burn it down buy it at the Kuznet discount 520 weeks later.
Environmental and sustainability will be the protagonists of the next Kondratieff cycle.
1. cycle: textiles
key innovation: steam machine
2. cycle: transport
key innovation: rail / steal
3. cycle: mass consumption
key innovation: electrical engineering / chemistry
4. cycle: individual mobility
key innovation: automobile / petrochemical
5. cycle: information
key innovation: information technology
6 cycle: underway since demographics is the destiny of it.

https://image.slidesharecdn.com/weizsck ... 1315324333

http://www.myledlightingguide.com/roi.aspx
105 LED Watts replacing 400 Watts for 12 hrs/day 365 days/yr saving 1555 kw/year x your $ Cost per kw/h
Just on lighting alone many nuclear plants would be simply eliminated.

As you can simply see the Foundation Cult members wanted yellow cake canned sunshine in pay to play hypocrisy.

I am the son and heir of nothing in particular.

First Known Use: 15th century - criminal -
Synonyms :crook, culprit, felon, democrat, lawbreaker, malefactor, miscreant, offender

The S&P 500 High Beta Index turned south before each of the last two stock corrections. The high-beta index peaked in February 2011, more than two months before the S&P 500's apex that March. Again in 2015, the high-beta index peaked about a month before the S&P 500. In 2017, the high-beta index peaked in February yet has failed to recover with the broader market.

The issue of rationality in society. Max Weber's idea of an all-embracing rationality, and instead emphasize that each life area had its own distinct rationality. By this rationality the cardinal values of the language-produced life areas could be constructed: Critical terms of knowledge, riches, order, beauty, sacredness, and virtue. Thereby the division of labor between the creators, preservers, conveyors and receivers of each cardinal value could also be elaborated. Talcott Parsons and Edward Shils (1951. As scholars and translators they had delved deeply into Weber’s work. In opposition to Weber, they assumed that the whole of society and its various subgroups were systems.
They identified four elements that eventually became known as "AGIL" as constituent elements of all parts of society as well as of society as a whole.
The “A” stands for adaptation. It is the focus of any economic organization. The “G” stands for goal attainment. This is the focus of the political organization of societies. The “I” stands for integration of economic, political and other relatively independent societal units into a whole that can maintain its boundaries. The “L” stands for latency, the maintenance of the patterns of a society and its parts. The latter they located in the expressive symbolism of society such as religious ritual, art, recreation, and in the adherence to common values. According to Parsons and Shils, all four, A, G, I, and L, enter into any and all concrete social phenomena in various forms and proportions. The total society has its AGIL and so does all its parts. For example, a household has its A in the form of earning money and buying essentials of housing, food, and clothing. Its G appears in the form of its rules for childrearing and decisions about common property. The I in the household takes the form of fences and admission restrictions for outsiders and strangers. Its L takes the form of an honored name and family rituals.
Unlike Weber's terms, AGIL are more than abstract names of actions or clusters of actions. AGIL is a system, and “A”, “G”, “I”, and “L” are thus assumed to be interrelated in predictable ways.
To say that AGIL is a system with all the properties of a system is not an innocent proposition that can be accepted in advance of proof. There is danger in borrowing the concept “system” from biological science and engineering. The danger was once identified when social science borrowed the term “force” from physics (Zetterberg 1965, pp 38-40)

We all heard the term deficits do not matter and whom it was. Correlation to creative destruction to fiat endogeniety we already covered in the forums. The inertia is lightning quick movement of Capital and labor from the bent of mind of many. Guises already we know about in the circle on the Hill as we are.
http://www.stern.nyu.edu/Newsroom/NewsR ... CON_024937 <------------ forum readers know this connection on the Hill
http://www.northeastern.edu/dukakiscent ... 021008.ppt
Distilled further we have this.
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/n/new ... theory.asp
To backwardation to premise unravels to this effect warning, and yes I read the book and passed it on.
http://dir.salon.com/books/review/2004/07/21/peterson/
The next step back is no random walk in the bent of mind to the control burn I mention earlier.
Joseph Schumpeter, particularly in his book Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, first published in 1942. In it, Schumpeter popularized and used the term to describe the process of transformation that accompanies radical innovation. In Schumpeter's vision of capitalism, innovative entry by entrepreneurs was the force that sustained long-term economic growth, even as it destroyed the value of established companies and laborers that enjoyed some degree of monopoly power derived from previous technological, organizational, regulatory, and economic paradigms. Schumpeter also elaborated the concept, making it central to his economic theory. The most likely source can be found in his 1939 book Business Cycles. Here the Western world first learned about Nikolai Kondratieff and his long-wave cycle. These cycles, Schumpeter believed, were caused by innovations.
Today as we are In the earlier work of Marx, however, the idea of creative destruction or annihilation (German: Vernichtung) implies not only that capitalism destroys and reconfigures previous economic orders, but also that it must ceaselessly devalue existing wealth (whether through war, dereliction, or regular and periodic economic crises) in order to clear the ground for the creation of new wealth.
As we know who said never let a crisis go to waste.

Vin "This hording of cash and low money multiplier is like the tide going out before a tsunami hits. It should not make you happy and comfortable."I hope this clarify's a few of my thought to the control burn I mentioned previously in the forums. I convey to being unbraided given a poor effort on my part to clarify a contextual thought in a hectic World and its current levity to what they are choosing as policy I convey. Will they print, yea i think they will as there effort as conveyed a control burn as history conveys. I just work for a Company that finds solutions.
http://generationaldynamics.com/forum/v ... 3630#p9206

Nothing new under the Sun. http://www.hacer.org/pdf/Hazlitt00.pdf

Carl Johan Ljungberg, 1997. Vårt land: den svenska socialstaten, City University Press, Stockholm.

That is funny John. Politicians don't like to acknowledge cycles beyond their control. I have been reading some stuff by a guy that claims to be in prison named Martin Armstorng. Armstrong wrote a book called the Greatest Bull Market in history, but he also claims to have developed a time cycle kind of like Kondratief (sp) that appears to be very precise. He claims he is in jail because the SEC had him arrested for manipulating the market with his predictions. IN any case, he said STailn had Kondratieff killed because his theory would prove communism would fail.

I used to debate Mauldin with my windy and lengthy emails. I thought the title of his book in light of the times back in 2002 and 2003 was kind of funny, bullseye investing. Mauldin is what I call a bull/bear. He is also a guy interested in earning a lot of fees and selling books. I should have made an attempt to meet Mauldin since he lived within 30 miles of me. I was invited to have Sunday lunch with Doug Noland, who has predicted this mess way ahead of guys like Roubini who was at least 5 or 6 years behind Doug. In any case, I have some Mauldin stuff in my email that I need to read. He has started putting a lot of guest stuff in there. It is really hard to find people that have much of a clue as to what is going on, as I find over and over again that most dodge the idea that we have reached the point of maximum debt service capacity.

What brought me here tonight other than hoping to read something good on the home page is a good article I read today. I know you would like it John. Here is the link. http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/th ... t_id=10229 It is by a guy named Martin Hutchinson. I don't like a lot of what he writes because I get the feeling he is a British elite, but from time to time he writes stuff right down the line. Here he brings up all the Nobel economics prize winners who won for designing faulty models that were based on the fallacy of random events that could be quantified. Clearly the Nobel prizes are falling into the hand of those that want to control finance and politics. Make a guy a genius, an Einstein and then his theories have legitimacy to be used to launch rocket ships, create bombs and blow up financial system. The Prudent Bear home page has a link to Doug Noland, who puts together the pertinent news from week to week and when he has time, writes commentary. Doug is an Austrian economist and had FNMA and FRE nailed back in 2000 or earlier. I believe he has testified on more than one occasion in front of Congress. He is also an inflationist, which I believe is where he and I parted when I communicating with him and cutting my writing reputation on Prudent Bear. I write about what I can comprehend, combined with what I have understood out of my education and reading I have done, so it is a viewpoint, not an opinion or an academic pursuit.

If it will make Gordo feel any better, I cut my teeth online making accurate calls on the market in the 2001 to 2003 period. I couldn't trade it worth a damn, mainly because I am compulsive and I was trading whipsaws, which generally turn you around just about the time you are about to get even. I will be 50/50 that the next downturn, once it gets going, will leave most traders without access to their accounts and broke. Wave 3 will be either a point fibonacci multiple of wave 1 or a percentage multiple. 89% is probably more likely than 10000 plus points, but both are fairly equal targets if the market gets to a normal retrace. Remember, since this rally started, we have made steady progress, even if it has whipsawed. In an a-b-c zigzag of cycle degree, we could easily make it to 10,000 or more. All prior rallies, March-May 2008, July-Aug 2008 have been rapid 2 or 3 day moves incapsuled in a 2 month period. There wasn't a real bull trade between October 2007 and March 2009, other than a day trade. Even now, the moves happen overnight, so you have to be in. I have done the work on monthly gains and in real terms, March and April have been the only 2 months since this started where there was anything more than a marginal monthly gain, despite some 10% or greater rallies. A bear like this is nothing but a bull turned upside down.

Very nice blog. The generational theory makes a lot of sense. It is similar to the Kondratieff cycle, or are you saying something different?

About the market. It will not go down in a straight line. That would be too easy for short sellers. So one should expect violent rallies, also rallies that will last for months.

About productivity gains and humans living in a leisure society. That will not happen. If we make machines that are so powerful, they will kill us. Also we will probably start killing each other.
Before, we get to the point of full robotic society, there will be a time where only a few people will work, and the rest are unnecessary. That will create tensions, and wars.

Robots might take over, but humans will not live to see it. Also, there could be huge delays along this path. It might not happen in 40 years or so as Kurzweil and other tend to believe.

From a web site reader:

> "I sincerely appreciate the time you spend writing articles. I
> try to read them as often as I can. I am a construction worker
> and am often on the road without access to a computer.

> I started reading your weblog after I became convinced my
> retirement was in jeopardy. I transferred my 401-k from equities
> to Principle Preservation (Treasuries) two years ago. I am glad I
> did. You are partially responsible for saving me 30-40%. Thank
> you."

Thanks for letting me know.

> Are you familiar with Kondratieff?
> http://www.kwaves.com/kond_overview.htm

> I became aware of him and his theory about the same time I began
> reading your weblog. I see some very similar ideas: yours
> generational, his mathematical.

The following article has a brief discussion of Kondratiev cycles:

** System Dynamics and the Failure of Macroeconomics Theory
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... acro061025

The following chapter contains a lengthier theoretical discussion:

** Chapter 6 - Kondratiev Cycles and Generational Dynamics
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/cgi ... ok2.cycles

Sincerely,

John