by Guest » Tue Sep 18, 2012 5:25 pm
Why would China seek to provoke Japan, its largest Asian rival?
Perhaps it is because only Japan has the capacity to challenge China's proclaimed dominion over all of the South China Sea, not the Philippines, or Vietnam.
There are two questions that arise: why now, and why Japan?
As to the why now: internal strife within China has been simmering for a number of years with thousands of riots that go unreported occurring yearly. So why would China chose now to press their international needs/desires regarding the S. China Sea. Elsewhere I cited China's desire to redirect that internal strife caused by the immediate internal difficulties of a declining dollar, rising unemployment, and a slowing/declining economy to an external "enemy". Another commenter additionally cited land, women, and resources as additional reasons for China's not easily resolved problems. While land and resources are gradual issues and have been present for some time in China; the lack of marriage aged women is an immediate, acute, and self-inflicted cultural difficulty that will become more pronounced over time, as a generation of men mature who have no suitable women for marriage. War has been used for generations as a method of unifying a disparate population, and it is certainly one avenue to resolve the problem of an excess of males, while at the same time preparing to achieve future extra-territorial claims. With the U.S. Naval power preoccupied with Iran - 4 carrier groups - perhaps China believes that now is the time to "remove" the U.S. presence in Asia.
With regard as to why Japan: to assert China's claim over the S. China Sea China must subordinate Japan. While Japan has large economic interests in China, China no longer feels the "need" for, nor domination of those Japanese interests. If China can subordinate Japan "peacefully", China essentially obviates the U.S. defense commitment to Japan, and prospectively with all of Asia. If successful, it will make those who are allied with the U.S. world wide question the defense commitments of the U.S.; each asking themselves: are the U.S.'s defense commitment in fact worthless. Once that is achieved, China can undermine each of her minor adversaries one at a time - first in Asia, then prospectively further afield.
Why would China seek to provoke Japan, its largest Asian rival?
Perhaps it is because only Japan has the capacity to challenge China's proclaimed dominion over all of the South China Sea, not the Philippines, or Vietnam.
There are two questions that arise: why now, and why Japan?
As to the why now: internal strife within China has been simmering for a number of years with thousands of riots that go unreported occurring yearly. So why would China chose now to press their international needs/desires regarding the S. China Sea. Elsewhere I cited China's desire to redirect that internal strife caused by the immediate internal difficulties of a declining dollar, rising unemployment, and a slowing/declining economy to an external "enemy". Another commenter additionally cited land, women, and resources as additional reasons for China's not easily resolved problems. While land and resources are gradual issues and have been present for some time in China; the lack of marriage aged women is an immediate, acute, and self-inflicted cultural difficulty that will become more pronounced over time, as a generation of men mature who have no suitable women for marriage. War has been used for generations as a method of unifying a disparate population, and it is certainly one avenue to resolve the problem of an excess of males, while at the same time preparing to achieve future extra-territorial claims. With the U.S. Naval power preoccupied with Iran - 4 carrier groups - perhaps China believes that now is the time to "remove" the U.S. presence in Asia.
With regard as to why Japan: to assert China's claim over the S. China Sea China must subordinate Japan. While Japan has large economic interests in China, China no longer feels the "need" for, nor domination of those Japanese interests. If China can subordinate Japan "peacefully", China essentially obviates the U.S. defense commitment to Japan, and prospectively with all of Asia. If successful, it will make those who are allied with the U.S. world wide question the defense commitments of the U.S.; each asking themselves: are the U.S.'s defense commitment in fact worthless. Once that is achieved, China can undermine each of her minor adversaries one at a time - first in Asia, then prospectively further afield.