6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

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Expand view Topic review: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

Re: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

by Guest » Fri Sep 22, 2017 7:36 am

Turkey is an extremely powerful country; however, Erdogan has arrested, tortured, and even murdered the very best of the Turkish officer corps. Today, the Turkish army much, much stronger than the German army of 1933-light years ahead. The Turkish army of today is more comparable to the Soviet Union's military in 1938 after Stalin murdered most of the Soviet officer corps.

Re: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

by DaKardii » Thu Sep 21, 2017 1:38 pm

John wrote:
Brendan wrote: > John, you are right about Putin being factually incorrect but are
> missing the point. Putin realizes that what he is saying is
> factually inaccurate but he is saying it regardless because he
> wants to influence the narrative of events to suit their
> interests. He is taking small parcels of fact and trying to use it
> to change the underlying motive of events. Putin has a history of
> wanting to bring U.S.'s reputation down to his level. I think he
> probably realizes that is one advantage U.S. has on him from an
> international support perspective. If the U.S. is morally no
> different than Russia why not follow them instead? I think the
> other part all of this serves is to encourage rhetoric and
> instability on NK.
Putin's stupidity is not in his skills as a polemecist, but in his
delusional belief that he can influence events to his benefit. He
believes that by helping al-Assad create ten million refugees, or by
inciting war in Korea, he will benefit himself and Russia. The
stupidity of those beliefs is breathtaking.

And let's not forget the incredible stupidity of Putin's predecessor,
Stalin, who was completely humiliated and made a complete fool of by
Hitler with the Molotov-Ribintroff agreement, which was possibly the
greatest diplomatic disaster in Russia's history.

You wrote in another thread about how victim psychology and feelings
of inferiority lead to stupid acts and disasters, and that's what
we're seeing.
That serves as a sufficient explanation as to why Putin has suddenly made an about face regarding Turkey, and is going as far as allowing Turkey to have a say in what happens to Syria at the Astana meetings despite Assad's objections. Putin has made it clear before that he admires Stalin and wishes to emulate him. And that includes repeating Stalin's diplomatic disasters.

If you take a look at Erdogan and the ideology that he advocates, he comes across as a Hitler wannabe (remember, this is the guy who said that Hitler's model of governance is a good model to follow). Now, Turkey is not nearly as powerful as Germany was in 1939, but it's possible to argue that Turkey is as powerful as Germany was in 1933 (when Hitler first came to power and Germany was being slammed by the Great Depression). I know some of you may disagree with me, but I see Turkey as a future regional power on par with how Russia is today. And I know that's how Erdogan sees his country. Therefore, I can see Erdogan trying to play Hitler's game on foreign policy, not just on domestic policy. And given that Putin is already playing Stalin's game, this is a recipe for diplomatic disaster for Russia. As Turkey continues to grow in power, partially thanks to Putin's foreign policy, Orthodox Christianity's power advantage over Sunni Islam (which will be its enemy in the CoC war) is starting to shrink. If the Russians were smart, they would demand that Putin change course, or step down. Unfortunately, it may be too late by the time they wake up on that.

Re: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

by jmm1184 » Fri Sep 08, 2017 3:01 pm

Have you been able to come up with a list of all of Korea's crisis
wars from the 1500s to the present?
I've been doing some light research the past couple days, and its been very difficult to find crisis wars between the Imjin War and WWII for Korea.

Here's a brief analysis of Korea's history between the Imjin War and WWII.

1592-1598, The Imjin War: Japan devastates Korea in two brutal invasions, but due to heroic resistance both from Admiral Yi and guerilla armies and from the Chinese Empire, Japan is successfully repulsed, though Korea lies in ruins. evaluates to a crisis war for Korea

In 1627 and 1636-1637 the Manchus to the north launched two invasions of Korea that succeeded in ending their ties with the Ming Dynasty in China and transferring their allegiance to the Manchu Qing Dynasty. I evaluate both invasions to be mid-cycle wars as the Korean resistance to both invasions was not as strong as it was to the Japanese invasion, not due to lack of animosity but there definitely appears to be a lack of energy. Nevertheless, both wars are highly likely to have been crisis wars for the Manchus, and very harsh peace terms were forced upon the Koreans that left a severe psychological wound for decades to come.

Nevertheless, between 1637 and 1811 I have not been able to find any record of a crisis war, or even any war either external or internal for Korea. They did assist with a war against the Russians in the 1650s, but everything I can find about that war evaluates it as a non-crisis war, with the external influence of the Qing bringing the Koreans into the war, and it does not seem to have been a major war for either side.

There were political squabbles during the late 1600s and early 1700s, but nothing more severe than the execution of a few bureaucrats - hardly a crisis war.

From 1811-1812 there was a peasant uprising, but I've not collected enough sources to evaluate for sure that it is a crisis war, but it keeps being mentioned, so I can tentatively evaluate it as a crisis war.

There was another major uprising that involved 71 towns rebelling simultaneously from 1862-1863, but I cannot tell from what I've found if this was a crisis war or a mid-cycle war.

The Donghak uprising of 1894-1895 coincided with the Sino-Japanese War of 1894-1895 that was fought primarily in Korea. The two wars appear to evaluate to a crisis war, ending Korea's ties to China under the tributary system and compelling the Koreans to enact several reforms that began the modernization of the country.

In 1910 the Japanese annexed the country without armed resistance, in keeping with the end of a recovery era and the beginning of an awakening, but non-violent/low-level violent resistance seems to have begun immediately, with Japanese rule encompassing most of Korea's awakening - marked by cultural revival and substantial civil unrest, student uprisings/movements, and low-level/intermittent violence. A generational awakening climax appears to have occurred in 1929 with the mass student uprising in that year.

Korea was in an unraveling era when WWII began, and the war evaluates to a crisis war because of the intense suffering of the Korean people and the actions of the Japanese that amounted to an attempt to exterminate the Korean people.

*much of the source material of this research comes from Wikipedia, both the general Korean history section and skimming over the reigns of the Korean kings between 1600 and 1900.

Re: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

by guest » Thu Sep 07, 2017 9:54 am

Could South Korea make a deal with China and North Korea without America? That could be a way to avoid war.

Re: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

by John » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:22 pm

Have you been able to come up with a list of all of Korea's crisis
wars from the 1500s to the present?

Re: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

by John » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:21 pm

The following looks like the climax to me:

Japan launched its second invasion of Korea on August 27, 1597 [21].
Hideyoshi sent a force of 100,000 soldiers in 1000 ships to reinforce
the 50,000 troops he had left in Pusan. This invasion began with a
resounding victory by the Japanese navy, something it was unable to
achieve even once during the first invasion. This Japanese naval
victory could be due to the fact that Admiral Yi of the Korean navy
had been imprisoned on false charges of misconduct and replaced with a
rival commander prior to the second Japanese invasion 22. However, even
with this initial victory by its navy, during this invasion attempt
the Japanese army was not able to advance very far into Korea. It met
stiff resistance by a rearmed and reorganized Korean army backed by a
huge Chinese army sent by the Ming emperor who had anticipated a
second invasion of Korea by Japan. This time the Japanese did not
reach Seoul but were stopped short of the city and were pushed
steadily back towards Pusan23.

Meanwhile, the Japanese navy again suffered defeat at the hands of
Admiral Yi who had been released from prison and reinstated as Supreme
Naval Commander. At the Battle of Myongnyang in October of 1597,
Admiral Yi's small contingent of twelve ships destroyed 133 Japanese
vessels without any Korean losses. Admiral Yi achieved this victory
after luring theJapanese fleet into a narrow channel and using the
swift currents to his advantage. This victory prevented the Japanese
navy from entering the Yellow Sea and re supplying its army trying to
advance towards Seoul.

http://www2.hawaii.edu/~sford/research/ ... index.html

Re: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

by jmm1184 » Wed Sep 06, 2017 10:12 pm

For what it's worth, I think noting the dichotomy between north and south china is probably wise. right through to the end of the 13th century china was under two separate dynasties (Song/Jin dynasties etc), it's likely the dynamic persisted unto the 1500s enough to put them on different timelines.
In reading about the Imjin War, I repeatedly read about the 1540s-1560s Japanese pirate raids that frequently amounted to "mini-invasions" that affected the whole southern coast from modern Hong Kong to modern Shanghai and the river systems of the south. I couldn't say when the crisis war climax occurred, but the whole episode definitely reads like a crisis war (and I suspect the climax occurred in the early 1560s).

Furthermore, the Manchu Conquest of China is interesting because you see two distinct crisis wars - one for the North (roughly c.1620-1646) and the south (1650s-1662 or 1673-1681). The North experienced the first invasions of the Manchus, and fell with a peasant rebellion that lasted from 1629-1646. The crisis war climaxed with atrocities committed against the Chinese by the Manchus with the fall of the Ming Dynasty. Yet the south did not see this fighting, but did resist the Manchus for several more decades, and true peace was only established after the massive Revolt of the Three Feudatories that extended over all of the southern China. Meanwhile during all this war in the south the north slowly recovered from the devastation of the early 1600s.

Re: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

by Brendan » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:56 pm

John wrote:
Brendan wrote: > John, you are right about Putin being factually incorrect but are
> missing the point. Putin realizes that what he is saying is
> factually inaccurate but he is saying it regardless because he
> wants to influence the narrative of events to suit their
> interests. He is taking small parcels of fact and trying to use it
> to change the underlying motive of events. Putin has a history of
> wanting to bring U.S.'s reputation down to his level. I think he
> probably realizes that is one advantage U.S. has on him from an
> international support perspective. If the U.S. is morally no
> different than Russia why not follow them instead? I think the
> other part all of this serves is to encourage rhetoric and
> instability on NK.
Putin's stupidity is not in his skills as a polemecist, but in his
delusional belief that he can influence events to his benefit. He
believes that by helping al-Assad create ten million refugees, or by
inciting war in Korea, he will benefit himself and Russia. The
stupidity of those beliefs is breathtaking.

And let's not forget the incredible stupidity of Putin's predecessor,
Stalin, who was completely humiliated and made a complete fool of by
Hitler with the Molotov-Ribintroff agreement, which was possibly the
greatest diplomatic disaster in Russia's history.

You wrote in another thread about how victim psychology and feelings
of inferiority lead to stupid acts and disasters, and that's what
we're seeing.
Completly missed that point. Thanks for the clarification.

Re: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

by Guest » Wed Sep 06, 2017 9:21 pm

How about nuke every square centimeter of North Korea? Why go limited? In WW2, a decision was made to drop two atomic bombs on Japan and end the war because even though America had thrown its entire economic might behind the war effort, a lot of people felt America still lacked the might to take mainland Japan. With America's collapsing tax base and social discord at home, it's best to destroy incinerate North Korea entirely. America no longer has the means to fight a protracted war on the Korean peninsula.

Go large or go home.

Re: 6-Sep-17 World View -- North Korea and Russia continue to incite a new Korean War

by Coordinated fires » Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:06 pm

jmm1184 wrote:
China's generational era in this war is unclear, mostly due to its size. Apparently they were already engaged in a war with the Mongols when this broke out, so it may be that at least North China was already engaged in a crisis war.

At the very least, the war is important in that it consisted of a direct challenge from Japan to the authority of China as the supreme hegemon of East Asia, and is highly significant in Korea as a fight for its survival.
For what it's worth, I think noting the dichotomy between north and south china is probably wise. right through to the end of the 13th century china was under two separate dynasties (Song/Jin dynasties etc), it's likely the dynamic persisted unto the 1500s enough to put them on different timelines.

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