Guest JP wrote:
> Is China planning to fight a multi-front front war? Or are they
> just misjudging the situation?
> When the 100 days President Trump gave the Chinese is up on July
> 17th, do you anticipate military action against North Korea?
> George Friedman thinks China will do nothing if America attacks
> North Korea. I don't think China would want to tangle with America
> at this point, but who knows what the Chinese are thinking?
> I can't make heads or tails of any of this.
> If China was planning to defend North Korea, why start a fight
> with the Indians?
> Is this 4D chess? (Whatever 4/D chess means...) Do you think
> people are just playing this by ear, or is this part of a larger
> strategy? Or is this just a train derailing off a bridge over a
> deep chasm?
> Help me out on this one, John.
In my opinion, things will stay relatively quiet unless and until
North Korea tests another nuclear weapon or another long-range
ballistic missile. If neither of those tests occurs, then the
perception will be that the Chinese have succeeded in convincing the
North to stop.
A new nuclear weapon test would be a major slap in the face from North
Korea to China. So the Chinese are highly motivated to try to stop
North Korea. So if there's another nuclear weapon or ballistic
missile test, that's when the situation would become highly dangerous.
Under Chinese pressure, the North may delay making any such test but,
in my opinion, nothing will stop them conducting one of these tests at
some point in the not too distant future.
Events on the border between India and China and events between
Pakistan and India in Kashmir are completely independent of and
unrelated to the North Korea situation.