Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

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Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Thu Jul 23, 2026 8:24 pm

“Think about wherever you’re working, whatever capacity in our firm or elsewhere, how you can be an agent of change, how you can make things better, how you can serve clients in a better way,” Gray said in a recent address to Blackstone’s newest class of analysts, adding they should focus on “this idea of being entrepreneurial.”

Gray has spent 34 years at Blackstone and has seen that philosophy play out firsthand. He credits the firm’s rise to becoming the world’s largest alternative asset manager to preserving the culture it had as a small business when it was founded by Peter Peterson and Stephen Schwarzman in 1985.

“We’re as nimble and entrepreneurial when there’s something new that emerges,” Gray said. “And yet we can continue to do it at a larger and larger scale.”

“The beating heart of the place, that feels the same. Drive, desire to be successful, operate with integrity, be excellent in what we do,” he added.
https://fortune.com/2026/07/22/blacksto ... usinesses/

Blackstone owns tens of thousands of single family homes throughout the US. They are a major part of the affordability problem because of their non-entrepreneurial operations.

If someone wants to know what an entrepreneur looks like vs the crony capitalists at Blackstone, they can read my story about Bob vs Bailout Receivables.

Also, this is pathetic journalism from Fortune. Call it crony journalism.

Starting here: viewtopic.php?p=80965#p80965
Does Blackstone charge high rents on single family homes that are poorly maintained?

AI Overview

Yes, major regulatory actions, tenant complaints, and investigations into Invitation Homes (which Blackstone founded and owned until completely divesting its stake in 2019, while continuing other single-family rental investments like Tricon Residential) indicate a pattern of high rents, mandatory junk fees, and neglected maintenance.

Regulatory Actions and Findings

The Federal Trade Commission (FTC) penalized Invitation Homes $48 million for deceiving renters regarding hidden fees, withholding security deposits for normal wear-and-tear, and delivering homes with broken appliances, rodent infestations, and severe maintenance issues.

Tenants and legal aid groups frequently report "fee stacking," where mandatory utility, smart home, and air filter fees inflate the base rent.

Tenant Experiences and Maintenance

Reviews on platforms like the Better Business Bureau Invitation Homes Profile show mixed-to-negative consensus regarding slow repair windows, half-completed maintenance, and sudden rent hikes.

Regulatory and investigative reports note that algorithmic pricing tools used by institutional landlords are designed to maximize yields, leading to continuous rent escalation even when property upkeep falls short.
Residential homes

In 2013, Gray helped create a business venture through Blackstone called Invitation Homes to buy foreclosed single-family houses and turn them into rentals.[14][15] The Wall Street Journal reported that Gray went on the “biggest home buying spree in history” after the foreclosure crisis, spending $10 billion in the company's first four years.[16] The firm would later come under criticism for its business model, and US Senator Elizabeth Warren criticized Blackstone for "shamelessly" profiting from the 2008 housing crisis.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jonathan_D._Gray
Criticism

Wall Street companies in the rent industry, especially Invitation Homes, have garnered strong backlash from real estate experts and affordable-housing activists for taking advantage of tenants to fulfill investors' pockets; the primary argument is that the corporations are incentivized to keep repair costs low and fees and rent prices high in order to increase bond sales that determine their scale.[9] California Reinvestment Coalition's Kevin Stein derogatorily labeled the business model "securitization of rental income."[9]

An analysis of Census and property data by Massachusetts Institute of Technology researcher Maya Abood of four Los Angeles County neighborhoods where Invitation Homes single-family rents are located show that the percentages of rents it owns in a neighborhood ranged from 10% to up to 25%.[9]

A December 2016 Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta study stated Wall Street rent corporations evicted tenants significantly more than regular mom-and-pop landlords; it reported Invitation Homes evicting 15% of its renters, and the entity it would later merge with, Starwood Waypoint, 30%, and stated being African-American also increased chances of being evicted if under a company like Invitation Homes.[9]

Complaints and horror stories from Invitation Homes' customers have been covered on publications and news stations such as WGCL-TV,[19] CBS Sacramento,[20] The Arizona Republic,[6] and WTVF.[21] Mold, sewage, and water leakage;[9] nails poking out;[20] infestation of vermin such as spiders, cockroaches, and ants;[9] broken appliances such as garage doors, heating systems, stoves, and microwaves;[9] and unfulfilled repair requests are frequent issues.[9] Invitation Homes has raised rents by an average of as much as 10% per year in some markets such as Oakland, California, double the norm for these markets, according to the Alliance of Californians for Community Empowerment (ACCE).[9] There have been three protests at Blackstone's California offices by Invitation Homes tenants organized by ACCE, such as one in October 2017 at Blackstone's Santa Monica headquarters, which involved the tenants placing letters on the desks to hold a meeting with the corporation's executives and stop practices of excessive rent prices, fees, and poor maintenance; the company never got back to them.[9]

Invitation Homes has faced several lawsuits from courts throughout the country.[6] In May 2018, tenants filed a class action against the corporation in the United States District Court for the Northern District of California, with a rationale of excessive rent price increases and fees; they reported being charged $95 if even a minute late on a rent payment, regardless if the company's online payment system is broken, and filing eviction notices that added more "unfair" legal costs, fees, and penalties for them to bear.[9] On July 20, Invitation Homes responded with a motion that stated the class action group and its plaintiff had too little evidence.[9]

Staff of Invitation Homes has responded to the criticisms, including chief operating officer Charles Young who in July 2018 stated the company had an average rating of 4.32 stars out of five from tenant surveys it ran.[9]

Despite Congress passing legislation banning broker's price opinions after the mortgage crisis, a loophole in the law does not apply to bonds of multiple homes and allows Invitation Homes to continue to use them.[9] For the entity, the other firm's BPOs are a less-costly alternative to mortgage appraisal by licensed contractors typical of the housing market; according to an investigation by the Securities and Exchange Commission that started in September 2017, they involve inspections by independent contractors unlicensed to do appraisals, who are only assigned to inspect the exteriors with the assumption that the interiors were already renovated.[9]

One of the single-family securities looked at by Reuters contained 7,024 houses, each of which was making the entity an average rent of $1,538 a month and $985 a year for other fees.[9] Reuters also interviewed five Invitation Homes ex-employees that stated the company spent too little on repairs; the bond data showed it spent a per-house annual average of $1,142 on maintenance, less than the typical $3,100 average most Americans spend for the same services, although the entity responded that the $750 spent on system back-up costs wasn't shown.[9]

In September 2024, Invitation Homes reached a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), in which the company agreed to refund $48 million to customers harmed by its actions, which according the FTC allegedly included "a variety of unfair and deceptive tactics, from saddling people with hidden fees and unjustly withholding security deposits to misleading people about eviction policies during the pandemic."[22] In March 2026, the FTC mailed 444,131 checks to renters who claim to have been misled by Invitation Homes. As part of the settlement, Invitation Homes is required to incorporate mandatory fees into its advertised rental prices, implement fairer procedures for returning security deposits, and discontinue certain eviction practices.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invitatio ... #Criticism

We can offer him an outhouse infested with stable flies at the back of The Dark Age Hovel for 200 a month plus water and sewer fees.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Thu Jul 23, 2026 7:38 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2026 1:35 pm Starting right about now, fewer Stackees will be entering the work force than the Stackees leaving the work force. Think of Stackees as like worker ants who put the extra crumbs they gather into the bank accounts of the kings and queens who own the ant hills. Fewer ant hills and maybe no organized ant hills at all is the so-called "crisis" incoming that is being labeled a crisis that is not.
Have any social scientists ever compared an anthill to a city?

AI Overview

Yes. Social scientists, urban theorists, and biologists have frequently compared ant colonies to cities. The "city metaphor" is one of the oldest and most enduring ways to conceptualize how thousands of independent individuals self-organize without top-down planning to build complex, sustainable infrastructure.

Key Comparisons

Division of Labor: Just as a human city relies on doctors, builders, sanitation workers, and farmers, ant colonies utilize strict division of labor. Ants are born to specific physical castes (like foragers, nurses, or soldiers) that dictate their job for life.

Underground Megacities: When scientists excavated abandoned leaf-cutter anthills in Brazil by pouring 10 tons of cement into them, they unearthed massive "megalopolises". These subterranean cities plunge several feet deep and feature interconnected roads, bypass lanes, nurseries, fungus-cultivating gardens, and recycling/garbage disposal centers.

Collective Intelligence: Early sociologists and economists used the ant colony as a model of commercial society, while modern sociologists note that cities mirror the way ants behave. Both systems scale efficiently—a cell, ant, or person actually requires less energy to survive in a larger, denser community than in a smaller one.

Crucial Differences

Despite these structural similarities, sociologists stress a few fundamental differences:

No Blueprints: Humans build cities with aesthetic intent, blueprints, and central governments. Ants build vast subterranean empires entirely through instinct, relying on simple chemical signals (pheromones) to guide their immediate neighbors without a master plan.

The "Superorganism": Unlike human citizens with individual goals, a mature ant colony is often categorized by biologists as a superorganism. Individual ants are comparable to the cells in a human body; their ultimate drive is the survival of the entire colony rather than their own personal well-being.
In my late teens and early 20s I noticed this in 2 ways. The first was while flying into Detroit and Chicago. When the plane would get ready to make its landing, I'd look out the window and think that the city below resembled an anthill. The second was while driving out of a city the morning after I finished a Summer job. I thought, wow, some of these people will be doing this for the next 40 years and I am one of the only people escaping out of this anthill. I didn't think of them as Stackees at the time, just ants. All I knew at the time was I didn't want to be one of them.

That sentiment doesn't apply to most people. It seems to me that most people are OK being part of the anthill if they can own a home and have a few of the benefits that go along with that. CNN just ran a special report on "forever renters" where they profiled the unaffordability of housing in Cleveland. One woman, I think in her early 40s, who felt that she had worked hard, done most of the right things and paid a quarter million in rent over her lifetime so far asked the question something along the lines of, "If I can't afford to buy a house, then why am I here?" That, I think, would sum it up for a lot of people, maybe somewhere around 50 percent. More and more people are no longer "getting ahead" and that seems to be a point of vulnerability for the anthill, or system if one prefers.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Thu Jul 23, 2026 5:29 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Sun Jul 19, 2026 6:54 pm There's a corollary to this with regard to those who reach the point of recognition that a civilization is in decline. Since the point of recognition can, over the first few decades, be reached upon the realization that things have slowly deteriorated just below a particular person's unique threshold of comfort, the person who has recently reached this point will almost surely think that if we can just do (fill in the blank) that the decline can be reversed. It can't.
Higgenbotham wrote: Sat Jul 18, 2026 4:47 pm A big picture core conclusion is that over the past 80 years, what it takes to be a person of influence, whether it be in technology, government, media or any position of authority or responsibility is more and more wide ranging and random in terms of the person's qualifications to be there - to be supervising employees, to be offering advice to colleagues, to be running a major technology company, to have great wealth, to have the ability to make weapons of destruction, to be making decisions that affect large numbers of people, to be quoted, to be given public money, or whatever.
How apocalyptic worldviews are moving from the fringes to the corridors of power
Published: July 14, 2026 11:50am EDT
Research has shown that people are more willing to support extraordinary measures when they believe they face an existential threat. It has also been shown that political leaders’ psychological dispositions matter more in times of uncertainty. The unforeseeable effects of technological and environmental transformation create risks and anxiety – and the danger is that leaders treat opponents, social movements or minority groups as mythical foes.

End-times politics then becomes a struggle over the definition of the ultimate threat to humankind. We are in a time when humans face multiple risks. These worldviews eventually determine how national politics and geopolitics evolve.

There is another reason to pay attention. For much of the modern era, the most influential people were elected leaders and state officials. Today, a novel type of leader has emerged: technology executives with wealth and media influence.
https://theconversation.com/how-apocaly ... wer-286581

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Wed Jul 22, 2026 8:51 pm

Data points populated as free cash flow will sort the dregs sooner then later.
Food and Energy sweeps as the arrogated managers asked one actual expert
what substance are you on. The conceit was typical as Hayek described. The three decade analyst
smiled at the "Corporate" antagonism projection.
As for now the occupied space LLM is what we forwarded as even into wheel chairs they
will go arrogated as cognitive dissonance as H had presented a sound structured view in the Maintenance
phase and descending preferences of action items labeled non productive assets also labeled jail breaks.
For now into the September reference date we monitor the effect as trading volume and open interest have migrated entirely to
September, while the August contract sees negligible activity as it approaches its final trading days prior to physical delivery obligations.
Not to put a bias imprint into this entertainment as crack spreads and demand destruction from inflation targeting.
To put simply data fragility and lethargic preferences in transfer costs for descending into the terms H has described.
They are running cover for dismissals based on projection profiles they already had.

Oxen could endure lack of water during a desert crossing; it was the dust that killed them. Oracle Capital input losses unmentioned.
The Oxen died from overdrinking after crossing Forty-mile Desert.
The lone remaining steer and team of cows towed then to survive that trip.

The supply-siders will blame "supply shocks" or high taxes for the recession,
Austrians will point to prior monetary inflation and malinvestment as Customer preferences
since they are underwater. Statist will do what they do. Tax since that is what Inflation is.
The cascading maps are repeating. Failure. CEO Looting.
Malinvestment as capital is poured into unsustainable, long-term projects that do not align with actual consumers
or the todays parlance as stakeholders value extraction masked as DCF.
The smart money is said to be the current Bond market to push correct Capex in the space.
Good luck with that. Smart money is long gone from that and those inside cannot convey the stacking is over.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by vincecate » Wed Jul 22, 2026 8:18 am

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2026 3:35 pm ... it appears AI will not be replacing the Stackees as soon as expected?
The existing AI does not learn as it goes. They don't understand how to get weights to update in a useful way as it interacts with the world. So for now the weights are just "frozen". Human intelligence comes from updating the weights and making connections between things. So existing AI is like a kid who knows the whole encyclopedia but can't learn anything new. Not smart as in "quick to learn" but "very knowledgeable". Like having a low IQ assistant who has memorized the whole Internet. Can be a very helpful assistant but probably not the guy you want to run your company.

It seems they need a whole new algorithm beyond LLMs to really get something that is "quick to learn" in the human sense. No way to know how long this will take but I would guess 2 to 10 years at the current rate and maybe 3 to 15 at the funding rate after the coming AI crash.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Tue Jul 21, 2026 3:35 pm

With all the uncertainty about whether Stackees can be replaced with AI, there seems to be a lot of jockeying around happening. Flood the country with H1-Bs or limit them? Open the border or close it? Release a slightly lethal virus (Covid-19) as a test case in the event AI can replace the Stackees to gauge how a larger wipeout can better be done later? Put the "accidental" release of viruses on hold now that it appears AI will not be replacing the Stackees as soon as expected? Start an assisted suicide program? Encourage a higher birth rate? I may be going out on a limb with these questions but it's possible I'm not. I tend to not want to stray too far because there's plenty of factual material and there are many factors which influence decisions. But some of the factual material does point in this direction.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by tim » Tue Jul 21, 2026 2:59 pm

Higgenbotham wrote: Tue Jul 21, 2026 1:35 pm Like all con games, the con game of Stacking, after 55 years, is reaching its natural limits. The population is exhausted, depleted and, in many cases, infertile. The birth rate has been plunging, decreasing the pool of Stackees.
The US labor market may soon face a new crisis: Too few workers
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... 59d09&ei=7

Starting right about now, fewer Stackees will be entering the work force than the Stackees leaving the work force. Think of Stackees as like worker ants who put the extra crumbs they gather into the bank accounts of the kings and queens who own the ant hills. Fewer ant hills and maybe no organized ant hills at all is the so-called "crisis" incoming that is being labeled a crisis that is not.

Where to get new sources of Stackees? What to do? Greed is insatiable. By God, if Stackees can't produce new sources of Stackees, we'll produce them ourselves, dammit! Enter the new con game and wet dream known as Artificial Intelligence. The modus operandi has not changed at all. Build a huge bubble to suck wealth out of. Try to rinse and repeat using large scale pumps and dumps as a model. The twist is this bubble is by far the biggest and most untenable one in the history of the world (my opinion). I guess we'll see how well poking and probing a bubble of this size works out. My prediction is when this bubble bursts, the world will plunge into a new dark age and my personal and new modus
I believe the governments of the western countries are attempting to replenish the stackees by importing immigrants from the third world.

During a fourth turning, where the western world is now, xenophobia is at an all time high making this a recipe for disaster.

The coming crisis could see western nations erupt in civil conflict against the third world immigrants.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by Higgenbotham » Tue Jul 21, 2026 1:35 pm

Like all con games, the con game of Stacking, after 55 years, is reaching its natural limits. The population is exhausted, depleted and, in many cases, infertile. The birth rate has been plunging, decreasing the pool of Stackees.
The US labor market may soon face a new crisis: Too few workers
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets ... 59d09&ei=7

Starting right about now, fewer Stackees will be entering the work force than the Stackees leaving the work force. Think of Stackees as like worker ants who put the extra crumbs they gather into the bank accounts of the kings and queens who own the ant hills. Fewer ant hills and maybe no organized ant hills at all is the so-called "crisis" incoming that is being labeled a crisis that is not.

Where to get new sources of Stackees? What to do? Greed is insatiable. By God, if Stackees can't produce new sources of Stackees, we'll produce them ourselves, dammit! Enter the new con game and wet dream known as Artificial Intelligence. The modus operandi has not changed at all. Build a huge bubble to suck wealth out of. Try to rinse and repeat using large scale pumps and dumps as a model. The twist is this bubble is by far the biggest and most untenable one in the history of the world (my opinion). I guess we'll see how well poking and probing a bubble of this size works out. My prediction is when this bubble bursts, the world will plunge into a new dark age and my personal and new modus operandi is: Flight Attendants, Prepare for Collapse.
Higgenbotham wrote: Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:49 pm My more specific predictions would be:
  • There will be a major global financial panic and crisis. Supply chains will break, resulting in unavailability of critical raw materials and components. Global trade will begin to shut down. As it begins to become apparent that the supply chain linkages are permanently broken, the global interlinked financial markets will shut down and cease to exist. This will all happen very quickly. It will not take years from the initial panic.
  • The focus of governments will turn to controlling their panicked and hungry populations. Due to lack of availability of imported goods and adequate storage "sufficient to reconstitute" a system consistent with nation state government, this will prove to be too little too late and most government will devolve to the local level as populations lose faith in their national governments and the national governments lose the resources and ability to control their populations.
  • There will be no large scale nuclear war. Instead, the population will be culled through starvation, local strife (including settling of long-standing scores) and disease. Wave after wave of pandemics will sweep the world.
  • Similar to national economies and governments, centralized utilities will fail or become so decrepit as to be unsafe and unusable. All centralized utilities including the power grid will shut down permanently.
  • The initial worldwide kill rate during the first couple decades following the financial panic will exceed 90%. The global population will be in the range of a few tens of millions when the bottom is hit in two or three centuries. Similar to the last dark age, the world's largest cities will have a population on the order of 25,000 and a large town will be 1,000.
  • Life during the coming dark age will be similar to the last dark age but worse due to environmental damage and pollution.
The bursting of the financial bubble I think is where the slide into the new dark age begins to accelerate and I agree that it is not too far off.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by vincecate » Mon Jul 20, 2026 10:57 pm

The US stock market is basically one big bet on AI at this point.
The Chinese model Kimi K3 was released Friday and is about as good as the US models and open source.
There are several other Chinese models like Deepseek V4 Pro GA, Qwen 3.8 Max
that should be released very soon and are also about as good as US models and open source (and so very cheap to run).
I think Anthropic and OpenAI are no longer trillion dollar companies. Don't see
how they can go public. So then OpenAI has no chance to give Oracle the $300 billion
they promised. So Oracle has spent real money building data centers but their customer
can not pay, so Oracle is in trouble. Microsoft was giving OpenAI money as an investment
that OpenAI then used on Microsoft's cloud, so Microsoft got revenue. This will stop.
Anyway, I think the bubble is about to go crashing down.

Re: Higgenbotham's Dark Age Hovel

by aedens » Mon Jul 20, 2026 2:46 pm

Mark Twain ‘Never argue with an idiot. They will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience.’
Get hedged. I would consider in our zone 1977 punctuated it on that declination slope.
The few Academics seen it soon after had the actual sense to discuss we are only producing ditch diggers.
That exact date was also recorded. Makes that easy I do all the Wife paperwork so She can or is focused on the
service to the infirm and Widows in Her Group. I gave a brief to one and She could not process it given the levity
and suffering we are seeing in our area of His work.
I have limited Her to a few days as She is finally reading better material of consequences for the last half decade.
The only thing She regrets in my thought map of 47 years is Tactical training to survive the incoming effects
of the consequences unleashed on far to many. I will forward the recent elements in a way a thinking Soul must regard
since rights are from God and not the half wits still pissing in the well they draw from.

I got word one will not be returning to active duty as He was shot in Public Service to our Immediate Community.
I have seen to many good Men and Women disabled but still they serve.

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