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Tom Mazanec wrote:

CH86 wrote:

thomasglee wrote:
They develop the nukes but then have them tested in north Korea by the norKs. It gives Iran plausible deniability.
Just a theory I've carried for quite some time. Having the norKs do the testing allows Iran to feign suspension of their program, thereby taking the head off and letting them get the money they got from the Obama administration. The norKs obtain hard currency for conducting the tests and Iran gets to see how their development is progressing.

But there is No Reason For either Iran or North Korea to Hide their capabilities. Being declared Nuclear powers would effectively Make both countries invulnerable to any preemptive strike under the existing unspoken rules. The open development of such capabilities would also make their threat credible.

Does that same logic apply to Israel?

John wrote:When North Korea made its spectacular announcement that it would end
testing, it really had no choice:

South China Morning Post wrote: > North Korea’s nuclear test site has collapsed ... and that may be
> why Kim Jong-un suspended tests

> North Korea’s mountain nuclear test site has collapsed, putting
> China and other nearby nations at unprecedented risk of
> radioactive exposure, two separate groups of Chinese scientists
> studying the issue have confirmed.

> The collapse after five nuclear blasts may be why North Korean
> leader Kim Jong-un declared on Friday that he would [1]freeze the
> hermit state’s nuclear and missile tests and shut down the site,
> one researcher said. ...

> One group of researchers found that the most recent blast tore
> open a hole in the mountain, which then collapsed upon itself. A
> second group concluded that the breakdown created a “chimney” that
> could allow radioactive fallout from the blast zone below to rise
> into the air.

> http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac ... im-jong-un

** 1-Nov-17 World View -- Chinese geologists warn of looming nuclear disaster from North Korean tests
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e171101

** 17-Dec-17 World View -- Chinese experts warn China to prepare for nuclear war in North Korea
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e171217

South China Morning Post wrote: > North Korea’s nuclear test site has collapsed ... and that may be
> why Kim Jong-un suspended tests

> North Korea’s mountain nuclear test site has collapsed, putting
> China and other nearby nations at unprecedented risk of
> radioactive exposure, two separate groups of Chinese scientists
> studying the issue have confirmed.

> The collapse after five nuclear blasts may be why North Korean
> leader Kim Jong-un declared on Friday that he would [1]freeze the
> hermit state’s nuclear and missile tests and shut down the site,
> one researcher said. ...

> One group of researchers found that the most recent blast tore
> open a hole in the mountain, which then collapsed upon itself. A
> second group concluded that the breakdown created a “chimney” that
> could allow radioactive fallout from the blast zone below to rise
> into the air.

> http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomac ... im-jong-un

CH86 wrote:

thomasglee wrote:

CH86 wrote:
What's the purpose of Iran's Nuclear program at Bushehr and elsewhere, then.

They develop the nukes but then have them tested in north Korea by the norKs. It gives Iran plausible deniability.
Just a theory I've carried for quite some time. Having the norKs do the testing allows Iran to feign suspension of their program, thereby taking the head off and letting them get the money they got from the Obama administration. The norKs obtain hard currency for conducting the tests and Iran gets to see how their development is progressing.

But there is No Reason For either Iran or North Korea to Hide their capabilities. Being declared Nuclear powers would effectively Make both countries invulnerable to any preemptive strike under the existing unspoken rules. The open development of such capabilities would also make their threat credible.

CH86 wrote:

thomasglee wrote:

CH86 wrote:
What's the purpose of Iran's Nuclear program at Bushehr and elsewhere, then.

They develop the nukes but then have them tested in north Korea by the norKs. It gives Iran plausible deniability.
Just a theory I've carried for quite some time. Having the norKs do the testing allows Iran to feign suspension of their program, thereby taking the head off and letting them get the money they got from the Obama administration. The norKs obtain hard currency for conducting the tests and Iran gets to see how their development is progressing.

But there is No Reason For either Iran or North Korea to Hide their capabilities. Being declared Nuclear powers would effectively Make both countries invulnerable to any preemptive strike under the existing unspoken rules. The open development of such capabilities would also make their threat credible.

thomasglee wrote:

CH86 wrote:

thomasglee wrote:
That's your thought. My thought is that Iran has them and has used the norKs to test them.

What's the purpose of Iran's Nuclear program at Bushehr and elsewhere, then.

They develop the nukes but then have them tested in north Korea by the norKs. It gives Iran plausible deniability.
Just a theory I've carried for quite some time. Having the norKs do the testing allows Iran to feign suspension of their program, thereby taking the head off and letting them get the money they got from the Obama administration. The norKs obtain hard currency for conducting the tests and Iran gets to see how their development is progressing.

Guest wrote:North Korea's nuclear missiles look like Chinese ones. I don't think the North Koreans have designed anything. ... I believe the Chinese have given the weapons to the North Koreans and that the 'tests' are nothing but acts of intimidation. The Chinese delayed a trade war with America for a year and a half--Trump knows this--and that's why he is hammering down hard on the Chinese now. North Koreans are nothing more than Chinese proxies.

John wrote:

thomasglee wrote: > Think about it; they supposedly destroyed their nuclear making
> capabilities (did blow up their cooling tower) yet were able to
> quickly produce nukes to be tested. You're right, he is not
> cowed. If anything, he is emboldened. We (our leaders) keep
> treating the norKs like they are backward idiots. Kim was
> educated in Europe as was much of their leadership. They are sly.
> As the Koreans would call them, they are 족제비 (weasels).

There's another angle to this that I haven't heard anyone mention.
When you say, "He is not cowed," you're referring to the child
dictator, but when you say they "did blow up their cooling tower"
you're referring to the father.

The father made fools of the West multiple times, particularly in
2008. The child is walking in his father's footsteps, and wants to
make fools of the West as well, to prove that he's as good a dictator
as his father was. If the child fails to make a fool of Trump and the
West, it has a national DPRK meaning, but it also has a very personal
meaning, in that he will have failed to live up to his father skills.

That means that not only must he keep his nuclear arsenal, but he must
also do it in a way to make a fool of Trump. If he can't do that,
then his whole charm offensive in the last four months will have
failed as well, and he will lose a great deal of stature.