Guest wrote:
> Is Trump winning the trade war with China? How long is he going to
> tolerate ZTE and there extremely dangerous tech? John, give me
> some guidance here.
This question gets asked and talked about quite a bit in this forum,
and many different predictions have been offered over the years.
When I'm asked, I always answer pretty much the same way: It might
happen tomorrow, next week, next month, next year, or thereafter.
It's impossible to predict.
In 1941, nobody predicted that Japan would bomb Pearl Harbor on
December 7. In 1929, nobody predicted a massive stock market panic on
August 28.
Here's an analogy that I sometimes use, related to the reference to
the "straw that breaks the camel's back": If you keep piling one straw
after another onto the camel's back, then you can predict with 100%
certainty that at some point the camel's back will have to break, but
you can't predict in advance which straw will break the camel's back.