jmm1184 wrote:
> So how does that work? It just seems like far too long for the
> generational forces to be unreconciled, especially if the
> generational awakening climax occurs after the 58 year panic,
> which implies the older generations have died off or retired to
> the point of no longer having influence over a society's
> direction. Ergo, no more generational conflict between the crisis
> war and post-crisis war generations.
Well, let's look at the Regeneracy events. We live in a time when
countries like Mexico, Russia, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Morocco are
going to have their next crisis war almost 100 years after the climax
of the last one, which means that the Regeneracy occurs almost 100
years after the climax, instead of at 58 years. If that's possible,
then the Awakening climax could certainly do something similar. In
both cases they're rare outlier events, but there's no reason why it
can't happen that way.
Or here's another way of looking at it. All of the events in
the generational timeline are mostly generated by the timeline
itself -- generational boundaries and even the crisis climax
have to occur at fairly fixed times related to other events in
the timeline.
But not the Awakening climax or the Regeneracy. Both of these
are affected, and perhaps triggered, by exogenous events -- events
outside the timeline itself. That fact alone makes them different
from the other timeline events, and indicates that they're not
restricted in time.
In fact, maybe we should generalize. What other exogenous events
affect the timeline? Maybe there's a way of defining and classifying
them, so that the Awakening climax and the Regeneracy are nothing
special, but just two of a series of events that occur from one crisis
war to the next that have some effect on the generational timeline.
jmm1184 wrote:
> This issue has also troubled me. The Irish potato famine is a
> great puzzle, because there does not appear to have been any
> genocidal violence associated with it, and yet the effect it had
> on Ireland and the Irish collective memory is that of a crisis
> war.
> Famines have always been very interesting, because some of them
> seem to have been of such a great magnitude that they caused a
> first-turning reset. The famine of 1876-1878 in South India is
> another famine that I suspect may have caused a first-turning
> reset. But I couldn't tell you why, which is why I'm hesitant to
> conclusively declare it a "crisis war" - because there was no
> genocidal violence involved. It doesn't make sense why some
> famines, like the Irish potato famine, would cause a first-turning
> reset, while most famines do not.
Whether any event causes a first turning reset depends on the how
thoroughly the existing generational infrastructure is destroyed.
I've hypothesized in the past that the likelihood of a first turning
reset is related to the percentage of the population that consists of
survivors of the previous crisis war (usually heroes and nomads). So
if the percentage is high, then a small war or small famine won't
cause a first turning reset, but if the percentage is low, then it
might. There's a lot to analyze here, but that's the hypothesis.