11-Jan-14 World View-Al-Assad collaborates with al-Qaeda

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Expand view Topic review: 11-Jan-14 World View-Al-Assad collaborates with al-Qaeda

Re: 11-Jan-14 World View-Al-Assad collaborates with al-Qaeda

by John » Mon Jan 13, 2014 9:02 am

John wrote:
Trevor wrote: > One last question: back in 2011 and 2012, you were saying
> something like every other week that it's likely we've seen the
> worst of the violence, that this is an awakening era meaning that
> the people don't want a war. Now you're saying that Syria has
> reached a tipping point and will likely spiral into a regional war
> because it's taken on a life of its own. What prompted the
> change?
You have to look at what's going on. The two Syrian groups are the
SNC and al-Nusra. Those are the Syrian people. They're fighting
al-Assad who's doing well because of massive arms shipments from
Russia and aid from Hezbollah. And they're fighting ISIS, which
consists of foreign fighters, not Syrians. You have to ask what would
happen if Russia abandoned al-Assad, and if ISIS withdrew. Would the
war end at that point? I believe it would. Right now it's a proxy
war, not a civil war. This is an Awakening era for Syria, and the
Syrian people don't want a war, but the Russian arms suppliers and
ISIS do want a war.

A BBC reporter made an interesting statement this morning on the war
in Central African Republic. He said that in the last few days the
war has gotten worse, because it's been neighbor versus neighbor,
rather than militia versus militia.

This also provides some insight into what's happening in Syria. I
haven't seen any reports of "neighbor versus neighbor" fighting, which
would be characteristic of a crisis war. It's all been "militia
versus militia," which is characteristic of a non-crisis war.

Militia versus militia wars can go indefinitely, and indeed many of
them do go on for decades, with violence alternating with peace
agreements that turn out to be temporary.

But neighbor versus neighbor wars can't go on forever, because
eventually you run out of neighbors. These are the crisis wars that
reach an explosive climax, and then there's a peace through
exhaustion.

So using these criteria, the wars in Syria, Iraq and South Sudan are
militia versus militia, while the war in Central African Republic is
increasingly neighbor versus neighbor, which indicates a crisis war.

Re: 11-Jan-14 World View-Al-Assad collaborates with al-Qaeda

by John » Sat Jan 11, 2014 11:33 pm

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/176097

Officials: Kerry Way Out of His League in Talks

Officials said that U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has 'almost no
understanding of how things work in the Middle East'.

By David Lev

First Publish: 1/9/2014, 7:48 AM

US Secretary of State John Kerry
US Secretary of State John Kerry

After weeks of diplomatic activity, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry
is expected in the coming days to present what is expected to be at
least a temporary agreement or framework for peace between Israel and
the Palestinian Authority, but senior Israeli officials are already
dismissing the plan as “unsophisticated” and “unusable.”

The officials, quoted in Yisrael Hayom, said that Kerry had been
rushing hither and fro in and attempt to hammer out details of what is
expected to be the framework of what he would like to see implemented
in order to pave the way for a final-status agreement. The framework
is expected to lay out the final goals and eventual shape of a
final-status deal, with Israel committing to give up land in Judea and
Samaria, and the PA expected by Kerry to recognize Israel as a Jewish
state and to back off on some of its demands.

But based on Kerry's public statements and conversations with them,
the officials quoted said they don't expect anything useful to emerge
from the process. “Kerry is here in the region a lot, but he has
almost no understanding of how things work in the Middle East.

“As a result, the American plan is unsophisticated, and does not
answer the needs of both sides,” the officials said. “There is no
connection between the positive statements Kerry is making in public
and the details of the deal. He is, to put it mildly, very unfamiliar
with the roots of the conflict, and as a result is incapable of
bringing true solutions to the table. He can't even read maps of the
region properly,” the officials added.

Tags: Peace Process, Yisrael HaYom, John Kerry

Re: 11-Jan-14 World View-Al-Assad collaborates with al-Qaeda

by Guest » Sat Jan 11, 2014 8:33 pm

Reality Check wrote:
Trevor wrote:


Thus, Syria was helping imprison and interrogate Al Qaeda prisoners captured by the U.S. in Afganistan, Pakistan and elsewhere in the world before the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and the pronouncement by President Bush that Iraq, Iran and Syria were the axis of evil.



But I agree, Assad and his government are not good guys just because they sometimes kill bad guys along with everybody else.
The so-called Axis if Evil was mad eup of Iran, Iraq, and North Korea, not Syria.

America has made a mess. The neocons wanted to make the the ME safe for israel, and that's it. The US has defended israeli interests to its detriment. It dishonest to pretend otherwise. The US needs to withdraw from the ME and buy oil from whatever group controls it. They won't embargo the West because the ME has little else to sell. (What are else are ME governments going to sell to finance themselves, pistachios? ) Just walk away. Americans are jobless and broke. Just walk away.

Re: 11-Jan-14 World View-Al-Assad collaborates with al-Qaeda

by Reality Check » Sat Jan 11, 2014 2:25 pm

Trevor wrote:Well, Assad's strategy has proven to be an enormous success.

...

It looks like he'll remain in power, though. The rebels have lost some serious ground and they haven't gotten anywhere near the kind of support Assad is receiving, so I highly doubt that they're going to be able to overthrow him.

...

Assad still looks very week.

His governing coalition included the wealthy and powerful secular Sunni Baathist families who make up the Free Syrian Army. Without them he remains a government without support from any major faction of half the people in his country, the Sunni Arabs.

The U.S. and Russia and even Iran, could live with a coalition government headed by Secular Sunni who were as afraid of the Sunni Fundamentalist as the non-Sunni Arabs in the country.

That would leave the Assyrians, the Alawites, the Christians, autonomous Kurds and the Shia firmly in the governing coalition, and only the Assad Family and the Sunni Fundamentalist outside.

My own suspicion is that the Syrian people, including the Sunni Arabs, under the rule of the Salafi hate them as much as the Assad government. So they are not an existential threat unless the U.S. supplied them air power, and that appears unlikely.

Actively, or Passively, Supporting the Al Qaeda fighters does not really risk much for Assad. The one thing the U.S., Russia, Iran, the Jordanian Royal Family, Kurds and the Shia government in Iraq all agree on, is preventing Al Qaeda from becoming strong enough to threaten them.

Re: 11-Jan-14 World View-Al-Assad collaborates with al-Qaeda

by Reality Check » Sat Jan 11, 2014 1:32 pm

Trevor wrote:
Personally, I'm amazed at just how many people have bought that hook, line, and sinker. I read and listen to comments everywhere that we should be supporting Assad because he's fighting terrorists. He'd supported them in the past and he'll do it again because he knows that many people believe that all the rebels are jihadists and see him as a hero in spite of all of his atrocities.
I believe there is a little bit of historic revisionism in that.

Baathist in Iraq were primarily secular Arab Sunni with some secular Christian, secular Kurdish and secular Shia support.

Baathist in Syria started out being a coalition of Secular Sunni and Secular Alawites and Secular Christians.

The enemies of the Baathist in Syria were the fundamentalist Sunni.

The enemies of the Baathist in Iraq was the fundamentalist Shia.

Thus, Syria was helping imprison and interrogate Al Qaeda prisoners captured by the U.S. in Afganistan, Pakistan and elsewhere in the world before the U.S. invasion of Iraq, and the pronouncement by President Bush that Iraq, Iran and Syria were the axis of evil.

Both the governments of Iraq and Syria relied on secular coalitions to stay in power.

When the U.S. invaded Iraq and destroyed the existing security order, without using enough troops to impose a new security order, well alliances changed.

The civil war in Syria is causing other alliances to change.

But I agree, Assad and his government are not good guys just because they sometimes kill bad guys along with everybody else.

Re: 11-Jan-14 World View-Al-Assad collaborates with al-Qaeda

by Reality Check » Sat Jan 11, 2014 1:02 pm

John wrote:
Incidentally, Debka's newsletter claims that Kerry's peace proposal
demands that the Palestinians accept such settlements and also that
Israel is a Jewish state.
But who will Kerry and Obama allow the Western European and U.S. Media to blame, over and over again, for the failure of the peace talks.

The Palestinians insistence that all Jews leave East Jerusalem and all lands they receive as part of a peace deal, while Arabs from all over the world have a right to migrate into Israel, and their refusal to agree Israel has a right to exist.

Or will Kerry and Obama sit back and let the media report over and over again that Israel killed the peace process by building homes on "Palestinian Territory" without comment.

This is the Mistake the Obama Administration made before, and I will bet they make it again.

Punish your allies and reward your enemies.

Proven formula for self destruction.

Re: 11-Jan-14 World View-Al-Assad collaborates with al-Qaeda

by John » Sat Jan 11, 2014 12:23 pm

Reality Check wrote: > I hope you were just in a hurry on this one John. What was
> actually announced was that Israel was moving ahead with
> previously announced ( years ago ) building plans for "apartment
> units" in existing Jewish parts of Jerusalem and also a much
> smaller number of apartment units in what is commonly known as the
> occupied west bank. The Total of which added up to the "1,800"
> number you claimed were "1,800 new West Bank Jewish
> settlements".
As I'm typing an article, there's always an issue of how much I should
include in each paragraph, where my goal is brevity. I've gone into
these issues in the past, and perhaps I should have this time as well,
and perhaps I will next time. But as a practical matter, the foreign
mainstream press, including the AFP article I referenced, refer to
these as "new" settler homes, and few people seem to care about
Israel's protestations. In fact, Israel's own left wing, as
illustrated by the "Peace Now" quote in the article, opposed the
announcement as a bad idea because it harmed the "peace process."
Almost no one cares about the fact that these homes are on land that
will belong to Israel in any peace agreement.

Incidentally, Debka's newsletter claims that Kerry's peace proposal
demands that the Palestinians accept such settlements and also that
Israel is a Jewish state.

Re: 11-Jan-14 World View-Al-Assad collaborates with al-Qaeda

by John » Sat Jan 11, 2014 5:10 am

Trevor wrote: > One last question: back in 2011 and 2012, you were saying
> something like every other week that it's likely we've seen the
> worst of the violence, that this is an awakening era meaning that
> the people don't want a war. Now you're saying that Syria has
> reached a tipping point and will likely spiral into a regional war
> because it's taken on a life of its own. What prompted the
> change?
You have to look at what's going on. The two Syrian groups are the
SNC and al-Nusra. Those are the Syrian people. They're fighting
al-Assad who's doing well because of massive arms shipments from
Russia and aid from Hezbollah. And they're fighting ISIS, which
consists of foreign fighters, not Syrians. You have to ask what would
happen if Russia abandoned al-Assad, and if ISIS withdrew. Would the
war end at that point? I believe it would. Right now it's a proxy
war, not a civil war. This is an Awakening era for Syria, and the
Syrian people don't want a war, but the Russian arms suppliers and
ISIS do want a war.

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