Generational Dynamics World View News

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Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by guest » Thu Oct 31, 2024 2:51 pm

Trevor wrote:
Wed Oct 30, 2024 4:53 pm
Sadly, I think a civil war is indeed a possibility, though it's not yet set in stone.
I don't disagree that things could go very sideways, but if there's civil war, what would the two sides be?

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by spottybrowncow » Wed Oct 30, 2024 8:31 pm

Trump just did a rally wearing a garbage vest, and it was genius. It was an excellent illustration of Joe Rogan's observation that Trump is an unusual combination of a stand-up comedian and a businessman (mostly a businessman). And there was no doubt that Trump was having a lot of fun doing it, despite the gravity of all that is going on. I really want him to win, and I pray he gets both houses as well. Even if you hate him, he's your only chance to avoid serfdom, whether you know it or not.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Trevor » Wed Oct 30, 2024 4:53 pm

Just about everything I've read on the topic of a conflict with China is "Cold War II." I suppose this makes sense, given those in power today are old enough to remember the Cold War, but not the terrible events of the 1930s and 1940s. The idea of an open war with China is still not one we want to think about.

Israel's strike on Iran indicates they're not nearly as strong as they want the West to believe. While we might not know the full extent of the damage, that Israel took no losses and inflicted substantial damage indicates their vulnerability. Unfortunately, we've spent too long trying to appease them, since we care little about what happens elsewhere in the world, given our domestic problems.

We have the capability for mass production, but our defense industry remains in peacetime mode, their main focus on profits. I don't expect that to change until a direct attack. Drones will likely be important, but we shouldn't overplay their role, either. Contrary to what some believe, Americans are willing to fight. However, we're not willing to endure massive casualties unless it's existential, like after Pearl Harbor. Since we're protected by two oceans and our wars with the Indians were of low intensity, this makes sense.
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What convinces me Trump will in, more than polls, are vulnerable Democrats running from Kamala and broadcasting ads claiming to support Trump on certain issues. The media's going all in on the Nazi comparisons, ignoring that Carter, Reagan, and other candidates held rallies at Madison Square Garden. At this point, though, a lot of people don't care about the media bubble. I'm hoping we don't see bloodshed.

Sadly, I think a civil war is indeed a possibility, though it's not yet set in stone. If Trump is killed after his victory, if the Democrats find a way to negate it, if we see a similar situation to 2000 where it all comes down to Pennsylvania.... 2000 was bad enough. This would be much worse.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Tue Oct 29, 2024 3:45 pm

Sorry for the previous disjointed post. Wanted to discuss a number of things, as it has been a while since I posted.

I will talk about just one topic in this post, although we had discussed it before.

I used to read the Drudge Report. It used to be pretty non-biased and would report on stories that the MSM wouldn't touch. Like the Clinton/Lewinski affair.

It is now COMPLETELY in the tank for Harris. Almost every single linked article is anti-Trump.

I get it that Trump attacked Drudge for daring to cite articles that were derogatory to Trump. Such information is not hard to find, given Trump's background and his nearly unequaled ability to shoot his mouth off without thinking.

Its too bad Drudge doesn't have thicker skin. Something that should be required in the Media. Unfortunately it means Drudge cannot be trusted, not now (obviously given the current slate of, frankly, clearly over the top anti-Trump articles), nor in the future.

He has joined the ranks of MSM advocacy groups, just like MSNBC, the 3 old networks, CNN, and on the other side Fox and One America.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Navigator » Mon Oct 28, 2024 11:45 pm

I do not see either Russia or Iran being allied with the West in fighting China. Both are firmly allied with each other and with China.

Russia may very well have made a deal to trade territory in the East in return for help vs Ukraine.

Israel has decided to play somewhat nice with Iran, and only launched very limited strikes vs Iran. Yet when the wars escalate, I would find it much more likely that Saudi Arabia is on the "anti-Iran" side than any other.

The Chinese economy is in dire straights. The CCP will have to play the Taiwan card. I know we have been saying this for a long time, but how long did people warn about Hitler before he actually invaded another country not handed him by the appeasers.

Meanwhile the West, while seeing how the war in Ukraine is playing out, is not taking action in building drone units. The reason is that no current big defense contractor would make a lot of money that way.

In the US, Trump appears to be headed for victory in the election. Now lets see if the Dems actually hand things over to him, or if they go over the constitutional line.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by FullMoon » Wed Oct 23, 2024 11:30 am

https://youtu.be/03MM0hKGlSc?si=Mf15F7b6a25WbG3D
This short video helps put the Sunni/Sino Axis into view and how it's playing out.
An Israeli attack on Iran will actually precipitate their alliance because they'll both be fighting Sunni Arabs in the same region.
The Chicoms will be forced into action when their oil supplies are cut off from the ME. They're going full bore in the Pacific as we speak in preparation
The Russians too will find that fighting Europe is a war of choice but have already let the Koreans and this Chicoms into their land for an easier conquest of their vast interior and Pacific coast.
Russia and Iran will be aligned with the West and the fault lines are now clear.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by John » Sun Oct 20, 2024 7:51 am

Trevor, thank you for that analysis.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Trevor » Sat Oct 19, 2024 7:15 pm

It's very possible that future generations will consider the beginning of WWIII to be February 24, 2022, when Putin began his invasion of Ukraine. It's impossible to know for sure, but I suspect if the invasion had gone the way most analysts (including me) expected, we'd already be at war with China. It'd only have encouraged the CCP to make their move for Taiwan, but instead, the war in Europe remains a stalemate.

In 1939 and 1940, the Second World War in Europe claimed around half a million lives. This is counting the invasion of Poland, the Blitz, the Fall of France, the Winter War, the annexation of the Baltic States, and the invasion of Norway. Still terrible, but in total, more than 40 million perished in Europe, so this was a tiny fraction of what was to come.

The real slaughter didn't begin until June 22, 1941, the invasion of the Soviet Union. Around 5 million perished within six months, ten times the losses WWII had seen up until that point. Some estimates go higher than that.
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At this time, there was zero interest in getting involved in another war. However, when what was expected to be a long war of attrition ended with France falling in six weeks, Our spending increased more than three-fold between 1940 and 1941.

Right now, NATO is still in peacetime mode, with defense contractors more concerned with money than cranking weapons out as fast as possible. We've increased production to some degree, but there's still no sense of urgency. There probably won't be unless Ukraine collapses; I don't see Europe taking serious action unless that happens. China has a massive industrial capacity, but it's mostly toward low-end goods, not sophisticated components.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by John » Thu Oct 17, 2024 2:24 pm

** 17-Oct-2024 World View: Morning news

The big news this morning is that Israel
believes that it has killed Yahya
Sinwar, the leader of Hamas. Sinwar was
cconsidered the mastermind of the
October 7 attacks. If it is fully
confirmed, this will have a
significant impact on the Mideast.

This leads to the hope, possibly remote,
that with the death of Sinwar th hostages
might be brought home.


Here's another story that almost nobody
is talking about but I think is very
important:

China's economy is in a deflationary
spiral, with both the stock market and
the real estate market falling.

This is spreading to other Asian
markets, and may soon spread to Europe
and eventually to America.


China property stocks drop nearly 8% after housing ministry briefing; most Asia-Pacific markets decline
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/17/asia-ma ... jobs-.html

SINGAPORE — Most Asia-Pacific markets
fell Thursday after China's housing
ministry briefing failed to impress
investors, and sent the country's
property stocks plummeting.

The CSI 300 real estate index — which
had gained over 5% on Wednesday — fell
nearly 8%, while the benchmark CSI 300
declined 1.13% to 3,788.22.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng index

was down 1.3% at 20,030 as of its final
hour of trade following a number of
policy announcements from its chief
executive on Wednesday. The Hang Seng
Mainland Properties Index dropped 6.6%.

Japan's Nikkei 225

slipped 0.69% to close at 38,911.19,
while the broad-based Topix was down
0.11% to end at 2,687.83 after investors
assessed trade data out of Japan.

Japan's exports fell 1.7% in September
compared to the same period last year,
surprising economists polled by Reuters
who had expected a 0.5% growth. Exports,
which contracted for the first time this
year, were down sharply from a revised
growth rate of 5.5% in August.

September's import growth came in at
2.1% also missing expectations of
economists who expected growth of
3.2%. The figure was down from August's
growth of 2.3%.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.86% to
end trading at 8,355.9.

Australia's unemployment rate for
September came in at 4.1%, slightly down
from a Reuters poll that expected it to
remain unchanged from August at 4.2%.

Australia's labor participation rate
slightly increased to 67.2% in
September, up 0.1 percentage point from
August as well as forecasts.

South Korea's Kospi ended marginally
lower at 2,609.30, while the small-cap
Kosdaq slipped 0.1% to 765.79.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Company

reported earnings on Thursday after
Taiwan markets closed. Taiex gained
0.19% to end the day at 23,053.84.

Overnight in the U.S., the Dow Jones
gained 337.28 points, or 0.79%, to ended
at 43,077.70.

The S&P 500 added 0.47% to 5,842.47,
while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 0.28%
to close at 18,367.08.

— CNBC's Lisa Kailai Han and Jesse Pound
contributed to this report.

Re: Generational Dynamics World View News

by Trevor » Thu Oct 17, 2024 11:04 am

Good to hear from you, John, despite the circumstances. I know the situation you're in is extremely difficult. Whatever it might mean coming from me, I've learned a great deal about history and geopolitics thanks to your website, so all the hard work is appreciated.

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