27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Post a reply


This question is a means of preventing automated form submissions by spambots.
Smilies
:D :) ;) :( :o :shock: :? 8-) :lol: :x :P :oops: :cry: :evil: :twisted: :roll: :!: :?: :idea: :arrow: :| :mrgreen: :geek: :ugeek:

BBCode is ON
[img] is ON
[flash] is OFF
[url] is ON
Smilies are ON

Topic review
   

Expand view Topic review: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

by Cynic Hero 86 » Sat Jun 16, 2018 2:10 am

North Korea gained all the goodies from this summit with the US getting Nothing in return. There is no way to verify if Kim would actually disarm, the very notion of him doing so is pretty much laughable.

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

by Heisenberg » Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:08 pm

FishbellykanakaDude wrote: ..and Republican Control want's to know, is everything ok with the "alien space craft" from Planet Kim or should we just go ahead and destroy China?

Tell them yes on one and no on two.

Which one was yes, go ahead and destroy China… or number 2?
Aloha!
Just make sure that alien doesn't have an octopus head! :shock:

Pretty cool video! I don't blame Kim for wanting to be a hero after seeing that.

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

by CH86 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 1:13 pm

I firmly believe that China has a "near enemy" doctrine, meaning china intends to eventually conquer ALL of its enemies and rivals but it would attack the geographically closest enemies within Asia itself first. Only AFTER it had conquered those countries would it move against the "far enemies", the western world.

In terms of military doctrines the next major world war would carry over doctrines from the later stages of WW2, The Korean war, the cold war, the Arab-Israeli wars, the Indo-Pak wars, the Iran-Iraq war and both gulf wars. Much like how in WW1 combatants improved upon doctrines first invented during the second half (post-gettysburg) of the american civil war. In terms of military doctrine carryover into WW3; the Vietnam war and the war on terror would likely have little if any influence doctrinally on any future WW3.

The Boomers in their obsession with the lessons of Vietnam and 9/11 are throwing away the lessons of WW2 and the cold war.

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

by Cynic Hero 86 » Thu Jun 14, 2018 12:56 pm

A Chinese war with Japan, India and Russia is what is inevitable. Not a Chinese war with the west. The reasons for this is geographical. China is not a neighbor of any western country however it is stuck with the Japan, India, Russia, Vietnam combination as are those countries are stuck with dealing with China. The West's option is whether to join the war or remain neutral. The Japan, India, Russia, Vietnam combination does not have that option since a compromise with china would mean submission for them.

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

by FishbellykanakaDude » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:50 pm

John wrote:For some reason, everything that Trump does makes sense to me. ...

So let's take a look at some of the media coverage of the summit, and
see if we can figure out what's really going on:
  • "Trump is alienating our allies, including Justin
    Trudeau."
    ...
It's an ancient principle (predating the "cultural split" between the "proto-indoeuropeans" and the "proto-altaic-folk") that you "break the balls" of your allies when contention (or complacency) arises, while you talk honey-words and flaming-ferocity in alternation with your competitors.

If they're allies, they're NOT going anywhere (position wise) because of rightfully getting their balls busted for being complacent with "the big dog".

[*] "Trump gave Kim an important concession -- meeting with him
-- and got nothing in return."
...
The "feministas/Left" do not understand the concept of reciprocity. They only know "give me what I want because you're evil and I'm not, and I therefore am owed my wants!"

Now, that is not actually true, except as a "PR Point" to sell to infantile new true believers they're hoping to recruit.

The use of this technique is a desperate attempt to find SOMETHING to say in response to real "transactional discourse" (negotiation) between Trump and Kim that RESONATES with the "millie idiots", making the "Left" appear to be doing SOMETHING in resistance to "the evil".

[*] "Trump had no nuclear experts with him at the meeting, and
risked making a major technical mistake."
Having an expert
present at the meeting means that you're committed to agreeing with
whatever the expert says at the meeting. Without an expert present,
Trump can say "We'll have the experts work out the details later."
The Khan IS the expert in all things IMPORTANT at any particular time! (I'm rather on a Central Asian kick at the moment, if you hadn't noticed!)

The "IMPORTANT" qualification is important. What is important at the start of negotiations is to suss out reliability. The Khan first tests for the smell of reality on the opponent. The Khan tests the lowliest cook exactly the same as the King of the City Dwellers. Is this someone who will not spin out of control (from anxiety) when a good deal (or a "just" deal) is presented to him?

The smell test lasts 20 seconds. All else during the initial meeting is nicety. Only once a "probably severe anxiety producing" time period (for the cook) has passed AFTER the end of the "interview" is the food either sampled or not.

[*] "The agreement should have been worked out in detail in
advance."
...
That is NOT an option at all. Reality testing must come before transactional agreement.

I, as "savage", have a fish and a club. I meet a "savage" man seemingly like myself with a chicken and a club. I want his chicken, and he wants my fish. Do we talk about fish and chickens?

No. We talk about how one uses a club, and why.

[*] "The final agreement contained no details." That's
intentional. The details will be worked out later.[/list]...
The Khan talks about hopes and dreams. The Khan, a true shaman, is the mediator between what you want, and what you deserve. True humility with the Khan will bestow the gifts of the great blue sky and the bountiful earth.

The cook and the King must believe that the Khan is THE KHAN, and father from which fulfillment of hopes and dreams, and dreads and nightmares, WILL come.

Trump's objective is to get the North to denuclearize. As I said,
everything Trump does makes sense to me, and everything that Trump has
done with respect to this negotiation has been exactly right. If it's
possible to get the North to denuclearize, then Trump has done
everything right.

But the bottom line is that I believe that it's not possible, for
reasons I've given repeatedly in the past. Here's a summary:
  • It's not Kim's decision. It's the decision of his military. As
    I've said before, I believe that if Kim seriously tried to force
    denuclearization, he'd be shot dead by one of his generals.
If convinced, Kim could seize and kill the entirety of "military decision makers" with veritably no consequences.

...a little assistance from the Khan might suddenly appear in that regard! :)

[*] North Korea has spent decades reaching nuclear nirvana, and they
will not give it up now, even if Kim has stars in his eyes.
NK's "institutional memory" resides in those who are easily kill-able by a converted Kim.

[*] The nuclear industry is part of a major military complex that
controls a huge part of the economy. If the North starts reducing the
military, it would be a major economic dislocation for the North.
The righteously weeping King in need of help from his Khan will have his needs met if presented with due humility and reason.

[*] China is still full-on preparing to launch a war with the US, and
North Korea is just a side show anyway.[/list]
The Khan has many things to concern himself with, and stealing the allies of his competitors is one of them in ANY case!

There are basic Generational Dynamics principles at work here.

First, it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a
dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by
generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant,
except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people. The
reason that generational theory works is that population generations
are almost completely predictable, irrespective of what politicians
want. In this case, it means that decision to denuclearize will be
made by the people, not by Kim.
The "mass" of the NK population is tired. There are IN the midst of their GD Crisis Genocide.

They will not push for nuking anyone if their "GOD" is converted
Second, Generational Dynamics tells us that there are many problems
that have no solution. By that I do not mean that no politician has
yet been clever enough to solve the problem. What I mean is that no
solution exists.

The denuclearization of North Korea is such a problem. If there were
a solution to this problem, then what Trump is doing would be a
solution, but it's not, since no solution exists.
The denuking of NK is not unsolvable, but it is largely irrelevant, and may actually be a "problem" that forestalls the truely inevitable "China vs. The West" conflict.

..it may in fact be INADVISABLE to solve the NK problem!

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

by thomasglee » Wed Jun 13, 2018 5:44 pm

John wrote:
shoshin wrote: > Here's the video

> deo Trump presented to Kim. John, isn't it the antithesis of
> Bannon/GD? And the tag line at the end reminds me of that motto of
> the company from "Buckaroo Banzai," YoYo Dyne Propulsion Systems:
> "Where the Future Begins Tomorrow!"

> https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 76882&_rdr
For those who, like me, don't use Facebook, here's the video on
youtube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gUdcCXzpjs

Awesome. I love it.

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

by John » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:37 pm

shoshin wrote: > Here's the video

> deo Trump presented to Kim. John, isn't it the antithesis of
> Bannon/GD? And the tag line at the end reminds me of that motto of
> the company from "Buckaroo Banzai," YoYo Dyne Propulsion Systems:
> "Where the Future Begins Tomorrow!"

> https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 76882&_rdr
For those who, like me, don't use Facebook, here's the video on
youtube

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6gUdcCXzpjs

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

by FishbellykanakaDude » Wed Jun 13, 2018 4:00 pm

shoshin wrote:Here's the video
deo Trump presented to Kim. John, isn't it the antithesis of Bannon/GD? And the tag line at the end reminds me of that motto of the company from "Buckaroo Banzai," YoYo Dyne Propulsion Systems: "Where the Future Begins Tomorrow!"


https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_ ... 76882&_rdr
Hey, Monkey boys,..

May I pass along my congratulations for your great interdimensional North Korean breakthrough. I am sure, in the miserable annals of the Earth, you will be duly enshrined.

..and Republican Control want's to know, is everything ok with the "alien space craft" from Planet Kim or should we just go ahead and destroy China?

Tell them yes on one and no on two.

Which one was yes, go ahead and destroy China… or number 2?


Aloha!

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

by thomasglee » Wed Jun 13, 2018 2:18 pm

John wrote:For some reason, everything that Trump does makes sense to me. That
doesn't mean he doesn't make mistakes, but it still makes sense. And
that certainly wasn't true of Obama, who never made any sense to me at
all, and the results speak for themselves. I believe that the reason
that everything that Trump does makes sense to me is because of Steve
Bannon, who is an expert on Generational Dynamics, and who used to be
Trump's principal advisor, and is now, according to some reports, an
informal advisor.

Very little of the media coverage of the summit makes any sense since
everyone seems to be completely baffled, which is why I make a point
of saying that what Trump does makes sense to me. The pundits on the
left make idiotic claims that Kim is making a fool of Trump. I
remember particularly when Trump canceled the summit a couple of weeks
ago, Nancy Pelosi said that Kim was having a "giggle fit" over Trump's
naivete. This woman is so incredibly stupid, she should be locked up
in order to protect her from herself. But pundits on the right aren't
too much better, since they're equally baffled, and seem reduced to
expressing hope that everything all works out.

So let's take a look at some of the media coverage of the summit, and
see if we can figure out what's really going on:
  • "Trump is alienating our allies, including Justin
    Trudeau."
    Trudeau did something very stupid -- he dumped on
    Trump just as Trump was leaving for the Singapore summit, completely
    undercutting Trump's negotiating position. To preserve his
    negotiating position with Kim, Trump had no choice but to come down
    hard on Trudeau. The message to Kim was: Don't dump on Trump, or
    you'll regret it. Actually, Kim had already gotten that message when
    the NK press dumped on Trump, and Trump canceled the summit, forcing
    Kim to make amends.
  • "Trump is lauding Kim, while he's condemning our
    allies."
    Well, if you want to get someone to agree with you in
    a negotiation, then complimenting him really helps. What's
    interesting about the Singapore meeting is that Kim appeared to be
    looking up to Trump as a paternal father-figure, and Trump was playing
    into that, in order to develop a friendly relationship with Kim. One
    possibility is that Kim is dissatisfied with the older staff in NK,
    and is looking at Trump as more sensible than they are.
  • "Trump gave Kim an important concession -- meeting with him
    -- and got nothing in return."
    I don't even know what this
    means. This "concession" is worthless unless it leads somewhere. You
    have to meet with someone to negotiate with someone. Furthermore,
    what Kim knows is that the gains from this concession can be lost with
    a single tweet from Trump -- as happened with Trudeau.
  • "Trump gave Kim an important concession -- canceling the war
    games -- and got nothing in return."
    This was a very smart
    move. It's not a concession at all, since the war games can be
    quickly reinstated at any time. It also strengthens Trump's
    negotiating position, because when China says, "Kim gave up something,
    now you have to give up something," Trump can say, "I already have --
    the war games. Now it's Kim's turn."
  • "Trump had no nuclear experts with him at the meeting, and
    risked making a major technical mistake."
    Having an expert
    present at the meeting means that you're committed to agreeing with
    whatever the expert says at the meeting. Without an expert present,
    Trump can say "We'll have the experts work out the details later."
  • "The agreement should have been worked out in detail in
    advance."
    That's one way to do it. Trump wanted to do it a
    different way -- meet with Kim on a personal level and work out the
    details later -- that's equally valid.
  • "The final agreement contained no details." That's
    intentional. The details will be worked out later.
Recall that I've said in the past that the North Koreans have had one
and only one objective: Use diplomacy to force the Trump
administration to lift the sanctions, while continuing nuclear weapons
and missile development.

Kim has completely failed in this objective. They had wanted, at this
point, for Trump to be on the defensive, and force him to make a
concession, specifically to reduce the sanctions. Trump has defeated
that objective in advance by canceling the war games.

The only way that Trump could "lose" this summit, is if he suddenly
agreed to remove sanctions. That would be a diplomatic disaster.

Remarkably, the ball is now in North Korea's court to make a
concession -- to provide the details for how they will denunclearize
according to the CVID template -- complete, verifiable, irreversible
denuclearization. If Kim can't come through, then the war games will
be back on, and the situation will return to square one. Also, Kim
would receive extreme paternal disapproval from Trump.

When Trump canceled the summit, the mainstream media were completely
baffled, and the left referred to Trump as a senile, inexperienced
idiot. I wrote that canceling the summit was a major diplomatic
victory for Trump:

** 25-May-18 World View -- North Korea suffers diplomatic defeat as Trump cancels summit
** http://www.generationaldynamics.com/pg/ ... tm#e180525


That turned out to be exactly what happened, as the North Koreans
immediately started suing to get the summit back on track.

Trump's objective is to get the North to denuclearize. As I said,
everything Trump does makes sense to me, and everything that Trump has
done with respect to this negotiation has been exactly right. If it's
possible to get the North to denuclearize, then Trump has done
everything right.

But the bottom line is that I believe that it's not possible, for
reasons I've given repeatedly in the past. Here's a summary:
  • It's not Kim's decision. It's the decision of his military. As
    I've said before, I believe that if Kim seriously tried to force
    denuclearization, he'd be shot dead by one of his generals.
  • North Korea has spent decades reaching nuclear nirvana, and they
    will not give it up now, even if Kim has stars in his eyes.
  • The nuclear industry is part of a major military complex that
    controls a huge part of the economy. If the North starts reducing the
    military, it would be a major economic dislocation for the North.
  • China is still full-on preparing to launch a war with the US, and
    North Korea is just a side show anyway.
There are basic Generational Dynamics principles at work here.

First, it's a core principle of Generational Dynamics that, even in a
dictatorship, major decisions are made by masses of people, by
generations of people. The attitudes of politicians are irrelevant,
except insofar as they represent the attitudes of the people. The
reason that generational theory works is that population generations
are almost completely predictable, irrespective of what politicians
want. In this case, it means that decision to denuclearize will be
made by the people, not by Kim.

Second, Generational Dynamics tells us that there are many problems
that have no solution. By that I do not mean that no politician has
yet been clever enough to solve the problem. What I mean is that no
solution exists.

The denuclearization of North Korea is such a problem. If there were
a solution to this problem, then what Trump is doing would be a
solution, but it's not, since no solution exists.
I am so glad you put out what many of us have been thinking. We also have to remember that the regimes that bolstered norKorea for so long - Russian and China - have all moved on in the world and are now economic powers. North Korea wants the same. Trump handled this meeting masterfully and I am very pleased with the current progress. The future is looking brighter and to be honest, I'd rather have north Korea on our side in the coming war with China than against us.

Re: 27-Apr-18 World View -- North Korea's negotiating position collapses, along with Mount Mantap

by John » Wed Jun 13, 2018 1:26 pm

Trump says "Sleep well tonight!"

Cf Neville Chamberlain. Is that supposed to be some kind of black
humor?

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... th-korea-/

Top