19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

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Expand view Topic review: 19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

Re: 19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

by Trevor » Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:56 pm

John wrote:I don't know why Peter Piot's prediction is considered "grim". What
he's predicting is positively cheery compared to what I've predicted.
I'm pretty sure we'll have millions of infections in Africa by the end
of next year, and if it spreads into China as badly uncontrolled as it
is in West Africa, then it will be hundreds of millions. If anything
can trigger a world war, then that can.
I disagree with you on some things, but here, I don't think you're wrong, as much as I wish I could. Millions of people are going to die. It may not effect us too much, but in poor countries where there are wars going on are going to have their population greatly reduced. A vaccine won't be here for years and we still don't know if this will be proven effective.

Personally, I think the worst-case scenario is it ending up in Pakistan. Millions of refugees, constant fighting throughout the country, especially in the northwestern province, and they have densely packed slums that are perfect for infection.

Re: 19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

by gerald » Tue Oct 28, 2014 7:41 pm

John wrote:I don't know why Peter Piot's prediction is considered "grim". What
he's predicting is positively cheery compared to what I've predicted.
I'm pretty sure we'll have millions of infections in Africa by the end
of next year, and if it spreads into China as badly uncontrolled as it
is in West Africa, then it will be hundreds of millions. If anything
can trigger a world war, then that can.
John, the plague that hit the Roman Empire not only decimated a good portion of the population, but also in response to this decline, the elites ( government etc. ) became gradually oppressive, using taxes and regulations so as to maintain their privileges and power. This was a major factor in Rome's decline. If this happens in China or/and India -- well. --- It depends how it plays out. It should be noted that the black death contributed to stopping the advance of Genghis Khan in Europe, even though his troops may have been a contributing factor in the spread of the black death to Europe. It is a little difficult to wage war when your troops are dying from the plague.
--------------------------------------
So in a perverse way Ebola may prevent a world war, because humanity will be preoccupied with other things.--- " Worldwide trade declined, and wars in Europe paused during the Black Death" http://geography.about.com/od/culturalg ... -Death.htm
-------------------------------------

cheers - I guess

Re: 19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

by John » Tue Oct 28, 2014 5:31 pm

I don't know why Peter Piot's prediction is considered "grim". What
he's predicting is positively cheery compared to what I've predicted.
I'm pretty sure we'll have millions of infections in Africa by the end
of next year, and if it spreads into China as badly uncontrolled as it
is in West Africa, then it will be hundreds of millions. If anything
can trigger a world war, then that can.

Re: 19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

by gerald » Tue Oct 28, 2014 4:02 pm

John wrote:
Guest wrote:With cases well into five figures, why is the number of people who have carried the virus outside the three nations unawares still in single digits?
Factors that are specific to Liberia are lack of health care
infrastructure, superstitions, illiteracy and lack of education,
anti-Western hostility, and funeral rites. These are the main factors
that caused the initial spread, and now there's an extremely fast
exponential rate of growth caused by three more factors: Lack of
enough Ebola clinics, deaths of many health workers, and isolation of
Liberia from the rest of the world -- meaning that many new Ebola
patients are literally receiving no care whatsoever.
Hmmm I guess we shall see --- http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-2 ... -hit-china
Ebola Discoverer Warns Deadly Virus Will Hit China


One of the scientists who discovered Ebola has warned that China is under threat from the deadly virus because of the huge number of Chinese workers in Africa.

Professor Peter Piot also made the grim prediction that Ebola would claim thousands more lives in the months ahead.

"It will get worse for a while, and then hopefully it will get better when people are isolated," said Piot, who is in Hong Kong for a two-day symposium. "What we see now is every 30 days there is a doubling of new infections."

He estimated the epidemic would last another six to 12 months.


There will certainly be Ebola patients from Africa who come to us in the hopes of receiving treatment. And they might even infect a few people here who may then die. But an outbreak in Europe or North America would quickly be brought under control. I am more worried about the many people from India who work in trade or industry in west Africa. It would only take one of them to become infected, travel to India to visit relatives during the virus's incubation period, and then, once he becomes sick, go to a public hospital there. Doctors and nurses in India, too, often don't wear protective gloves. They would immediately become infected and spread the virus.
------------------------------
Keep our fingers crossed --- if it does get bad it will get very interesting -- not in a nice way

Re: 19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

by John » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:23 pm

Guest wrote:With cases well into five figures, why is the number of people who have carried the virus outside the three nations unawares still in single digits?
Factors that are specific to Liberia are lack of health care
infrastructure, superstitions, illiteracy and lack of education,
anti-Western hostility, and funeral rites. These are the main factors
that caused the initial spread, and now there's an extremely fast
exponential rate of growth caused by three more factors: Lack of
enough Ebola clinics, deaths of many health workers, and isolation of
Liberia from the rest of the world -- meaning that many new Ebola
patients are literally receiving no care whatsoever.

Re: 19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

by gerald » Tue Oct 28, 2014 2:18 pm

Guest wrote:With cases well into five figures, why is the number of people who have carried the virus outside the three nations unawares still in single digits?
Because it sounds good, correct data? What is that? Massage the numbers to get the outcome you want. Standard operating procedure, just look at the inflation rate and how they change the way it is figured.

The Sun sises in the West and sets in the East, We are the authority! Believe us! Who are you, lowly ones, to question us! --- sarcasm

Re: 19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

by Guest » Tue Oct 28, 2014 12:36 pm

With cases well into five figures, why is the number of people who have carried the virus outside the three nations unawares still in single digits?

Re: 19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

by gerald » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:47 pm

John wrote:
gerald wrote:John - I guess this is an example of statistics and then there are statistics

from your link http://demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf

#830 United States New York, NY-NJ-CT 20,661,000 2014 20,366,000 4,495 4,600 11,642 1,800 2010 N - population per sq mile --------- it states 1,800 people per sq mile

from -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Un ... on_density ---------- list of US cities

#6 New York City New York City New York 8,405,837 302.6 27,778.7 -------------- it states 27,778 people per sq mile

hmmmmmmmmm
One is just the city, the other is the entire metropolitan area.
Your correct, however density is still density even if it is calculated differently by including such things as parks etc. People packed like sardines are still packed like sardines.
Just nit picky

cheers

Re: 19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

by John » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:30 pm

gerald wrote:John - I guess this is an example of statistics and then there are statistics

from your link http://demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf

#830 United States New York, NY-NJ-CT 20,661,000 2014 20,366,000 4,495 4,600 11,642 1,800 2010 N - population per sq mile --------- it states 1,800 people per sq mile

from -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Un ... on_density ---------- list of US cities

#6 New York City New York City New York 8,405,837 302.6 27,778.7 -------------- it states 27,778 people per sq mile

hmmmmmmmmm
One is just the city, the other is the entire metropolitan area.

Re: 19-Oct-14 World View -- Forecasting the Ebola endgame

by gerald » Mon Oct 20, 2014 10:23 pm

John - I guess this is an example of statistics and then there are statistics

from your link http://demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf

#830 United States New York, NY-NJ-CT 20,661,000 2014 20,366,000 4,495 4,600 11,642 1,800 2010 N - population per sq mile --------- it states 1,800 people per sq mile

from -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Un ... on_density ---------- list of US cities

#6 New York City New York City New York 8,405,837 302.6 27,778.7 -------------- it states 27,778 people per sq mile

hmmmmmmmmm

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