by NoOneImportant » Sat Nov 08, 2014 11:58 am
Enjoy, Marvyguy, the comments.
Couple of thoughts.
Much as Putin might want to go back in time. He can't. The Soviet Union is gone, and it's gone forever - no matter how much Putin may wish it were not so. If one accepts that, then the questions is: what is happening now? Where is Putin going, and to what end?
Forget the polls. Thugs don't give a damn about the polls - thugs care only about power, look to North Korea as the example. If necessary they - the thugs, i.e., Putin - will execute the pollsters until he gets the polls he desires. The EU's concern about energy is, I think, primarily about the cost of energy not the availability of energy -- but I may be wrong, it's an area that I am not versed in. What is true though is that virtually anything may be had at a sufficient price- that's what black markets tell us. While the EU doesn't desire to have Russia cut off their supply of nat gas, they can, with sufficient cash and time, replace the Russian supply that originates through the Ukraine. Russia, however has a more pressing problem, for Russia is left with few alternatives to the EU for raw cash as the falling price of crude creates an income/cash problem for Putin. More to the point the Chinese-Russian energy deal is an enormous problem for Russia, for,with every falling cent in the cost of oil, the Russian-Chinese energy deal looks less and less desirable to the Chinese, and further aggravates Russia's income problem. When oil was at $100 per bbl the discounted Russian energy deal looked good to the Chinese, at $80 per bbl the deal no longer looks all that good to the Chinese.
Reality in the EU is about being able to sleep at night. The Baltic states, and Poland -- all of Eastern Europe, for that matter -- clearly remember the Warsaw Pact days. The days when anyone might go to sleep one night only to disappear in the middle of the might, never to be heard from again. In those days no one was safe. They - EU - have no desire to return to those times. So what do they do? In the final analysis when dealing with thugs, it ultimately comes down to fight or surrender. I am just not sure whether or not Nato and the EU are still in denial, regarding Putin or not. Nato is starting to look more and more like France's Maginot Line prior to WW-II -- it looked good on paper but ended up being a paper tiger of little practical value. At least so it appears to me, at least without US combat units.
I have personally been surprised that there have developed no overt alliances to aid the Ukrainians. I would have expected Poland, the Baltic states, et al to covertly provide both aid and bodies to the Ukraine - much like happened in the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s. All of the Eastern European states must surely have come to the conclusion that they have little to lose by aiding the Ukraine, for if the Ukraine falls they have to know that they must certainly be eaten next.
Regarding the Russian East I am not sure what to think. It's here that I see Russia's most pressing unacknowleged real jeopardy. Putin either believes that his nuclear deterrent, regarding the Chinese, is sufficient to dissuade the Chinese or he is just grossly ignorant. I don't know which it is, but Putin is a Cold War Warrior so I don't think its ignorance, but you can never tell as authoritarians tend to isolate themselves by executing those who bring bad news, or don't tell them what they want to hear. The recent Russian exercises in the East at least acknowledge that he - Putin - is aware that there is a potential problem in that direction. But it is like Putin is drinking the Chinese Cool Aid, he sees China Eastward looking toward the East and South China Sea, and thus sees, or appears to see little or no Chinese threat to Russia. Yet it is the Chinese who pose the greatest risk to Russia.
Marvyguy search back through some of Guest's posts. He had some definite suggestions regarding Russia. He appeared to have lived there, and appeared to me that he was informed regarding Russia's power structure, and pressing social, and socitial weaknesses.
But, then again what do I know.
Enjoy, Marvyguy, the comments.
Couple of thoughts.
Much as Putin might want to go back in time. He can't. The Soviet Union is gone, and it's gone forever - no matter how much Putin may wish it were not so. If one accepts that, then the questions is: what is happening now? Where is Putin going, and to what end?
Forget the polls. Thugs don't give a damn about the polls - thugs care only about power, look to North Korea as the example. If necessary they - the thugs, i.e., Putin - will execute the pollsters until he gets the polls he desires. The EU's concern about energy is, I think, primarily about the cost of energy not the availability of energy -- but I may be wrong, it's an area that I am not versed in. What is true though is that virtually anything may be had at a sufficient price- that's what black markets tell us. While the EU doesn't desire to have Russia cut off their supply of nat gas, they can, with sufficient cash and time, replace the Russian supply that originates through the Ukraine. Russia, however has a more pressing problem, for Russia is left with few alternatives to the EU for raw cash as the falling price of crude creates an income/cash problem for Putin. More to the point the Chinese-Russian energy deal is an enormous problem for Russia, for,with every falling cent in the cost of oil, the Russian-Chinese energy deal looks less and less desirable to the Chinese, and further aggravates Russia's income problem. When oil was at $100 per bbl the discounted Russian energy deal looked good to the Chinese, at $80 per bbl the deal no longer looks all that good to the Chinese.
Reality in the EU is about being able to sleep at night. The Baltic states, and Poland -- all of Eastern Europe, for that matter -- clearly remember the Warsaw Pact days. The days when anyone might go to sleep one night only to disappear in the middle of the might, never to be heard from again. In those days no one was safe. They - EU - have no desire to return to those times. So what do they do? In the final analysis when dealing with thugs, it ultimately comes down to fight or surrender. I am just not sure whether or not Nato and the EU are still in denial, regarding Putin or not. Nato is starting to look more and more like France's Maginot Line prior to WW-II -- it looked good on paper but ended up being a paper tiger of little practical value. At least so it appears to me, at least without US combat units.
I have personally been surprised that there have developed no overt alliances to aid the Ukrainians. I would have expected Poland, the Baltic states, et al to covertly provide both aid and bodies to the Ukraine - much like happened in the Spanish Civil War of the 1930s. All of the Eastern European states must surely have come to the conclusion that they have little to lose by aiding the Ukraine, for if the Ukraine falls they have to know that they must certainly be eaten next.
Regarding the Russian East I am not sure what to think. It's here that I see Russia's most pressing unacknowleged real jeopardy. Putin either believes that his nuclear deterrent, regarding the Chinese, is sufficient to dissuade the Chinese or he is just grossly ignorant. I don't know which it is, but Putin is a Cold War Warrior so I don't think its ignorance, but you can never tell as authoritarians tend to isolate themselves by executing those who bring bad news, or don't tell them what they want to hear. The recent Russian exercises in the East at least acknowledge that he - Putin - is aware that there is a potential problem in that direction. But it is like Putin is drinking the Chinese Cool Aid, he sees China Eastward looking toward the East and South China Sea, and thus sees, or appears to see little or no Chinese threat to Russia. Yet it is the Chinese who pose the greatest risk to Russia.
Marvyguy search back through some of Guest's posts. He had some definite suggestions regarding Russia. He appeared to have lived there, and appeared to me that he was informed regarding Russia's power structure, and pressing social, and socitial weaknesses.
But, then again what do I know.