Nobody knows what's going on in North Korea. The article I wrote a
couple of days ago is a good example. Kim's wife hasn't been seen in
public since March. You'd think someone would at least know whether
she's dead or not, but the analysts in the Chinese, South Korean
and Japanese media have no idea.
**
http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e161102
Probably the best answer was given by someone else in this
forum a while ago:
thomasglee wrote:
> You are correct and that is still the case, but, we all know that
> north Korea cannot (could not) survive if China would cut them
> off. So some think that China is publicly lamenting about Kim
> while simultaneously buttressing his regime. It allows them to
> maintain an arms length distance and, at a certain level,
> plausible deniability.
> China is more worried about a unified Korea than a collapsed north
> Korea at this point. As you know, if north Korea was to collapse,
> more than likely, the Chinese would move in before the south or
> the USA could (the Chinese already have a good presence in the
> north). However, a unified south Korea, unified under south
> (western) influence, would be disaster for China.
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php ... 153#p32154
Guest wrote:
> Do you see any time line forming on the war in Asia yet? How long
> could this situation drag out? It seems to me that Korea will be
> in a war in a matter of months. Could the next war in Korea be
> contained to just the Korean peninsula, like the first Korean
> war?
You're right that the Korean peninsula is headed for war, but it's
impossible to predict what event will trigger it, or when that will
happen. The analogy is to the "straw that breaks the camel's back":
You know that if you keep piling straw on the camel's back, then it
will break, but you can't predict which straw will do it.
However, when war does hit, it certainly won't be confined to just the
Korean peninsula. The 1950s Korean War was fought during a
generational Recovery era (First Turning). Today we're in a
generational Crisis era (Fourth Turning), so there's no comparison.
Nobody knows what's going on in North Korea. The article I wrote a
couple of days ago is a good example. Kim's wife hasn't been seen in
public since March. You'd think someone would at least know whether
she's dead or not, but the analysts in the Chinese, South Korean
and Japanese media have no idea.
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/xct.gd.e161102.htm#e161102
Probably the best answer was given by someone else in this
forum a while ago:
[quote="thomasglee"]
> You are correct and that is still the case, but, we all know that
> north Korea cannot (could not) survive if China would cut them
> off. So some think that China is publicly lamenting about Kim
> while simultaneously buttressing his regime. It allows them to
> maintain an arms length distance and, at a certain level,
> plausible deniability.
> China is more worried about a unified Korea than a collapsed north
> Korea at this point. As you know, if north Korea was to collapse,
> more than likely, the Chinese would move in before the south or
> the USA could (the Chinese already have a good presence in the
> north). However, a unified south Korea, unified under south
> (western) influence, would be disaster for China.[/quote]
http://gdxforum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?f=9&t=3794&p=32153#p32154
[quote="Guest"]
> Do you see any time line forming on the war in Asia yet? How long
> could this situation drag out? It seems to me that Korea will be
> in a war in a matter of months. Could the next war in Korea be
> contained to just the Korean peninsula, like the first Korean
> war?[/quote]
You're right that the Korean peninsula is headed for war, but it's
impossible to predict what event will trigger it, or when that will
happen. The analogy is to the "straw that breaks the camel's back":
You know that if you keep piling straw on the camel's back, then it
will break, but you can't predict which straw will do it.
However, when war does hit, it certainly won't be confined to just the
Korean peninsula. The 1950s Korean War was fought during a
generational Recovery era (First Turning). Today we're in a
generational Crisis era (Fourth Turning), so there's no comparison.